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Market Talk, 25-Feb-2009 Doug Roberts. February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts2 My Talk is Designed To Lead Discussion, NOT a Prescription You are.

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Presentation on theme: "Market Talk, 25-Feb-2009 Doug Roberts. February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts2 My Talk is Designed To Lead Discussion, NOT a Prescription You are."— Presentation transcript:

1 Market Talk, 25-Feb-2009 Doug Roberts

2 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts2 My Talk is Designed To Lead Discussion, NOT a Prescription You are responsible for your own decisions; I bear none I post changes often on BostonIBD – our Google Group

3 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts3 IBD Stance Market in Correction Import: –Generally, be in cash. –Sell long positions that are breaking down. –Avoid taking new long positions. –Short positions are for more sophisticated investors.

4 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts4 Summary Near term selloff – with small caps weak Rally afterwards – over Dow 9,000

5 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts5 Why Russell 2000/Dow ratio Dow has: –Pro: Liquidity –Con: Legacy problems (heavy in financial sector) Russell 2000 has: –Pro: Positive response to low interest rates –Pro: Little to no legacy problems –Con: Poor response to financial market turmoil Import –Short term: despair indicator –Long term: big advantage to small caps

6 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts6 Russell 2000 / Dow Ratio

7 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts7 Dow / S&P 500 Ratio

8 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts8 Dow/S&P 500 Channel Top, Current 976.15% is current channel top Reduce by 0.44%/day after today This is not hard and fast; the type of action is more important.

9 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts9 Pattern Analysis

10 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts10 Period 1: Russell 2000 / Dow Ratio

11 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts11 Period 2: Russell 2000 / Dow Ratio

12 February 25, 2009Market Talk, Doug Roberts12 Current Lack of Turmoil


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