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Back to Blue? Shifting Tides in the Tar Heel State SOURCE: www.nationalatlas.gov.

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Presentation on theme: "Back to Blue? Shifting Tides in the Tar Heel State SOURCE: www.nationalatlas.gov."— Presentation transcript:

1 Back to Blue? Shifting Tides in the Tar Heel State SOURCE:

2 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Back to Blue? Shifting Tides in the Tar Heel State The State of North Carolina The Candidates The Campaign The Results SOURCE:

3 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The State of North Carolina Race/Ethnicity 70.5% White 21.3% Black 1.8% Hispanic 6.7% Asian Occupation 36% White Collar 64% Blue Collar Median Income $43.9k Partisanship 34% Republican 45% Democrats 04 Presidential Vote Bush, +12% SOURCE:

4 Figure 1. Republican Strength in North Carolina Federal Elections 1960–2006

5 Figure 2. Republican Strength in North Carolina State Elections 1960–2006

6 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Candidates: Incumbent Elizabeth Dole SOURCE: bioguide.congress.gov Occupation President, American Red Cross, Political Experience Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Transportation, Director, White House Office of Public Liaison, Federal Trade Commission, Deputy Assistant to the President for Consumer Affairs, First Elected 2002 Committees Armed Services Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Small Business and Entrepreneurship

7 Table 1. Congressional Vote Scores for Elizabeth Dole,

8 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Candidates: Challenger Kay Hagan Occupation Attorney Banker Political Experience Senator, North Carolina State Senate, SOURCE: hagen.senate.gov

9 Figure 3. Approval of Barak Obama and Kay Hagan, April 2008-October 2008

10 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Results NOTE: Internet access required.

11 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Salisbury NOTE: Internet access required.

12 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Only NOTE: Internet access required.

13 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Days B NOTE: Internet access required.

14 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Budget Expert NOTE: Internet access required.

15 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Voices NOTE: Internet access required.

16 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Level NOTE: Internet access required.

17 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Factory NOTE: Internet access required.

18 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Votes NOTE: Internet access required.

19 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Market NOTE: Internet access required.

20 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Ineffective NOTE: Internet access required.

21 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Rocking Chairs NOTE: Internet access required.

22 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Firepower NOTE: Internet access required.

23 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Arf (Fibber Kay) NOTE: Internet access required.

24 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Ka-Ching (Fibber Kay 2) NOTE: Internet access required.

25 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Promises (Godless Americans) NOTE: Internet access required.

26 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Promises 2 (Godless Americans 2) NOTE: Internet access required.

27 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Belief NOTE: Internet access required.

28 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Crossed NOTE: Internet access required.

29 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Closer Look NOTE: Internet access required.

30 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Hoax NOTE: Internet access required.

31 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Bear NOTE: Internet access required.

32 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Foreign Language NOTE: Internet access required.

33 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Travel NOTE: Internet access required.

34 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Campaign: Really NOTE: Internet access required.

35 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense The Results

36 Table 2. Selected Exit Poll Results from the 2008 North Carolina Senate Race


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