2 Question: In ONE WORD, what is the biggest challenge facing stock market investors and speculators?
UNCERTAINTY Over: Overall market conditions Interest rates Commodity prices Specific company performance Government intervention Odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit Competition Etc. 3
Stock rise an average 7% per annum over time, but not consistently There is a rhythm to asset price movement (cycles) from overbought to oversold, from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic A contrarian can take advantage of this to boost returns and reduce losses 4 Optimism Pessimism Stocks
Has risen 16 of past 20 Septembers September kicks off several of the planets most potent gold-demand drivers 1. The post-monsoon wedding season in India, and Diwali, one of that countrys most important festivals; 2. Restocking by jewelry makers in advance of the Christmas shopping season in the United States; 3. The holy month of Ramadan in the Muslim world, whose end in late September is marked by a period of celebration and gift-giving; 4. And in China, National Day celebration starting October 1 and the run-up to the Chinese New Year in early 2010. 5
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. www.mrci.comwww.mrci.com 6
Sort of works, but its not the end all, you need to play it by ear and look for oversold and overbought conditions to enter or exit Works due to Physical demand for jewellery – and as the bull market has emerged Physical demand has fallen while Investment demand has grown – therefore seasonality isnt as strong now as before The way I would use: if price at significant high/low and coincides with seasonal trend – then use it – if not, dont 10
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