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Anthony Goldbloom CEO, Kaggle Predictive modeling competitions Photo by mikebaird,

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Presentation on theme: "Anthony Goldbloom CEO, Kaggle Predictive modeling competitions Photo by mikebaird,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Anthony Goldbloom CEO, Kaggle Predictive modeling competitions Photo by mikebaird, making data science a sport

2 1. Motivation 2. Why compete? 3. How it works 4. R on Kaggle 5. The Heritage Health Prize

3 Global competitions 1½ weeks 70.8% Competition closes 77% State of the art 70% Predicting HIV viral load

4 Mismatch between those with data and those with the skills to analyse it Crowdsourcing

5 5 Countless approaches. Hard to know which will work

6 Additional slides Not MIT, not SAS … UoL?

7 Forecast Error (MASE) Existing model Tourism Forecasting Competition Aug 92 weeks later 1 month later Competition End

8 Existing model (ELO) Chess Ratings Competition Aug 41 month later 2 months later Today Error Rate (RMSE)

9 Our User Base

10 neural networks logistic regression support vector machine decision trees ensemble methods adaBoost Bayesian networks genetic algorithms random forest Monte Carlo methods principal component analysis Kalman filter evolutionary fuzzy modeling Users apply different techniques

11 1. Motivation 2. Why compete? 3. How it works 4. R on Kaggle 5. The Heritage Health Prize

12 Clean, Real world data Professional Reputation & Experience Interactions with experts in related fieldsPrizes Why Participants Compete More fun than Sudoku

13 1. Motivation 2. Why compete? 3. How it works 4. R on Kaggle 5. The Heritage Health Prize

14 Competitions are judged based on predictive accuracy

15 Competition Mechanics Competitions are judged on objective criteria

16 1. Motivation 2. Why compete? 3. How it works 4. R on Kaggle 5. The Heritage Health Prize

17 R on Kaggle

18 R on Kaggle among academics

19 R on Kaggle among Americans

20 Who Uses R and How

21 1. Motivation 2. Why compete? 3. How it works 4. R on Kaggle 5. The Heritage Health Prize

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25 Mmm… how do I put this into R?

26 Some SQL Magic

27 Gives us a flat record

28 Voila, an entry!

29 Photo by gidzy, What could the worlds best analysts find in your data? phone


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