1. Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government Energy Information Administration Retail Diesel Price Survey Michael Griffey

2. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Diesel Prices $4.76

3. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Energy Information Administration The statistical agency of DOE; created by Congress in 1977. EIA’s Mission – provide policy independent data, forecasts, and analyses By law, EIA’s products are independent of Administration policy. EIA neither formulates nor advocates any policy conclusions.

4. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Diesel Price Survey History Interstate Commerce Commission survey until 1994 ICC – a volunteer survey of 18 outlets, U.S. level only EIA began publishing May 21, 1994 EIA – a mandatory statistical survey of 250 outlets, U.S. and 5 regions Beginning May 26, 1997, sample expanded to 350 outlets, U.S., 8 regions, and California Began publishing LSD and ULSD prices 2/5/2007

5. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Insuring Accuracy Sample Design Sampling Frame Sample Selection Editing Validation

6. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Sample Design Considerations Accuracy desired Sample size requirements Geographic spread and representation Representation by type of outlets Estimation procedures including weighting

7. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Sample Design – Accuracy Desired Target Standard Errors (in cents) Geographic AreaDiesel Fuel Target Error U.S.1.0 PADD I – East Coast1.0 PADD IA – New England1.5 PADD IB – Central Atlantic1.5 PADD IC – Lower Atlantic1.5 PADD II – Midwest1.0 PADD III – Gulf Coast1.0 PADD IV – Rocky Mountain1.5 PADD V – West Coast1.5 CA1.5

8. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Survey Design - Sample Sizes by Geographic Region Diesel Fuel Allocations by Geographic Region PADD1A1B1C234CA5 -CATOTAL Outlets2834647236562931350 Company-State Units2227536535391823282

9. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Sample Frame Multi-stage sampling frame First stage – annual sales by State for approx 30,000 companies Second stage – annual retail-outlet diesel fuels sales by State for 1,639 companies on monthly surveys

10. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Sample Selection Two step selection process First step – companies and States (282 csu’s) Probability Proportionate to size (PPS) selection within cell Second step – 350 outlets Proportioned by type of outlet and zip code

11. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Survey Design – Estimation Published prices are weighted averages Publication cell estimates PADD estimates US estimates LSD and ULSD estimates

12. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium U.S. Total vs PADD III vs PADD V $2.96 $2.81 $2.75 $4.85 $4.69 $4.66 $4.06 $4.02 $4.01

13. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Collection When --- Monday Where --- Calling center How --- CATI, fax, email, website, 800 call-in line What -- Retail on-highway diesel prices by fuel type, including taxes, as of 8:00 A.M. Monday

14. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Processing Edits, use of model Price Verification Mid day review Call Backs Final Processing Performance Statistics

15. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Validation Use of model estimates Credit transaction data Coefficients of Variation (cv’s)

16. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium EIA vs Credit Transactions

17. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Coefficient of Variation A measure of precision reflecting the error due to sampling Can be used to construct a confidence interval for the population mean Price of $4.12, CV of 0.004 (.4%), 95% confidence level $4.09 to $4.15

18. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Dissemination When - By 5:00 P.M. Monday What - Diesel prices by fuel type and region and coefficients of variation How –Web Weekly Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices –Gasoline and Diesel Update –Wireless – 3,152 subscribers –Email – 33,623 subscribers –Hotline Number –Other EIA Publications

19. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Webpage

20. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium How to Prevent Price Manipulation Size of survey Edits, outlier identification, price verification Mandatory reporting by a public law Confidentiality - CIPSEA Protection Restricted access in calling center Secure data transmission Designated computer in a locked office

21. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Unanswered Questions Are there any planned changes, i.e. will it ever be posted daily? Will the DOE ever use a 3 rd party to supply the data to the DOE on a more frequent basis? Anything new in the near future

22. Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium Thank You E nergy I nformation A dministration www.eia.doe.gov N ational E nergy I nformation C enter: 202-586- 8800 Michael.Griffey@eia.doe.gov