1. Cristina Iannelli Moray House School of Education Edinburgh University Education and Social Mobility : Scottish Evidence

2. Outline  Introduction to the ESRC project Education and Social Mobility in Scotland in the 20 th Century.  Data and variables used in the project.  Patterns of social mobility in Scotland.  Education and social mobility.  Conclusions and policy implications.

3. The ESRC research project “Education and Social Mobility in Scotland in the 20 th Century” Aims To provide an up-to-date study of social mobility in Scotland (new data from Scottish Household Survey of 2001); To investigate the role played by education in the process of intergenerational social mobility.

4. The ESRC research project Main research questions  Has or has not social class of origin become less determining of destination class?  Has or has not education become more important in determining who moves between classes?

5. The ESRC research project Data  Main data source: 2001 Scottish Household Survey  Other data sources used: 1999 British Household Panel Survey 1974 Scottish Mobility Study (data collected only for men)

6. Variables (1) Parents’ and respondents’ social class Condensed Goldthorpe class schema: I-IIprofessional IIIroutine non-manual IVself-employed V-VIskilled manual VIIunskilled manual

7. Variables (2)  Social class determined by individuals’ occupational status.  Most recent employment.  Class of economically inactive people without previous employment determined by class of highest income householder.  For class of origin at age 14, higher of mother’s and father’s class was used.

8. Variables (3) Education  No educational qualification.  Lower secondary qualification (eg Standard Grade).  Upper secondary qualification (eg Highers).  Sub-degree higher education (eg HNC and HND).  Degree.

9. Variables (4) Birth cohorts  cohort 1: born 1937-46  cohort 2: born 1947-56  cohort 3: born 1957-66  cohort 4: born 1967-76

10. Results (1) Social class of origin and destination by birth-cohort

11. Results (2) Gender differences  Gender differences mostly relate to the segmentation of the labour market: The divide between routine non-manual occupations and skilled manual occupations. Lower-grade professional occupations versus higher-grade professional occupations.

12. Results (3) Mobility rates by cohort

13. Results (4) Changes in social fluidity  No statistically reliable evidence that the association between origin and destination varied over time.  Changing patterns of social mobility do not reflect changing patterns of social inequalities in the chances of being mobile.

14. Results (5) Education and social mobility  Educational expansion.  Higher participation rates and more comprehensive system in Scotland than in England.  Have these trends had an equalising effect on social mobility patterns?

15. Results (6) Educational expansion

16. Results (7) The intermediary role of education - Summary  The association between social origin and education has remained constant across cohorts.  Education variable does not explain most of the association of origin and destination.  OD association is weaker at higher levels of education.  Extent to which education explains OD association has not increased in the youngest cohorts.

17. Conclusions (1)  Scotland is similar to many developed countries.  Rise in upward mobility has stopped, and process may be going into reverse because of prior upward mobility of parents.  This is still driven mainly by shape of occupational distribution, not by changes in fluidity.  Education does not account for most of the association between class of origin and class of destination.

18. Conclusions (2)  Policy Implications: Scottish evidence shows that increasing social fluidity can not be brought about by educational policy on its own. Educational policy had an effect through the expansion of education which benefited all social classes at least equally.

19. Conclusions (3)  Two possible scenarios: Optimistic – continuing educational expansion and meritocratic selection in the labour market may lead to more social fluidity. Pessimistic – political pressure to differentiate attainment at the top end may lead to stable or even declining social fluidity.