1. Arizona’s Water Situation Arizona League of Cities and Towns August 20, 2015 Thomas Buschatzke, Director Arizona Department of Water Resources

2. Water: Front Page News Coverage

3. Choices - Too little too late  25% mandatory reductions (instituted in 2015)  Late adoption of groundwater management regulations (2014) Environmental requirements & lack of storage Arizona v. California & Central Arizona Project  Arizona sued to ensure Colorado River Rights  Arizona was victorious  California gained higher priority through Congressional negotiations authorizing the CAP  California does not take a shortage California’s Water Crisis

4. Why is Arizona not in a crisis? We’ve evolved. Salt River Project 1904 Yuma Irrigation Districts Colorado River Compact 1922 Arizona v. California 1963 Central Arizona Project 1968-1996 Groundwater Management Act of 1980 & Amendments  Creation of Arizona Department of Water Resources  Mandatory Water Conservation Requirements  Drought Preparedness Plan Requirements  Assured Water Supply Program  Underground Storage and Recovery Program & Arizona Water Banking Authority 9.0 MAF stored for future use

5. Arizona’s Water Management Story Year Total Water Use (in million acre-feet) Population (in millions) Gross Domestic Income (in billions) 19577.1maf 1.1 $11.99 20137maf6.58$229.34 Change from 1957-2013-0.1%472%1752%

6. Water SourceMillion Acre-Feet (MAF)% of Total SURFACE WATER Colorado River 2.840 % CAP1.6 23% On-River1.2 17% In-State Rivers 1.217% Salt-Verde.7 Gila & others.5 GROUNDWATER 2.740% RECLAIMED WATER0.2 3% Total 7 MAF Arizona’s Water Supply Annual Water Budget 2013 Source: ADWR, 2015

7. Arizona’s Water Use by Sector (2013)

8. Arizona is not in a crisis, but does face some challenges Driving Forces 15 year ongoing drought Population and economic growth will increase demand for water Short-term Challenges Risks to Colorado River Supply  Shortage on the Colorado River System is likely  Recurring Lower Basin Annual Deficit Medium-term Challenges Water resources in rural areas of the state are more stressed  Primary water source is groundwater  Lack of groundwater regulation  Lack of groundwater data  Rural areas lack the resources to address their issues Long-term Challenges Growing statewide imbalance between existing water supplies and demand projected in the next 25 years and 50 years

9. Short-term Drought Conditions Current: 75% of State moderate to severe conditions August 2014: 98% of State moderate to severe conditions Short-term Drought Status Short–term Drought Status August 12, 2014 Short–term Drought Status August 11, 2015 VS.

10. Drought Emergency Declaration - June 1999  Allows for governmental entities to provide response and recovery assistance to drought stricken areas of the State  Enables farmers and ranchers to request assistance from the Federal Government (Farm Service Agency) Drought Task Force – 2003  Established by Governor’s Executive Order 2003-12  Culminated in adoption of the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan in 2004 Intent to establish a flexible framework to refine drought monitoring process, understand impacts and implement mechanisms to limit future vulnerability Some key elements: drought monitoring system; establishment of drought triggers; requirement for water providers to develop drought contingency plans Most urgent need was rural areas because alternative supplies often limited and local economies strongly impacted by drought Drought Declaration - 2007  Orders continued implementation of the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan and State of Arizona Emergency Response and Recovery Plan May 22, 2015 ICG recommendation to the Governor to keep declarations in place. Arizona’s Historical Drought Actions

11. Colorado

12. 20162017201820192020 Probability of any level of shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 ft.) N47656663 1 st level shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 and ≥1,050 ft) 047464034 2 nd level shortage (Mead <1,050 and ≥1,025 ft) 00192120 3 rd level shortage (Mead <1,025) 00059 Challenges on the Colorado River: Probabilities of Lower Colorado River Basin Shortage Source: US Bureau of Reclamation CRSS Model Run – June 2015

13. Cities & Tribes Cities Industry & Tribes Cities & Tribes Ag Underground Storage CAP 1.6 MAF City of Yuma & Yuma Ag River Cities On-River 1.2 MAF Tribes, Industry, Ag Tier 1 Shortage = 320,000 AF Arizona Shortage in the Near Term Arizona’s Allocation – 2.8 MAF

14. Efforts to address challenges on the Colorado River Drought Contingency Planning ADWR Director serves as Arizona’s Principal on matters relating to the Colorado River (A.R.S. 45-107(D)) Discussions between:  Basin States  Department of the Interior  Other contract holders Goal of discussions:  Restore risks to levels achieved in the 2007 Guidelines  Conserve 1.5 – 3.0 MAF in Lake Mead over the next 5 years  Reduce the risks of Lake Mead falling below 1,000 ft. elevation as we saw in the 2013 model projections Memorandum of Understanding  Central Arizona Project = 345,000 AF  Metropolitan Water District = 300,000 AF  Southern Nevada Water Authority = 45,000 AF  Bureau of Reclamation = 50,000 AF

15. Arizona Water Banking Authority  Over the last two decades the AWBA has stored 3.4 MAF (more than two years’ worth) of Colorado River deliveries to Central Arizona in order to provide back-up supplies in times of shortage over the long term. Mandatory municipal provider drought response plans  Arizona water users have also stored water supplies as a component of their water planning efforts. Statewide Drought Plan Additional Efforts by Arizona

16. ADWR received a petition for the initiation of procedures to designate an irrigation non-expansion area (February 2015)  Requirements within an irrigation non-expansion area Prohibition on irrigating new acres Metering and reporting requirements for most wells that pump over 35 gallons per minute No mandatory conservation requirements Petition signed by at least 25% of the irrigators in the sub-basin Public Hearing held in Bowie– May 16, 2015 Public comment period expired on July 17, 2015  Final water level data made available June 2, 2015  Groundwater model made available June 17, 2015 Director Issued Decision Determining NOT to Designate as an irrigation non-expansion area Challenges in the San Simon Valley Sub-basin

17. Arizona’s Efforts to Address Long-term Challenges Strategic Vision for Water Supply Sustainability Purpose: Identify strategies to help address Arizona’s future water needs and provide a stable economy for the future. Findings: Projected imbalance between 900,000 and 3.2 MAF over the next 25 to 100 years. Strategic Priorities Identified:  Resolution of Indian and Non-Indian Water Rights Claims  Watershed/Forest Management  Weather Modification  Reclaimed Water Reuse  Enhanced Stormwater Recharge  Water Management  Importation of New Water Supplies

18. Arizona is NOT in a crisis! Arizona’s water supplies are resilient because of the choices that we made and actions that we continue to take. Some rural areas of the state are facing challenges due to the local impacts of drought. ADWR will continue to work with rural communities. Arizona has a recovery plan in place to access stored water when needed. ADWR and other Arizona water managers are closely monitoring the Colorado River and taking proactive steps to address the risk of Colorado River shortages and improve the health of the river system. Conclusion

19. Questions? Thomas Buschatzke Director Phone: 602.771.8426 Email: tbuschatzke@azwater.govtbuschatzke@azwater.gov Website: www.azwater.govwww.azwater.gov