1. Decision Support Services:
A Review of NWS Buffalo Operations following the Crash of Continental Flight 3407
Judith Levan
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Buffalo NY

2. Continental Flight 3407 Operated by Colgan Air February 12, 2009
Departed Newark, NJ at 9:20 p.m. enroute to Buffalo, NY
On Board:
Two pilots
Two flight attendants
45 passengers

3. Continental Flight 3407 February 12, 2009
Bombardier Dash 8
Twin-engined turboprop
Length 107’ 9”
Wingspan 93’ 3”
Fuel Capacity
1724 US gal

4. Continental Flight 3407 February 12, 2009
Last communication with flight 10:17 p.m.
Flight 3407 crashed into a house during an instrument approach to Buffalo-Niagara International Airport. 

5. Continental Flight 3407
50 Fatalities (49 on-board, 1 on the ground)

6. Continental Flight 3407

7. Continental Flight 3407
WFO BUF

8. Continental Flight 3407
Clarence Center VFD

9. 6038 Long Street, Clarence Center
Continental Flight 3407
6038 Long Street, Clarence Center

10. Continental Flight 3407
Lot size:
75’ x 210’
Dash 8
93’ span
107’ long

11. Weather and Forecast Note: WFO BUF Issues TAF Forecasts Every 3 Hours
(Accident occurred at approx 0320z)
KBUF Z 1300/ KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN OVC015         FM G24KT 5SM -SHSN BR OVC020         FM G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060         FM KT P6SM BKN025         FM KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120         FM KT P6SM SCT030
KBUF Z 24015G22KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN021 OVC027 01/M01 A2979
AMD KBUF Z 1303/ G24KT 3SM -SHSN BR OVC020 FM G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060 FM KT P6SM BKN025F FM KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120 FM KT P6SM SCT030=
KBUF Z 24011KT 3SM -SN BR SCT011 OVC021 01/M01 A2981
Note: WFO BUF Issues TAF Forecasts Every 3 Hours

12. How does one react to disaster?
A Review of Support Provided by NWS Buffalo to Emergency Responders

13. Weather Forecast Office
Typically “ramp up” to event
Outlook, Watch, Warning
Conference Calls with Partners
Extra Staffing
Emergency Managers / Responders
React to events

14. NWS Buffalo NY On duty Office remodeled in 2008 Two forecasters
Workstations focus on Situational Awareness Displays

15. Continental Flight 3407 ~10:20 p.m. Accident Occurs
10:00 p.m. Newscast ends with breaking news of a possible plane crash

16. Continental Flight 3407 10:40 p.m. FAA Approach contacts NWS
10:45 p.m. Forecaster calls office
Office begins notifications to Regional Headquarters
MIC and WCM are called
Archiving of data begins

17. Continental Flight 3407 11:30 p.m. WFO contacts AOMC
Initiate Aircraft Incident Report

18. Continental Flight 3407 2:30 a.m. MIC arrives at office 4:30 a.m.
WCM arrives at office
Between 2:00 and 4:00 am – Numerous media sources begin calling
Initial speculation that weather was a cause
All inquiries are referred to the FAA

19. On-site Support
By 6:00 a.m. the NWS had a presence at the EOC and began providing on-site support
Still considered a fire-fighting operation
With no survivors
WCM “to-go” kit included
Laptop
Printer
Aircard
Cell phone
Power Cords

20. Continental Flight 3407
Several forecasters on-station, including the WCM, Incident Meteorologist (IMET) and IMET-trainee, had ICS training
As part of the planning branch, we provided real-time and forecast information
During “down-time” assisted in logging and planning branch activities

21. Erie County utilizes Disaster Lan (D-Lan) for incident management
The program has a weather “page” which displays current conditions, forecasts, radar loops. All of this is NWS data.
Active weather statements/products are also highlighted.

22. Continental Flight 3407 NWS provided weather briefing at ops meetings
(held twice daily)

23. Spot Forecasts An internet-based interactive program
In support of a wildfire – available to any federal, state, tribal or local official
For non-wildfire purposes – available to Public Safety Officials when essential to public safety
43 spots forecasts from 2/13 thru 2/21

24. Spot Forecasts
Focus transitioned as the recovery operations progressed
Initial forecasts: smoke dispersion / HAZMAT releases
Recovery Operations: temperatures/precipitation
Recovery Operations
Heavy Equipment: winds

25. Continental Flight 3407 Recovery Operations took five days
Other than firefighting, no work was done during nighttime hours
“Five day recovery plan” was forced by a Friday 2/13 forecast of rain and snow on Thursday 2/19

26. National Transportation Safety Board
Meanwhile, back at the NWS Forecast Office, support provided to NTSB
Aircraft Incident Reports
ASOS Data (observations)
RAOBs (balloon data)
Other Warnings
Short Term Forecasts
Spot Forecasts

27. Summary Reaction to Disasters Built on Instinct
Instructions To Support Emergency Operations and Station Duty Manuals are Critical
Rely on your “team”
e. g. Regional Headquarters / IMETs
Recent Efforts in Short Term Forecasting and Aviation Support paid off
Situation Awareness Displays and Ops Area reconfiguration were an asset

28. Summary
Prior Rapport Between the Local National Weather Service Office and Emergency Management Community is Essential
Knowledge by EM community of what types of support NWS can provide, including on-site

29. Summary
We were extremely fortunate to have four days of sunny skies and fair weather after the crash.
Community outreach by NWS Staff makes the office a part of the local community

30. Questions?