1. Ocean Measurements from Space: Past, Present, and Future Mark R. Abbott College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University 7 November 2007

2. Overview A few examples of ocean research A mix of agencies and missions The NRC Decadal Survey NPOESS and the Meltdown New opportunities Lost in the shuffle?

3. Uses of Ocean Observations State of the ocean Heat content Ice cover Salinity Carbon Color Sea state Pathways of the ocean Circulation Fluxes, including air/sea and ocean/land Productivity Food and energy resources

4. GCOS List of Essential Ocean Variables Surface:Sea surface temperature, wind speed and direction, sea surface salinity, sea level, sea state, sea ice, currents, ocean color, CO 2 partial pressure Can be divided into requirements for short-term ( “ forecasting ” ) and long-term ( “ projections ” ) applications Although the names remain the same, requirements change significantly

5. An Example of Synergy between Missions Wind forcing (QuikSCAT) Dynamic Response Thermodynamics (Jason-1/Jason-2) (AVHRR, MODIS, TRMM MR, AMSR)

6. A few examples of satellite-based research Eddies and ocean color Coupling between persistent fronts and wind stress Ocean color and photosynthetic potential

7. 01 [mg m -3 ] Kinetic energy [cm -2 m -2 ] Chlorophyll concentration, eddy kinetic energy and alongshore wind stress off Peru and Chile [Pa x 10] wind stress minimum Why do eddies emanate from the low-energy region off N. Chile?

9. Chelton et al. A similar picture is found off the western U.S. coast.

10. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – January 1998. A sequence show high Chl carried offshore for 6 months.

11. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – February 1998

12. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – March 1998

13. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – April 1998

14. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – June 1998

15. SSH contoured over SeaWiFS chlorophyll – July1998

16. This air-sea interaction changes the curl and divergence of the wind stress: the curl of the wind stress creates vertical motions in the ocean (changing nutrients and biology); the divergence creates vertical motions in the atmosphere (changing clouds).

17. The predicted patterns relating the wind stress curl and divergence to the SST gradients (crosswind and downwind) are found over the Tropical Instability Waves, the Gulf Stream (and other WBCs) and the California Current (and other EBCs). The full effects of this coupling in both ocean and atmosphere have yet to be explored.

18. Global & Seasonal Distribution of Fluorescence/[chl a]

19. Deriving Fluorescence quantum yield as a function of seasonal solar irradiance 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 1.00 02004006008001000120014001600 50N 40N 20N Equ 20S 40S 50S Irradiance, μmol quanta m -2 s -1 Fluorescence quantum yield  f derived using Huot et al. 2005

20. How do the MODIS derived seasonal trends in sun-induced chl fluorescence compare with our present models? Fluorescence quantum yield Irradiance, μmol m -2 s -1 Morrison, 2003 Schallenberg et al., submitted Asymmetry between Northern and Southern Hemisphere Stressed Non-stressed

21. A Potpourri of Missions and Agencies Mission types Single flight research missions Multiple flight, improving capability research missions Block series operational missions Agencies Research agencies (NASA) Operational agencies (DoD, NOAA) International partners

22. NRC proposes a “Decadal Survey” to develop a coordinated, multi-agency strategy for Earth observations Proven, respected strategy Astronomy, astrophysics Community-based Focused on identifying key science issues Sets context for relationships between initiatives, phasing, international partnerships New for Earth science Multiple agencies, multiple objectives

23. Decadal Survey Approach Identify consensus science questions for 2005-2015 Make connections between applications and candidate observing systems Recommend prioritized capabilities for NASA and NOAA Identify directions for future planning beyond 2015

24. Interim Report in April 2005 “Today, this system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse” "In the short period since the Interim Report, budgetary constraints & programmatic difficulties at NASA have greatly exacerbated this concern. At a time of unprecedented need, the nation’s Earth observation satellite programs, once the envy of the world, are in disarray.“ January 2007 Final Report

25. Decadal Survey Final Report Overarching recommendation is to renew investment in Earth observing systems and restore US leadership Developed Top 10 science questions, integrated with societal needs Identified missions for both NOAA and NASA in the near-term Identified missions for NOAA and NASA for the next decade (2010-2020)

26. Near-Term Recommendations NOAA Restore total solar irradiation and Earth radiation budget sensors to NPOESS Restore next-generation sounding capabilities to GOES-R NASA Launch Global Precipitation Mission by 2012 Replace Landsat-7 before 2012

27. New Missions 17 NASA and NOAA missions between 2010 and 2020 Seven small missions between $65M - $300M Eight medium missions between $350M - $600M Two large missions between $700M - $800M Transition 3 research capabilities to operations Ocean vector winds GPS occultation Total solar irradiance NASA provides absolute, spectrally-resolved solar interferometer

28. New Missions (cont’d) Two geostationary and 13 polar-orbiting missions Four between 2010 and 2013 Five between 2013 and 2016 Six between 2016 and 2020 Of particular interest to ocean research IceSat-II Hyperspectral sensor in geostationary orbit Advanced ocean altimeter Multi-band spectroradiometer for advanced measurements of ocean color

29. Recommended Missions

30. Recommended NASA Budget

31. Recommended NOAA Budget

32. Since the Decadal Survey Nunn-McCurdy Certification of NPOESS From 6 to 4 spacecraft First spacecraft delayed to 2013 Several sensors dropped or de-scoped GOES-R caught in the crossfire and several capabilities were dropped Concerns raised about continuity and climate sensors Gaps are now inevitable

33. Lost in the Shuffle? VIIRS will fly on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) in 2009 Will fly “as is” Unlikely to meet basic requirements for science- quality ocean color Vector winds QuikSCAT will likely cease operations before new mission can launch Ocean topography Ocean surface topography mission will require NOAA participation as well as NASA All-weather SST Passive microwave radiometer on NPOESS (CMIS) Coastal Waters Imager Hyperspectral imager initially planned for GOES-R Dropped because of cost concerns

34. Outlook NASA and NOAA Better pathway from research to operations Continuing need for research and technology development Gaps will occur Climate observations Recognition of importance of satellite data But still issues of balance between short-term and long-term Climate data records are a perennial issue Reprocessing, calibration/validation Still focusing on physical climate measurements Budgets NASA still balancing space and Earth science Pressures from manned missions NOAA trying to manage long-term operations costs