1. Delft, 13 October 2011 Marc van Dijk Deltares Flood Forecasting Systems @ Deltares FEWS-IWP

2. Outline Operational Flood Forecasting at Deltares Delft-FEWS: Short overview of the system Use of Delft FEWS in the Netherlands FEWS IPW (Kanalen)

3. ? Properties at Risk…?!

4. Response …

5. Forecasting, Warning & Response Measure- ments WarningResponse Forecasting Simulation From data to information… Key Questions… More lead time? More accurate? Risk of flooding due to levee failure? DELTARES

6. DELFT FEWS – flow forecasting shell Philosophy Framework for organisation for the flood forecasting process Integration of data from several sources - present single source to forecaster Provides general functional utilities Open interface to models used for forecasting Dissemination of results Delft FEWS is an open system – joint development approach

7. Providing the forecaster an interface to data… Simple graphical user interface Self explanatory Key features GIS Based Overview of data & status FEWS Scotland – flood status in several catchments, January 2008 FEWS Donau (Austria) – Graphs at key stations

8. Integration of data Interfaces to data sources Supports standards in data exchange formats: GRIB, NetCDF, etc. Data exchange with HIMS (e.g. WISKI, HYMOS) Plugin-technology to extend integration of data formats Source code of plugin architecture available on Delft-FEWS Wiki Emerging standards: WaterML – OpenGIS standard for exchange of hydrological data (USGS, NWS, CUAHSI), OpenDAP,..

9. Integrating forecast models Delft FEWS independent of model - Key to philosophy of Delft FEWS Existing models available – used operationally – maintain investment (i.e. SOBEK, HEC) No model available – choose models from wide range – consider suitability & available knowledge base New models from academia – fast track science to operations > 50 models of different nature

10. Using and displaying uncertainty information New techniques are used to include uncertainty in forecasts Quantile Regression (Historic Forecast Performance Tool)

11. Real Time Control Supporting decision-making in forecasting systems RTC Tools is an open source tool for real-time control on hydraulic structure such as reservoirs, flood detention basins, weirs etc. Integration in Delft-FEWS; focus on how decision-making can be supported in forecasting.

12. Examples of Delft-FEWS systems for the Dutch Waterdienst

13. FEWS Systems at Waterdienst Systems for Floods, Droughts and Daily Water Management FEWS-Rivers or Rhine and Meuse floods FEWS-Water management for droughts and water distribution FEWS-Lakes for floods on IJssellake due to wind effects FEWS-North Sea for floods on North Sea area FEWS-IWP for daily management of canals and lakes FEWS-Algue for water quality on North Sea

14. FEWS-IWP Instrument for regulated systems (canals, lakes) Focus on daily management of canals and lakes Water levels, real time control and spills Short lead time (< 1 day) Schematic displays with status information

15. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Twenthekanalen Constructed from 1930-1938 Northern branch in 1953 Total 65 km long Ships for industry supplies

16. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Difference in water levels are large: 25, 16 and 10 meters Three big locks for shipping Levels are fluctuating +/-20 cm around fixed level

17. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen On average 2440 large ships pass the lock at Hengelo in one year. The amount of water that is lost with one locking cycle is about 16.000 m 3. To prevent the canal to run dry in summer diesel pumps can pump the water from downstream to upstream. Capacity of the pumps are 18.000 m 3 /hour.

18. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Lock-keepers only have local information, with focus on: Number of ships passing the lock Water levels upstream of the lock

19. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen On 22 August 2003 there was a big fire at the Vredestein factory Fire fighting water was entering the canal Water contained a lot of chemicals

20. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Information was needed on the status of the Twentekanalen Where was the water flowing to? Can the upper lock of the canal be closed to keep the pollution isolated? How long can we keep the polluted water in this separated zone? Shipping was not possible anymore; for how long? A system was needed that: Collects data from different sources Presentation of data Process the data Can be used to run scenarios (models) Focus on water quantity and quality

21. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen In 2009 we started implementing Delft-FEWS in different steps: Collect and present data from main Telemetry systems (levels, pumps, gates) Check all data feeds, important role for the lock keepers Collect validation rules, warning levels and flow relations Standard FEWS Displays were too complex to understand Schematic status displays were developped

22. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Development of water balance functions for three canal sections Inflow and outflow data is needed from waterboards Rainfall / evaporation data from Dutch Met Office

23. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Water balances are very useful, but complex for canals Difficult to collect all data sources that flow into the canal, small streams have no measurements Difficult to collect all data sources that extract water from the canal Seepage is important and many times unknown Balance errors of 20%-40% is not unusual Good water balance is needed before you start modeling

24. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen A fews days with extreme rain in August 2010 More rain expected Rain came later than expected

25. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Simulation models and an RTC module will be added to give advice to the lock-keepers They will have the opportunity to look 24 hours ahead in time SOBEK simulation model has only a local controller Problem with canals is that ship movements are unknown, but important

26. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Introduction of Real Time Control is next step Give Advice the the lock keepers on how to manage their lock, pumps and gates Use forecasted flows and water levels Use minimum and maximum accepted water levels Use Other criteria such as: minimize pump costs, etc. RTC Tools is used as toolbox in FEWS (and SOBEK)

27. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Spill model is used in Twentekanalen to track a spill: Flow in canal is main input to the model

28. FEWS-IWP: Twentekanalen Work on Twentekanalen needs to be completed in 2012 Other systems are also being developed