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Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Douglas Gamble Department of Geography.

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Presentation on theme: "Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Douglas Gamble Department of Geography."— Presentation transcript:

1 Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Douglas Gamble Department of Geography and Geology University of North Carolina at Wilmington Jamaicas Mid-Summer Dry Spell March 6, Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

2 OUTLINE Economic Motivation Economic Motivation Defining the Mid-Summer Dry Spell Defining the Mid-Summer Dry Spell MSD variability and patterns MSD variability and patterns Modified Pressure Index Modified Pressure Index Vegetation Response Vegetation Response Future Work Future Work

3 Dataset grid box nearest Montego Bay

4 GDP per capita MOTIVATION Jamaica is a relatively poor* nation that largely depends on its agricultural yields for both export and domestic consumption. An improved understanding of the mechanisms of the Mid Summer Dry-Spell can have significant impacts upon agricultural productivity and economic prosperity. * Definition of poor neglects significant cultural wealth that Jamaica possesses. ( CIA World FactBook 2007 )

5 Data Sets NCEP NCAR monthly Reanalysis NCEP NCAR monthly Reanalysis 2.5 degree gridded dataset 2.5 degree gridded dataset NASA Global Precipitation NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V2 Climatology Project (GPCP) V2 Terra MODIS spectral imagery Terra MODIS spectral imagery

6 mm day -1 GPCP CLIMATOLOGY Mid Summer Dry-Spell Signature

7 Mid-Summer Dry Spell Conceptual Model divergence upwelling NAM H MSD timing MayJuly

8 Mid-Summer Dry Spell Pattern Mean pentad gauge precip. Apr. - Nov

9 Mid-Summer Dry Spell Inter-Annual Variability

10 Average Sea Level Pressure (NCEP NCAR Reanalysis) Apr.–Nov APRILMAYJUNE JULYAUGUSTSEPTEMBER OCTOBERNOVEMBER

11 Monthly Caribbean Low Level Jet Averages (925mb) Apr.-Nov APRILMAYJUNE JULYAUGUSTSEPTEMBER OCTOBERNOVEMBER

12 Monthly GPCP Caribbean Precip. Averages Apr.-Nov APRILMAYJUNE JULYAUGUSTSEPTEMBER OCTOBERNOVEMBER

13 Average 925mb Divergence JUNE JULY AUG.SEPT.

14 Average Differences July minus May increase in NASH increase in CLLJ decrease in precip. +4mb -2 mm / day +5 ms-1

15 Modified Bermuda High Index P Montego Bay – P 30N, 40W Montego Bay 30N, 40W MBHI BHI

16 MBHI Monthly Climatologies Montego Bay 30N, 40W MBHI January February March April May June July August September October November December

17 Modified BHI 2002MBHIJan Feb.-5.8 Mar Apr MBHIJan Feb Mar Apr GPCP Montego Bay 1983 GPCP Montego Bay Early Season MBHI

18 Vegetation Response Via Remote Sensing Terra MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) 36 Spectral Bands covering the Earth every 1-2 days 250m resolution Jamaican Region Imagery delivered every 16 days Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Classification through ERDAS Imagine software

19 April 2006 October October 2006 NDVI = NIR - red NIR + red ________

20 FUTURE WORK NDVI TIME SERIES CLASSIFICATION ENSO FORCINGS FARMING PERSPECTIVE For more info:

21 Acknowledgements Dr. Scott Curtis Dr. Scott Curtis Dr. Douglas Gamble Dr. Douglas Gamble Dr. Rosana Nieto-Ferreira Dr. Rosana Nieto-Ferreira ECU Geography Department ECU Geography Department Dr. Peter Robinson and the SERCC Dr. Peter Robinson and the SERCC National Science Foundation National Science Foundation


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