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Copyright 2012 1 {.html,.ppt} Bled eConference Opening Plenary – 18 June 2012 The First 25 Years.

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1 Copyright {.html,.ppt} Bled eConference Opening Plenary – 18 June 2012 The First 25 Years of the Bled eConference Roger Clarke Xamax Consultancy, Canberra Visiting Professor in Computer Science, ANU and in Cyberspace Law & Policy, UNSW

2 Copyright

3 Copyright In Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital

4 Copyright In Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human makes-five-billion-un-hails-a-yugoslav-infant.html

5 Copyright In Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion

6 Copyright In Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic)

7 Copyright In Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic) The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U2 had its first hit The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now 42

8 Copyright In Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic) The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U2 had its first hit The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now 42 The European Community comprised 11 countries The EU - formed only in is now 17 countries

9 Copyright In Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic) The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U2 had its first hit The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now 42 The European Community comprised 11 countries The EU - formed only in is now 17 countries Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher were in power Mikhail Gorbachev came to power only in October 1988

10 Copyright June nd Bled Conference November 1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall

11 Copyright June nd Bled Conference November 1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall June th Bled eConference June-July 1991 Desetdnevna Vojna (Ten-Day War)

12 Copyright The Early Bled eConferences Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) The exchange of documents in standardised electronic form, between organisations, in an automated manner, directly from a computer application in one organisation to an application in another Admin and accounting applications (e.g. invoices) Operational uses (purchase orders, acknowledgements) Batch data transfers, not online; limited strategic impact

13 Copyright ICT in IBM PS/2 Mac Plus (1MB) Hard-drive option HP 110

14 Copyright ICT in Apple Mac and GUIs had existed for 3-4 years MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years

15 Copyright ICT in Apple Mac and GUIs had existed for 3-4 years MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years Analogue cellular mobile was new, and digital (2G) was several years away

16 Copyright ICT in Apple Mac and GUIs had existed for 3-4 years MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years Analogue cellular mobile was new, and digital (2G) was several years away 2400bps Modems BBS

17 Copyright ICT in Apple Mac and GUIs had existed for 3-4 years MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years Analogue cellular mobile was new, and digital (2G) was several years away 2400bps Modems BBS 10Mbps Ethernet Built-in, plug-and-play 300Kbps Appletalk IBM PCs just beginning to talk to Minis

18 Copyright Inter-Organisational Systems in Airline Reservation Systems (from late 1960s) ATMs (from early 1970s) SWIFT (from 1977) EFT/POS (from mid-1980s) FMIS remained almost entirely intra-organisational (The term ERP wasnt even coined until 1990)

19 Copyright Information Systems A Definition The multi-disciplinary study of: the collection, processing and storage of data the use of information by individuals and groups, especially within organisational contexts artefacts and technologies that are applied to those activities the impact, implications and management of those artefacts and technologies 1990

20 Copyright Intra- Organisational Systems 1990

21 Copyright Strategic IS Theory Strategic IS Theory only emerged Proposition: Smart decisions enable corporations to gain decisive and sustainable competitive advantage Examples: airline reservation systems (1968) IBMs unbundling of software (1969) IBM PC (1981) Ethernet (Early 1980s) GUIs (mid-1980s)

22 Copyright The Scope of the Bled Conferences Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) (5) EDI and Inter-Organizational Systems (3)

23 Copyright Inter- Organisational Systems

24 Copyright Multi- Organisational Systems Inter- Organisational Systems

25 Copyright Star Networks Hub and Spoke Systems

26 Copyright The Scope of the Bled Conferences Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) (5) EDI and Inter-Organizational Systems (3) ––– LANs mainstreamed, Internet arrival ––– Electronic Commerce (9) eConference (8)

27 Copyright Cascading Systems

28 Copyright Extra- Organisational Systems Proc. IFIP World Congress, Madrid (September 1992) ATMs, EFTPOS,...

29 Copyright Extra- Organisational Systems... Add Mobile Devices...

30 Copyright Extra- Organisational Systems... Add Syndication IFIP World Congress, September 1992

31 Copyright Strategic IS Theory Extended Each decision by an individual organisation is just one small intervention within a complex system Significant, sustainable competitive advantage from strategic decisions is uncommon; its mostly luck In many contexts, strategic does not involve competitiveness, e.g. public sector, not-for-profits Many strategic interventions for competitive advantage build on collaborative arrangements, incl. strategic partnerships, common infrastructure Many strategic interventions are much more valuable to the system as a whole than to the organisation

32 Copyright The Bled eConference Middle Period Internet Services Provides exhibited great creativity eCommerce saw many experiments, some successful eGovernment emerged Internet Services investors showed enormous naivety and the Internet Services boom turned to bust Researchers had no difficulty finding interesting companies, sectors and systems to study Success and failure factors were studied, seeking ways to overcome the impediments to adoption

33 Copyright The Bled eConference Themes Bled Electronic Commerce Conference 1996 (09) – Electronic Commerce for Trade Efficiency and Effectiveness 1997 (10) – Global Business in Practice 1998 (11) – Electronic Commerce in the Information Society 1999 (12) – Global Networked Organisations 2000 (13) – Electronic Commerce: The End of the Beginning 2001 (14) – e-Everything: e-Commerce, e- Government, e-Household, e- Democracy 2002 (15) – eReality: Constructing the eEconomy 2003 (16) – eTransformation 2004 (17) – eGlobal

34 Copyright The Bled eConference Mature Period ?? The strong focus on organisational applications and internationalisation has been somewhat moderated As early as 1998, 'the Information Society' theme In 2001, the scope was declared to be 'e-Everything' incl. e-Commerce, e-Government, e-Household, e-Democracy In 2005, a further adaption to the overall theme eConference reflects comprehensive scope, encompassing all aspects of electronic interaction

35 Copyright The Bled eConference Themes Bled Electronic Commerce Conference 1996 (09) – Electronic Commerce for Trade Efficiency and Effectiveness 1997 (10) – Global Business in Practice 1998 (11) – Electronic Commerce in the Information Society 1999 (12) – Global Networked Organisations 2000 (13) – Electronic Commerce: The End of the Beginning 2001 (14) – e-Everything: e-Commerce, e- Government, e-Household, e- Democracy 2002 (15) – eReality: Constructing the eEconomy 2003 (16) – eTransformation 2004 (17) – eGlobal Bled eConference 2005 (18) – eIntegration in Action 2006 (19) – eValues 2007 (20) – eMergence: Merging and Emerging Technologies, Processes, and Institutions 2008 (21) – eCollaboration: Overcoming Boundaries Through Multi-Channel Interaction 2009 (22) – eEnablement: Facilitating an Open, Effective and Representative eSociety 2010 (23) – eTrust: Implications for the Individual, Enterprises and Society 2011 (24) – eFuture: Solutions for the Individual, Organisations and Society 2012 (25) – eDependability

36 Copyright The Bled eConference Critical Success Factors Industry Stream, with multiple parallel sessions (now the Business and Government Panel Track) Business Meetings of International, Regional and National Groups Well-Reputed Supporters, esp. in early years – Milt Jenkins, Doug Vogel, Don McCubbrey Research Stream, with multiple parallel sessions Student ePrototype Bazaars Graduate Student Consortia

37 Copyright Conference Leadership Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor Conference Chair – Joze Gricar (21), Andreja Pucihar (4) Consistency, Continuity in theme, flavour, style and values

38 Copyright Conference Leadership Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor Conference Chair – Joze Gricar (21), Andreja Pucihar (4) Consistency, Continuity in theme, flavour, style and values Research Stream Chair Diversity, Adaptation to the conference community's interests Over 18 years, 16 different individuals have performed the Research Stream Chair role – 9 male, 7 female Chairs affiliations in 9 different countries – Europe (6) – Germany 5, Greece, the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, Switzerland, and the USA, Australia, and Hong Kong

39 Copyright Papers and Authorship >1,000 papers, >2,000 authors Since 1995, 773 refereed papers, 1,800 authors 50 countries on the research program: Australia 389 (22%), Netherlands 260 (15%), Germany 234 (13%), UK 100, Finland 95, USA 71, Ireland 68, Greece 66, Switzerland 61

40 Copyright Papers and Authorship >1,000 papers, >2,000 authors Since 1995, 773 refereed papers, 1,800 authors 50 countries on the research program: Australia 389 (22%), Netherlands 260 (15%), Germany 234 (13%), UK 100, Finland 95, USA 71, Ireland 68, Greece 66, Switzerland 61 On average, on each Research Stream program: 17 countries (range 11 to 23) 55 universities (range 24 to 94) 9 authors not academics (range 2 to 19) 11 papers multi-institution (c. 25%) (range 4 to 21) 7 papers multi-country (c. 15%) (range 1 to 13)

41 Copyright Bled 25 Special Section (1)Reflect on the 24 Bled conferences held to date (2)Focus on a persistent theme (3)Be future-oriented

42 Copyright Bled 25 Special Section (1)Reflect on the 24 Bled conferences held to date (2)Focus on a persistent theme (3)Be future-oriented 27 expressions of interest 9 contributions survived the review process 5 by sole authors and 4 by teams of 2 to 8 people 21 authors, whose affiliations are in 8 countries Australia, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the UK, the USA, Vietnam Complemented by an IFIP WG8.4 Session

43 Copyright Technologies as Themes at the Bled eConference Mainframes, Minis, Micros PCs, Laptops Mobiles, Tablets PPNs and VANs LANs The Internet and VPNs Cellular Networks But Technology has never been the primary focus

44 Copyright Categories of eBusiness (60%) EDI eCommerce (14%) eMarkets, Directories, Auctions SMEs MCommerce, Mobile Apps eMarketing, CRM, Consumer Behaviour eGovernment eHealth 2006, Other (8 clusters) 108

45 Copyright Corporate Perspectives (22%) Inter-Organisational Systems Supply Chain, ECR, Intermediaries Business Models , BPR, Transformation, Alignment, Integration Strategic Alliance, Bus Networks, Virtual Organisations 2004, Other (4 clusters) 47

46 Copyright Research Topics (19%) Adoption, Impediments, Success Factors Trust, Reputation, Risk , Other (7 clusters) 96

47 Copyright Special Section – The Nine Papers Meta-Analyses 1. The First 25 Years of the Bled eConference: Themes and Impacts – Roger Clarke 2. Automatic Semantic Trend Analysis of the Bled eConference: – Heinz Dreher Categories of eBusiness 3. The Use of ICT to support Regional Developments: Contributions from the Bled eConference – Hans-Dieter Zimmermann 4. From MCom Visions to Mobile Value Services – Christer Carlsson and Pirkko Walden Corporate Perspectives 5. Business Models Tooling and a Research Agenda – Harry Bouwman, Mark De Reuver, Sam Solaimani, Dave Daas, Timber Haaker, Wil Janssen, Paul Iske, Bastiaan Walenkamp Years of Research into the Management of eTechnology Projects – Julie Cameron 7. Inter-organizational Information Systems : From Strategic Systems to Information Infrastructures – Stefan Klein, Kai Reimers, Robert B. Johnston 8. Generating Procedural Controls to Facilitate Trade : The Role of Control in the Absence of Trust – Roger W.H. Bons, Ronald M. Lee, Vu Hoang Nguyen Research Topics 9. User Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Contributions from the Bled eConference – Hans van der Heijden

48 Copyright Impact Measures >1,000 papers in hard-copy and CD Proceedings

49 Copyright

50 Copyright Impact Measures >1,000 papers in hard-copy and CD Proceedings 550 papers online at the Conference web-site and in the AIS eLibrary 53 papers (7%) in 13 Special Sections of IJEC and EM plus many more independently, in other journals Google Citations of Bled Papers c. 3,500 of Bled-derived Special Issue Papers, c. 2,000 >10,000 downloads from AIS eLibrary alone, plus conference web-site and uni and personal repositories Graduate Student Consortia, Student ePrototype Bazaars, Research Collaborations, informal exchange

51 Copyright From Past History on to Future History Zimmerman – Proposes more systematic study of eRegion initiatives and of success and failure factors Carlsson and Walden – See mobile commerce at last maturing towards mobile value systems Bouwman et al. – Foresee improvements in tools to support the integration of business model analysis with other notions, especially business process analysis and enterprise architecture Cameron – Shows the need for much more attention to the social and organisational factors that primarily determine project outcomes Bons et al. – Suggest more imaginative balancing between blind trust and controls, in order to overcome impediments to adoption Klein et al. – See the longstanding focus on inter-orgl systems (IOS) gravitating towards an information infrastructure (II) perspective Van der Heijden – Sees user acceptance research moving from surveys of what people say they do, towards observation of what people actually do

52 Copyright Challenges for the Bled eConference beyond 2012 eTechnology Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage Cameras, smart meters, drones,... perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even Smart Dust Internet Traffic Monitoring (Deep Packet Inspection) Biometrics

53 Copyright Challenges for the Bled eConference beyond 2012 eTechnology Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage Cameras, smart meters, drones, perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even Smart Dust Internet Traffic Monitoring (Deep Packet Inspection) Biometrics eTechnology-in-use Virtualisation of Organisational Structures and Employment Data Gathering, incl. Locations, Communications, Content Access, Social Networks Denial of Anonymity and Multiple Identities, Insecure Sig Keys

54 Copyright Challenges for the Bled eConference beyond 2012 eTechnology Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage Cameras, smart meters, drones, perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even Smart Dust Internet Traffic Monitoring (Deep Packet Inspection) Biometrics eTechnology-in-use Virtualisation of Organisational Structures and Employment Data Gathering – Locations, Communications, Content Access, Social Networks Denial of Anonymity, Denial of Multiple Identities, Insecure Signature Keys eTechnology Politics Dominance of economic drivers over social needs Dominance of corporate and government interests over consumer and citizen interests The Social Media Business Model is Anti-Social Control over the Internet by Governments and the ITU

55 Copyright Diversity of Scope, and of Units of Study Economic Perspective: Corporation / Government Agency Industry Segment / Sector Local Region Nation Bloc / Region (EU, NAFTA, ASEAN)

56 Copyright Diversity of Scope, and of Units of Study Economic Perspective: Corporation / Government Agency Industry Segment / Sector Local Region Nation Bloc / Region (EU, NAFTA, ASEAN) Human Perspective: Not-for-profit / NGO / Association Community / Segment Social Group Individual

57 Copyright Information Systems A Definition The multi-disciplinary study of: the collection, processing and storage of data the use of information by individuals and groups, especially within organisational contexts artefacts and technologies that are applied to those activities the impact, implications and management of those artefacts and technologies

58 Copyright The Dangers of Empricism Empiricism says base interpretations on observations Empiricists have to wait for phenomena to stabilise before they can deliver any information of value So empiricism is inherently backwards-looking. Old-world research describes past realities

59 Copyright The Dangers of Empricism Empiricism = base interpretations on observations Empiricists have to wait for phenomena to stabilise before they can deliver any information of value So empiricism is inherently backwards-looking. Old-world research describes past realities The subject-matter of the Bled eConference is dynamic The style of the Bled eConference is instrumentalist To be design-oriented, authors have to take risks, and carefully balance academic rigour with relevance

60 Copyright The Bled eConference Outstanding Paper Award The Criteria Perspective The Quality Sought Real-World R elevance Contribution A mbition Academic R igour Presentation E ase of Access

61 Copyright Conclusions The Bled eConference has continually adapted to rapid changes in context and needs Its theme and scope are comprehensive and up-to-date, encompassing all aspects of electronic interaction It is relevant because of its instrumentalist tradition It has a substantial community The Bled eConference will continue to be highly valuable as we confronts the challenges of designing and managing electronic interactions among organisations, among people, and between organisations and people

62 Copyright {.html,.ppt} Bled eConference Opening Plenary – 18 June 2012 The First 25 Years of the Bled eConference Roger Clarke Xamax Consultancy, Canberra Visiting Professor in Computer Science, ANU and in Cyberspace Law & Policy, UNSW

63 Copyright Meta-Analyses of the Bled Corpus 'Bled eConference Themes and Impacts' Roger Clarke 'Automatic Semantic Trend Analysis' Heinz Dreher application of a semantic analysis tool to the full-text of each set of refereed proceedings , generating measures of the occurrence of ConceptKeywords, within-year, and across the period enables detection and analysis of changing emphases, such as the patterns of references to people as users, participants, employees, team- members and objects

64 Copyright Bled25 Special Section Categories of eBusiness 'eRegions' – Zimmerman Contribution of e to economic and social development within geographical regions, both within countries (e.g., large and thinly-populated rural areas), and across national borders (e.g. Adriatic ports, the Bodenseee, Basque and many other areas) Considerable contributions of meetings, panels and workshops to collaborations More research focus needed, through systematic study of initiatives and of success and failure factors

65 Copyright Bled25 Special Section Categories of eBusiness 'Mobile Commerce, Mobile Value Services – Carlsson & Walden Note the slowness of take-up during the last decade, particularly of the more advanced services From messaging, via data services to transaction services, but the focus switches to mobile value services and particularly knowledge mobilisation Critical design factors that have underpinned previous successful product launches offer insights into design factors for the next round of products

66 Copyright Bled25 Special Section Corporate Perspectives 'Tools to Support Business Models' – Bouwman et al. road-mapping to cope with transitions, stress-testing, agile engineering, financial decision-making support The threads of previous lines of development in business modelling theory weave through the history of the Bled eConference, and the paper suggests that this is likely to be the case in future Bled conference programs as well Now need more effective combination of Business Models with Business Process Analysis and Enterprise Architecture Approaches

67 Copyright Bled25 Special Section Corporate Perspectives 'Project Management' – Cameron Factor Research (incl. CSF) Engineering tradition (incl. tools, life-cycle notions) Social Science tradition (orgl structures, processes) Disappointingly slow adaptation of eTechnology project management techniques, from origins in intra-organisational systems, to the much more challenging contexts of inter- organisational information systems (IOIS) and extra- organisational systems (EOS) Decreasing emphasis on the engineering tradition, increasing attention to the social and organizational factors that primarily determine project outcomes Even more emphasis is needed on multiple levels of analysis and on multi-disciplinary research

68 Copyright Bled25 Special Section Corporate Perspectives 'IOIS and Information Infrastructure' – Klein at al. Progressive shift in focus in IOIS research, towards an information infrastructure (II) perspective The unit of study began as the individual organisation, but may now be the set of collaborating organisations, or the integral collaborative whole Underlines the value of the Bled eConference not only as a locus for informal meetings but also for disciplined face-to-face discussion, theory criticism and extension, and the conception of research projects

69 Copyright Bled25 Special Section Corporate Perspectives 'Procedural Controls to Facilitate Trade' – Bons et al. Trust by participants in multi-party electronic activities information infrastructure for international trade and the criticality of controls as a means of achieving – or of avoiding the need for – trust in international trade procedures The teams 'deontic' approach enables formal modelling of the means of identifying and implementing the necessary controls, such as evidence of permissions, rights, obligations, prohibitions and waivers

70 Copyright Bled25 Special Section Research Topics 'User Acceptance' – van der Heijden During , existing theories based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) were applied During , existing theories were extended, particularly in the trust and privacy areas During , Bled delegates have recognised the limitations of the traditional models, moved beyond them, and adopted alternative theoretical approaches van der Heijden's paper anticipates fewer surveys of what people say they do, and more observation of what people actually do, including use of experimental method in order to achieve more control, and improved insights


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