2. UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca October 2008

3. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 2  The need for foresight as instrument for policy making  What is foresight?  Why foresight is used?  Overview of foresight methods  Brief history of foresight’s use  How to do the exercise  UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative Structure of the presentation

4. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 3 Industrial policy in the context of open innovation Concept of innovation ecosystem (open innovation system) Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision of the future

5. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 4 Thinking about the Future Who Would Have Imagined in the Late 1980s … the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism? a decade-long recession in Japan? the rise of the Internet? financial crash is the USA? The future is impossible to predict Assumptions about the future are inevitable There is no alternative to thinking about future alternatives

6. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 5 Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail... Absorbed by the technology itself, the impacts of technology on societal change are often ignored Lesson learned: Don‘t be preoccupied too much with technology push, take a balanced look also at societal contexts and market pull

7. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 6 Technical Feasibility is often equated with market demand Lesson learned: In a world populated by a clutter of nice technical gadgets, customers may become very selective and reserved about „disruptive technologies“ Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail...

8. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 7 The potential for global diffusion of technologies is often overestimated Lesson learned: Regional and cultural differences matter, understand diversity, „time logic“ and asynchronities of societies Organisation of transport modes Modernization Stages Pedestrianisation Cart/Rikshaw Motorcycles/Tuk- Tuk/Scooters Busses/Used Cars/ Passenger Vans New Cars Rail-based Transit Intellig. Transpor- tation Systems Singapore South Korea Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Cambodia Laos Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail...

9. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 8 Economy Energy & Environment Society, Lifestyles & Values Demography & Target Groups Consumer Behavior Internet & Communication BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Business & Industry Transportation & Mobility Science & Technology MERCEDES-BENZ Products & Services Regulators Customers Partners Competitors Regulators AUTO MARKET Suppliers FutureWatch is an annual integrated analysis of trends in the business environment that are shaping the future markets, products, and services of Mercedes-Benz in Europe, the U.S. and select other regions Future-oriented Monitoring - International and future-oriented analysis of the company´s business environment

10. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 9 Scenario Approach 2003-2013 Emerging Vehicle Markets – Regional Focus Product Focus Strategic Futures Research - Identification of opportunities and risks for existing and new products, services and processes

11. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 10 Strategic Marketing and Trend Research Technology Foresight (e.g. Delphi-Studies, Technology Monitoring) Product Impact Assessment Technology Assessment (e.g.Offices for technology assessment) Scenarios of Future Societies (e.g. Political think tanks) Global Trends (e.g. World Bank, Worldwatch Institute) Strategic Technology Monitoring Long term perspective (Conventional market research Strategic Market Research Technology Monitoring Prospective Economic Analyses Competition Analysis Short/medium term perspective Focus on Markets and Business Environments (economic, political, societal, ecological) = non-technological driving forces Focus on Technologies Today + 10 years+ 15 years+ 5 years Innovation and Technology Analysis Landscape of Future Studies

12. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 11 Planning – Forecast - Foresight Is there any difference? Planning is based on theories or doctrines on future developments; involves policy makers and experts; uses shorter time horizons – usually not over 1-5 years Forecasting tends to assume that there is one probable future, based on extrapolation or projections of past and present tends; it involves only experts; time horizons are less then 10 years, whereas Foresight assumes that there are numerous possible futures, and that the future is in fact there to be created through the actions the interested stakeholders choose to take today; it uses horizons of 10-20 years. M.Keenan, R. Seidl da Fonseca Foresight can use forecasts, as well as contribute to planning, but it should not be confused with either activity.

13. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 12 Weakness of conventional policy formulation Simple extrapolative prediction (based on forecasting) Narrow pool of expertise Passive outcomes: “white papers” or policy documents Limited ownership from the wider stakeholders Proposals are mostly normative Disruptive and innovative trends are difficult to predict

14. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 13 What is foresight? B. Martin (1995):- Research foresight is “the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” L. Georghiou (1996):- Technology foresight is “a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life” The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight can prepare us for a variety of "futures"

15. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 14 Status of foresight Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name Content focus –Priority setting –Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities Structural focus (increasing tendency) –Reorienting Science & Innovation system –Demonstrating vitality of S & I system –Bringing new actors into the strategic debate –Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or around problems Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously –All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains

16. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 15 Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise DIALOGUE Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUE between various societal actors, such as: –Government –Industry –Academia - natural & social scientists –Others, e.g. NGOs, trades unions, the media, banks, schools, the general public, etc. An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and collective) learning

17. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 16 The context of the Foresight process

18. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 17 Five essential elements Anticipation and projections of long-term developments Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis Forging new social networks Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment Implications for present-day decisions and actions

19. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 18 Common aims of Foresight Direction-setting Determining priorities Anticipatory intelligence Informing debate Increasing stakeholders’ involvement Building social capital Building identities Advocacy Consensus-generation …

20. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 19 Common Foresight features Long-term orientation  usually over ten years Consider a wide-range of factors  interdisciplinary approaches Be interactive  draw on knowledge and views from different sectors and organisations Be institutionalised  creating networks among actors Employ formal techniques to elicit, structure and synthesise the information

21. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 20 What sorts of results does Foresight create? products Examples of tangible ‘products’ include:  Critical technology lists  Baseline and benchmarking studies  Scenarios and Visions  Delphi survey result databases …… process Examples of ‘process’ benefits associated with foresight include:  Networking and resultant horizontal linkages  Commitment to guiding visions / recommendations  Adoption of long-term thinking and Foresight practices => foresight culture

22. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 21 Classes of Foresight methods CriteriaMethods 1. Methods based on eliciting expert knowledge to develop long term strategies − Delphi method − Experts panels − Brainstorming − Mindmapping − Scenarios building − SWOT analysis 2. Quantitative methods that make use of statistics and other data − Trend extrapolation − Simulation modelling − Cross impact analysis − System dynamics 3. Methods to identify key points of action to determine planning strategies − Critical/ key technologies − Relevance trees − Morphological analysis − Roadmapping

23. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 22 Overview of some common methods (Loveridge, 1996) Combinations of methods Expertise Creativity Interaction Alignment Panels Conferences Impact matrix La prospective Science fiction Brainstorming Scenario writing Essays Delphi Workshops

24. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 23 Exploratory approach: what would we expect to happen if this event happens or if that trend develops? Knowledge about the present Alternative futures What if Normative approach: what to do now to make the „best future“ happen? Present actions Alternative futures What to do The „best future“ Methods

25. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 24 Application of the foresight methodology Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process Introducing a forward-looking attitude – anticipative intelligence Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment Stimulating a participative approach Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue Reaching consensus around shared visions Linking technology and innovation to wider socio-economic issues

26. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 25 Sequencing Methods Methods are rarely used in isolation; rather, they are used in complementary sequences Useful to think about steps involved in foresight: 1.Enrolment of participants 2.Background data gathering, possibly forecasting 3.Ideas generation 4.Interaction between participants 5.Analysis and assessment 6.Synthesis and prioritisation 7.Dissemination and implementation Possible sequence: co-nomination, trend extrapolation, bibliometric analysis, expert panels, brainstorming, Delphi, scenarios, multi-criteria decision making, workshops...

27. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 26 Examples of foresight exercises National level Company level Supranational level UN response

28. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 27 Modern Foresight family tree (National S&T-oriented exercises)  From 1970 Japanese Science and Technology Agency began periodic 30 year forecasts  French initiatives in early 1980s  Dutch foresight began activity in 1989  US Congress established Critical Technologies Institute in 1991  German and UK exercises major milestones  Major upsurge during 1990s, especially in Western Europe and East Asia  2000 – EU New Member States and Latin America

29. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 28 Mutual policy learning – selective national foresight chronology

30. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 29 Company Foresight: Daimler Chrysler Aim: To support strategy and product development processes Permanent Foresight capability since 1979: Society and Technology Research Group Covers anything that impacts on company competitiveness – around 40 studies per year Time Horizon: typically around 10 years, but variable Methods: Scenarios Outcome: strategies sufficiently robust to survive most scenarios

31. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 30 Scenario Process at Daimler Chrysler

32. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 31 UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

33. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 32 UN Secretary General report on “Bridging the Technology Gap between and within Nations”, proposes to governments in developing countries and economies in transition, “involving representatives from industry, academia and public sectors in carrying out comprehensive technology foresight exercises with a view to identifying technologies that are likely to help address pressing socio-economic needs and establish priorities in S&T policy and governmental programmes on research and education”.

34. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 33 Aims Responding to the member countries’ need for a mid- and long-term development vision Bringing a more technology-oriented focus into the relevant national and regional knowledge-based institutions Providing assistance for a more sustainable and innovative development Fostering economical, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels

35. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 34 Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness and expand trading potential Foster economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmes Development Objectives

36. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 35 Awareness building and training Summits, Conferences and expert meetings Electronic information exchange facility and tools Studies and sectoral exercises Financial mechanisms Counterparts and coordination mechanism (EVC) Implementation strategy & activities

37. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 36 Foresight as a tool for regional R&D programmes Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networking Reduce costs by sharing common activities Awareness of global and regional trends Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problems Concentration of multi-country production chains Regional Dimension

38. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 37 Support governments and companies to set up foresight capabilities Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework Set up Clearing Houses on Foresight (ex. EVC) Future UNIDO efforts

39. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 38 UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative Activities

40. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 39 Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and activities Capacity Building Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-8) Summit Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7) Projects Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6) Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7) Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9) Future of the Andean Products: Textiles (2008-2009)

41. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 40 Complex production chains Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Multicountry Participation of different countries Plurinational Multisectorial Complex production chains

42. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 41 Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Productive Chains Products Production processes Markets Identification of: Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries Required cooperation for technology up-grading

43. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 42 THE FUTURE OF THE FISHERY INDUSTRY South American Pacific Coast

44. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 43 Marine Fresh water Aquaculture RESOURCES Intermediate and final agricultural goods Industrial intermediate goods Production services INDUSTRIAL INPUTS Capital goods Infrastructure Factory ships Seine Small scale EXTRACTION Aquaculture Canned Frozen Cured PROCESSING Concentrated Hydrolysed Meals and crude oils HUMAN CONSUMPTION NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION Semi-refined oils Balanced food Refined oils Animal feed Fishery Productive chain

45. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 44 Regional Situation National productive chains: fleets, industry, markets Strengh and weakness of the environment Regional Panel National Diagnostics National Foresight Studies Regional Panel and Report Critical Technologies Tools of Action Decision Making Processes National Panels Consultations Methodology

46. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 45 Results/Recommendations 1. Definition of a regional policy 2. Technology up-grading and investment promotion for re- conversion and modernization 3. Creation of new regional center for capability building and technology watch/road mapping 4. Establishing a quality mark of origin for the fish products of the region

47. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 46 THE FUTURE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY Central and Eastern European Countries

48. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 47 Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project: Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia Contract no.: 43005 FutureFood6 European Commission – 6th Framework Starting date: 01 February 2007 Duration: 2 years

49. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 48 Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe - The immediate goal: to assist the total food chain in Central and Eastern European countries to reach international standards to enhance European competitiveness as a whole by developing an industry, which is synonymous with safety, diversity, sophistication and products of high quality.

50. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 49 OPTI UNIDO WIIW FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG) Committee of high-level national policy-makers Knowledge institutions on food industry from every participating country OPTI UNIDO Hungary IEHAS Czech Rep. TC AS CR Slovakia BIC Group Croatia NWMC Romania UEFISCSU Bulgaria ARC Fund Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project team

51. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 50 Work plan flowchart Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe - Project strategy: 1. Mobilization of a variety of stakeholders groups 2. A socio-economic scenario building exercise 3. Interviews with specialists. 4. A survey on key technologies 5. Future vision building exercise 6. Technology road mapping

52. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 51 Work plan flowchart Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Work plan Flow

53. UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 52

54. UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca www.unido.org/foresight October 2008