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© Crown copyright Met Office The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Plans for CFMIP-2 Mark Webb (Met Office Hadley Centre) Hadley Centre Seminar, July 2008
© Crown copyright Met Office Acknowledgements Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Sandrine Bony, Chris Bretherton, Helene Chepfer, Steve Klein, Adrian Lock, Brian Medeiros, Brian Mapes, Roger Marchand, Tomoo Ogura, Johannes Quaas, Mark Ringer, Pier Siebesma, Brian Soden, Karl Taylor, George Tselioudis, Joao Teixeira, Keith Williams, Minghua Zhang, Yujing Zhang
© Crown copyright Met Office Outline CFMIP-1 and CFMIP-2 Evaluation of clouds in climate models Understanding cloud feedback mechanisms in models Assessing their physical credibility Project timescales
© Crown copyright Met Office CFMIP-1 ( ) Started by WGCM (WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling) Aims were to identify key cloud-climate feedback uncertainties and to link them to observations ISCCP simulator used to evaluate model clouds quantitatively and expose compensating errors Slab and +2K experiments were run in parallel with CMIP3 AOGCMs Results contributed to IPCC 4 th Assessment report (AR4) CFMIP data used in QUMP/UKCIP08 for structural uncertainty estimates Data are available from PCMDI See for details including publications
© Crown copyright Met Office Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (CFMIP-2) Understanding GCM process/sensitivity studies CRMs/LES/SCMs via GCSS A-Train/ISCCP & simulators Assessment of cloud-climate responses [Full proposal available at: ] Coordinators: Mark Webb, Sandrine Bony, George Tselioudis, Chris Bretherton Evaluation
© Crown copyright Met Office ISCCP tropical cloud regimes Williams and Webb (in press, Climate Dynamics)
© Crown copyright Met Office Cloud regime error metric Williams and Webb (in press, Climate Dynamics)
© Crown copyright Met Office CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud profiling radar and lidar on the A-train CloudSat cloud profiling radar (Stephens et al., 2002) CALIPSO/CALIOP cloud profiling lidar (Winker et al, 2007) Vertical profiles of reflectivities from clouds and precipitation
© Crown copyright Met Office CFMIP Observational Simulator Package (COSP) ISCCP, CloudSat Radar and CALIPSO Lidar simulators Met Office Alejandro Bodas, Mark Webb, Keith Williams IPSL/LMD Helene Chepfer, Sandrine Bony LLNL Steve Klein, Yuying Zhang CSUJohn Haynes PNL/UWRoger Marchand Test release was made Feb 2008 – in testing with 10 models Plans for MISR, TRMM, RTTOVS and microwave modules
© Crown copyright Met Office CloudSat Radar Simulator in MetUM: North Atlantic NWP case study Effective Reflectivity Factor (dBZe) Bodas et al, submitted to JGR
© Crown copyright Met Office LIDAR simulator: CALIOP / LMDz-GCM GCM GCM + SIMULATORCALIOP / GOCCP CLOUD FRACTION LOW MID HIGH (H. Chepfer, S. Bony, JL Dufresne, D. Winker, D. Konsta, G. Cesana, G. Sèze)
© Crown copyright Met Office Hierarchy of CFMIP-2 experiments to better understand cloud feedback mechanisms in climate models Short SST forced experiments Realistic control SSTs (20 years) Aquaplanet experiments (36 months) Single column model experiments (1-2 months) Additional diagnostics to understand response mechanisms High frequency output at selected locations T,q and cloud tendency diagnostics Sensitivity experiments to understand impact of model assumptions on cloud response mechanisms
© Crown copyright Met Office
Do aquaplanets predict climate sensitivity? Brian Medeiros, CSU
© Crown copyright Met Office Climate sensitivity } Brian Medeiros, CSU Do aquaplanets predict climate sensitivity? Total Feedback λ
© Crown copyright Met Office Zhang and Bretherton, J. Climate, 2008 Single column low cloud feedback experiment
© Crown copyright Met Office Cloud AmountCloud LiquidMass Flux NCAR CAM3 – negative SW cloud feedback Cloud amount, convective mass flux, cloud liquid all increase GFDL AM2 – positive SW cloud feedback Small cloud amount change, convective mass flux increases and cloud liquid decreases Minghua Zhang, Stony Brook University Solid: control Dashed: +2k control +2k control +2k control +2k
© Crown copyright Met Office UCLA LES Negative SW cloud feedback SAM LES: Negative SW cloud feedback Cloud Liquid Mass FluxCloud Amount Cloud Liquid Minghua Zhang, Stony Brook University control +2k control +2k control +2k control +2k control +2k
© Crown copyright Met Office Locations for 3 hourly CFMIP-2 output (85) GCSS Pacific and South East Tropical Pacific sections ARM sites/GCSS field studies/locations with feedback spread
© Crown copyright Met Office Joao Teixeira, JPL Diurnal cycle in GCM low cloud cover along GCSS-Pacific cross section (GPCI)
© Crown copyright Met Office Composite analysis of 3 hourly point output Brian Mapes, University of Miami CRM forced by observationsNCAR CAM3 GFDL AM2 NASA NSIPP2 model
© Crown copyright Met Office (Mark Webb, Tomoo Ogura and Adrian Lock) South East Tropical Pacific Section
© Crown copyright Met Office (Mark Webb, Tomoo Ogura and Adrian Lock) control +2K SST response Cloud water convective detrainment (mg/kg/s) cloud water (mg/kg) condensation from LW cooling (mg/kg/s)
© Crown copyright Met Office (Mark Webb, Tomoo Ogura and Adrian Lock) control +2K SST response Cloud water no convective detrainment (mg/kg) cloud water (mg/kg) no condensation from LW cooling (mg/kg)
© Crown copyright Met Office CFMIP-2 timeline 2008 Pilot studies continue WGCM meeting finalises CMIP plans Production releases of simulators Data hosting arrangements in place Modelling groups adopt simulators Joint CFMIP/GCSS meeting on SCM/LES study CMIP and CFMIP-2 experiments run by groups Data submitted to PCMDI Scientific studies submitted for publication 2013 Publication of AR5
© Crown copyright Met Office CFMIP-2 plans: summary Evaluation of clouds in climate models continuing use of the ISCCP simulator in CMIP/CFMIP (metrics) development of new radar/lidar simulators for CMIP/CFMIP Understanding cloud feedback mechanisms in models Hierarchy of lightweight climate change experiments High frequency model outputs Analysis of tendency terms Sensitivity tests Assessing physical credibility of cloud feedback mechanisms Idealised cloud feedback studies with CRM/LES/SCMs
© Crown copyright 2006Page 1 The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Progress and future plans Mark Webb, Keith Williams, Mark Ringer,
© Crown copyright 2006Page 1 The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Progress and future plans Mark Webb (Hadley Centre) and CFMIP contributors.
© Crown copyright 2006Page 1 CFMIP II Plans Mark Webb (Met Office Hadley Centre) Sandrine Bony (IPSL) Rob Colman (BMRC) with help from many others… CFMIP/ENSEMBLES.
© Crown copyright Met Office Towards understanding the mechanisms responsible for different cloud-climate responses in GCMs. Mark Webb, Adrian Lock (Met.
© Crown copyright 2006Page 1 CFMIP II sensitivity experiments Mark Webb (Met Office Hadley Centre) Johannes Quaas (MPI) Tomoo Ogura (NIES) With thanks.
Robin Hogan (with input from Anthony Illingworth, Keith Shine, Tony Slingo and Richard Allan) Clouds and climate.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 Constraining the range of climate sensitivity through the diagnosis of cloud regimes Keith Williams 1 and George Tselioudis.
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)
Robin Hogan Anthony Illingworth Andrew Barrett Nicky Chalmers Julien Delanoe Lee Hawkness-Smith Clouds processes and climate Ewan OConnor Kevin Pearson.
Page 1© Crown copyright Simulation of radar reflectivities in the UK Met Office model: comparison with CloudSat Data Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, M.E. Brooks.
© Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE co-chairs.
Numerical Weather Prediction Parametrization of diabatic processes Clouds (4) Cloud Scheme Validation Richard Forbes and Adrian Tompkins
1 Recent (selected) results from CloudSat and the A-Train Graeme L Stephens Co-op Institute for Res. Atmosphere (CIRA) and Dept Atmospheric Sciences Colorado.
Peter Caldwell, Steve Klein, and Yunyan Zhang (LLNL) Xin Qu, Alex Hall (UCLA) Lawrence Livermore National Lab, CA UW Atmos Phy and Chem Seminar, 1/31/11.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 Initial tendencies of cloud regimes in the Met Office Unified Model Keith Williams and Malcolm Brooks Met Office, Hadley Centre.
International efforts in Climate Modeling Projections, Predictions and Downscaling Coordinated by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) CMIP5: The.
ESA Climate Change Initiative Climate Modelling User Group CMUG
Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 CFMIP2: Options for SST-forced and slab experiments Mark Ringer, Brian Soden Hadley Centre,UK & RSMA/MPO, US CFMIP/ENSEMBLES.
CMUG Climate Modelling User Group Roger Saunders Met Office Hadley Centre.
© University of Reading Richard Allan Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Thanks to: Jim Haywood.
© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office progress report Andy Brown WGNE, Tokyo, October 2010.
Forcing and feedback in the climate-carbon system Jonathan Gregory 1,2, Mark Webb 2, Keith Williams 2, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher 2, Olivier Boucher 2, Piers.
Understanding Feedback Processes Outline Definitions Magnitudes and uncertainties Geographic distributions and priorities Observational requirements.
Robin Hogan Department of Meteorology University of Reading Cloud and Climate Studies using the Chilbolton Observatory.
Current Changes in the Tropical Precipitation and Energy Richard P. Allan Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Thanks to Brian Soden, Viju.
SPARC Themes Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) A Core Project of the World Climate Research Programme Co-Chairs: Ted Shepherd and.
Forecast Verification Research Beth Ebert, Bureau of Meteorology Laurie Wilson, Meteorological Service of Canada WWRP-JSC, Geneva, April 2012.
Robin Hogan Anthony Illingworth, Ewan OConnor, Jon Shonk, Julien Delanoe, Andrew Barratt University of Reading, UK And the Cloudnet team: D. Bouniol, M.
Dust and vapour cloud the view Richard Allan Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, UK Thanks to Tony Slingo, Ruth Comer, Sean Milton,
Robin Hogan, Julien Delanoë, Nicky Chalmers, Thorwald Stein, Anthony Illingworth University of Reading Evaluating and improving the representation of clouds.
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