Presentation on theme: "Evidence of a Double Dip Recession June 2010 Daryl Montgomery June 24, 2010 Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not."— Presentation transcript:
Evidence of a Double Dip Recession June 2010 Daryl Montgomery June 24, 2010 Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Fiscal State of U.S. National Debt: $13.10 trillion Unfunded liabilities $109 trillion State and Local Debt $3.05 trillion Budget Deficit $1.6 trillion. The U.S. GDP will NOT increase by this amount in GDP is 14.4 trillion (very overstated) GDP grew 5.6% (2/3 rd less inventory loss) GDP grew 3.0% in Q1 (1/2 inventory gain) The FDIC has taken over 83 banks in There are 702 troubled banks.
Total Federal Outlays:
Bank Failures Last 3 Years
Employment Picture Unemployment rate for May was 9.7% Alternative figure is 16.6% Up to 1.2 million Census workers will disappear mostly in July and August. Reports of Census workers being hired and fired multiple times. Workers leaving work force has kept rate down. Birth/death model and seasonal adjustments.
Weekly Census Employment
Employment Before and After Recessions
Housing Market Not Recovering May New Home Sales dropped 33% to record low 300,000 May Existing Home Sales dropped 2.2% to 5.66 million annual rate. Inventory on market almost 4 million. Housing Starts down 10% in May. Permits down 5.9% in May after 10% drop in April. Fed tax credit was holding market up.
New Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
Leading Indicators Signal Recession ECRI weekly leading indicators peaked in November 2009 and have been heading down since then. Have fallen below zero. Were -5.7% last week. Copper, the most economically sensitive indicator is on a sell signal. EU cutting spending and raising taxes. Will be a drag on world economy.
ECRI Weekly Indicators
Government Financed Demand 1930s vs 2000s
Commercial Bank Loans: % Change From Previous Year