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COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NO PART OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN ONSENT OF AMDOCS. 1 Practical Approaches for Tracking of Advanced Technologies Amit Kleinmann Director of Advanced Technologies Amdocs Amit Kleinmann Director of Advanced Technologies Amdocs 30 May 2005
2 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Agenda 1.What is an Advanced Technology ? 2.Why Tracking of Advanced Technology is needed? 3.Practical Tracking of Advanced Technologies 4.Summary and Challenges 5.Q&A
3 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Advanced Technologies Spur Cisco's Q2 Growth By Jennifer Hagendorf Follett, CRN Feb. 08, 2005 Continued focus on advanced technologies spurred its growth Sales of its six advanced technologies, grew an average of 40 percent for the quarter compared to a year ago "Our success in advanced technologies is a result of strategic choices we made three to five years ago John Chambers, president and CEO of Cisco
4 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. 4 What is an Advanced Technology?
5 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. The Origin of the Word Technology >tekhnologi Greek >tekhn = skill >logi (= logy) = Science; theory; study >Systematic treatment of an art or craft >Anthropology: The body of knowledge available to a society that is of use in: >fashioning implements, >practicing manual arts and skills, >and extracting or collecting materials The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language
6 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Science & Technology >Science: the observation, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of phenomena >Technology >The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language >The application of scientific knowledge to the practical aims of human life or, as it is sometimes phrased, to the change and manipulation of the human environment Encyclopedia Britannica
7 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. New/Advanced Technology >What is considered advanced technology? >Hi-Tech, Low-Tech, or No-Tech >Sustaining/Legacy Technologies versus Disruptive Technologies >Yet not productized in large scale >Technology maturity >Market readiness >Cost: too expensive (production, TCO) >Innovation >SW technologies >Windows NT - The most flagrant abuse of this word >Hard Disks => Relational DBs >The timing effect
8 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. 8 Why Tracking of Advanced Technology is needed?
9 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. TLC: The S-Curve Concept of McKinsey Example: Data storage media evolution
10 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. The Problem of: Managing Technological Discontinuity >Technologies have reached their limit >Associated products have not reached their growth limit in the market >In the decisive point of time - the new technology has: >a lower level of competitiveness > but higher cumulated R&D expenditures It may seem economically perverse to begin investing in a new technology when there is still a lot of potential left in the old Foster, R.N.
11 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. What does Tracking mean? >Awareness of something occurring or passing >Tracking types >Passive Tracking (observing ) >Active Tracking (following ) >Visible versus invisible >Contribution, Influence
12 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Why Tracking Advance Technologies? >Surveillance of total technological environment to identify: >technologies which may influence companys future >Strengthen the company's competitive advantage >long-term technological developments for monitoring >Gain understanding of technological threats & opportunities >What-if analysis + focus on the core business, e.g., IP Multicast security >New technology is needed to drive growth >Accelerate the development of innovative technologies >Estimation of time scale of technological change >Provide information for reorienting company R&D policies
13 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. 13 Practical Tracking of Advanced Technologies
14 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Selection of The Tracked Technologies >Scenario Analysis - explore alternative futures >Cross Impact Analysis >Relevance Trees >Objectives and sub-objectives >Relevancy weights are assigned to tree elements >by a panel of experts >Delphi Method >Most widely used subjective method >Goal: achieve a consensus of opinion >Committee of expert opinion
15 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Winnowing >Our current knowledge about the world >Focus >Determination of the technology scope >The required depth of technology-understanding >Interdisciplinary >System overview >Efficient filtering >Source evaluation >Divide and conquer >Simulating Annealing
16 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Information Gathering >Consolidating & synthesizing signals from various sources >Sources type >External >Internal >Cost versus benefits >Source evaluation >Relevancy >Key players
17 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. External Sources >Government/Defense/Army projects >The Internet/Web >Portals >Search engines >Mail-lists >Professional magazines & periodicals >Conferences/Exhibition >Large versus focused >Explanations from the experts >Training (tutorials, courses, etc.) >Standardization/Specification bodies >Interference >Examples: ITU; IEEE; IETF/IRTF; Cablelabs; IPDR >Industry consortiums >Examples: >IPMI >WiFi; WiMax >Chief scientist >Informal communication >Friends & Family >Patent archives patft.uspto.gov >Academy >Industry leaders >Vendors >Operators >Leading technology firms >R&D labs >Startups
18 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Internal Sources >Internal publications/Intranet >College articles >Example: Paul Green All Optical Networks >Stakeholders who have firsthand insight into the workings of the business and a good intuition about how a technology might or might not fit >Management >example: XTV >Marketing department >Customers issues >Feedback >Self research >Prototype development
19 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. The Analysis Process >Building the puzzle >Terminology formation >Classification and Taxonomy establishment >Cross reference >Identification of gaps >Evaluations >Market assessments >Technical evaluation >Regulation environment >Prioritization >Knowledge Sharing >Dissemination & feedback >Intellectual property >Evaluation, Patent >Archiving oSignificance of problem Useful, Practical oBenefits Faster, Cheaper, Better oScale Early adopters, Critical mass oKey Players Research firms: Lexis-Nexis; D&B oTechnology Matureness Readiness - degree of technology dev. What does it not do well Ease of implementation Manufacturing cost Resource requirement Skill set requirement Probability of success oExamples: VOIP, IPTV oSeminal patent oFreedom to operate oEnforceable oPortfolio oGeographic coverage oRemaining life of patent
20 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. 20 Summary & Challenges in the Process of Advanced Technology Tracking
21 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Challenges >Selection of the tracked technologies >Reflection of business strategy >Limits of the analyzed technologies >Winnowing >Confrontation with Technical gaps >Uncertainty with regard to the development pattern and performance >Determination of performance measures
22 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. Challenges (continues) >Estimation of the needed R&D expenditures >Resources/Budget >The paradox - the innovator's dilemma >Keeping close to customers is critical for current success >Long-term growth and profit depend upon a very different managerial formula >Risk management >Internal/external investments, spin-offs >Justification >Danger – justification becomes the main task >Build credibility
23 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. 23 Q&A
24 COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS All rights reserved. 24 Thank You For more info please contact:
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