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Bar-EcoRe WP3: Population distributions. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution.

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Presentation on theme: "Bar-EcoRe WP3: Population distributions. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution."— Presentation transcript:

1 Bar-EcoRe WP3: Population distributions

2 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution Objective of WP3: investigate the effects of future climatic conditions and other environmental or human stressors on the spatial distribution of Barents Sea plankton, benthos and fish populations. 2 components: 1.historical reconstructions and projections of climate scenarios 2.statistical spatial distribution models for plankton, benthos and fish populations

3 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions projecting spatial distributions niche-based models + predicted spatial distribution environment biological response climate forecast/scenario

4 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions A general view of the modelling method adapted from Anderson, 2010

5 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Evaluating uncertainties Scale(s) adaptation future world

6 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions uncertainties in conceptual models spatial distribution geographical attachment environmental conditions density dependent habitat selection spatial dependency demographic structure Persistence species interactions

7 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution Pops. spatial distribution Environmental conditions (climate, habitat, pollution, etc.) Pops. History (demography, size, etc.) Population distribution models (PDMs) Model evaluation & selection PDMs PASTPOSSIBLE FUTURES Environment Pop state Environment Pop state Pops. spatial distribution Climate Fishing Climate Fishing PDMs ensemble modelling

8 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Past and Future climate & other stressors Past ocean climate will come from historical Atlas of hydrographic conditions (FishExchange) for the period Future climate will be derived from downscaled ocean climate simulations for the period Other stressors will not be considered explicitely, but through their expected effects on populations (abundance, demographic structure,...)

9 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Activities Year 1: Data & information assembly (past situations). Development of conceptual models. Experiment with existing tool-kits. Year 2: Numerical formulation and coding for few species. Model evaluations and development of ensemble models. Climate model runs for Year 3: Extension of model development to all species. Input of future climate and biological scenarios. Ensemble forecasts.

10 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Feasibility and limitations Feasibility: Statistical models for spatial distribution do exists (mostly terrestrial) and ready-made tools are currently available (ex: BIOMOD) The statistical modelling activity will be carried out by a dedicated post- doc Limitations: Availability of adequate data (climate & biological) Availability of adequate information (e.g. species interactions) to construct the models Time needed for developing and coding models outside existing tools Computing time for complex ensemble modelling

11 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Connections to other WPs WP1: Community structure WP2: Trophic interaction WP4: Resilience & Early warning Past climate & climate models data and concepts modelled distributions WP3: Population distribution

12 Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Thank you


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