1. The Credit Bubble Big Picture Daryl Montgomery July 9, 2008 Copyright 2008, All Rights Reserved

2. A Multi-Decade Summary Massive credit bubble starting in early 1990s is evident on charts of financial stocks. Bubble almost exactly overlaps Greenspans tenure as Fed Chair (1987 to 2006). This bubble is far more extensive and will be far more damaging than the tech bubble in the late 1990s that got all the media attention (was really just a side show). Many financial stock prices will return to the level where the bubble began. Many financial firms will go under, unless propped up by the U.S. Govt. (Japan used this strategy in the 1990s).

3. International Banks: Citibank(C) 21-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows

4. International Banks: Bank of America(BAC) 37-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows

5. National Bank: Wachovia(WB) 37-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows, 1991 Breakout

6. Regional Bank: National City(NCC) 24-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 lows, 1992 breakout

7. Savings and Loan: Washington Mutual(WM) 25-Year Monthly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows, 1991 Breakout

8. Mortgage Company: Countrywide 23-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows

9. Big Broker: Lehman (LEH) 13-Year Monthly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows; Arrow 1998 High

10. Big Broker: Merrill Lynch (MER) 36-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows

11. Insurance: AIG (AIG) 37-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows

12. Bond Insurance: Ambac (ABK) 17-Year Monthly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows

13. GSE: Fannie Mae (FNM) 37-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows

14. GSE: Freddie Mac (FRE) 19-Year Monthly Chart Green Line: 1998 and 2002 Low

15. GSE: Sallie Mae (SLM) 23-Year Quarterly Chart Green Lines: 1998 and 2002 Lows