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Simulation of the Late Maunder Minimum with global and regional climate models Hans von Storch, Beate Müller GKSS Research Center MUSCAD workshop, 20-21 October 203, Uppsala
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Simulation with ECHO-G (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) - 500 years (Columbus- run), and - 1000 years (Erik run) forced with - variable solar output - volcanic aerosol load - GHG concentrations
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Simulated global 1675-1710 temperature anomaly deMenocal et al. (2000) Ice conditions off Iceland (Koch, 1945)
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Information provided by Fidel González-Rouco and Simon Tett HadCM3 ECHO-G differences relative to the 1550-1800 average; 25-year running averages.
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Late Maunder Minimum Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710 Late Maunder Minimum Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710 Analysis of Columbus run, only.
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Baltic Sea ice winter index after Koslowski (1998) grey: raw index, red: 5 year mean, blue:20 year mean
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Mean winter temperatures in Tallin as reconstructed by Tarand & Nordli, 2001
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The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM) is the coldest phase of the so-called Little Ice Age with marked climatic variability over wide parts of Europe. Temperature conditions in Switzerland according to Pfisters classification (1999). 1675-1710 vs. 1550-1800 Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.
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1675-1710 vs. 1550-1800 Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al. Late Maunder Minimum Model-based reconstuction
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LMM – reference period, winter Erik Columbus Eduardo Zorita, pers. comm.
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LMM11671-1684 NAO- and Cooling LMM21685-1708 NAO+ and Warming Irene Fischer-Bruns, pers. comm.
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gridding: Spatial: 0.5° x 0.5° Temporal: 6 h REMO Model Area ECHO-G gridding
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Regionalized sea ice data Main land use types in Germany from 7th century area [%]
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Differences reconstructed data - REMOreconstructed data - ECHO January
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Differences reconstructed data - REMOreconstructed data - ECHO July
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REMO und Luterbacher Seasonal temperature anomalies in areas with skill of reconstruction > 0.5 Winter Herbst Frühling Sommer
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Temperaturanomalie des LMM für Zentral-England Winter
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Winterliche Mitteltemperatur und Anomalie des LMM für den Tallinner Hafen Mittel
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Conclusions Two multi-century simulations concluded. Natural forcing plus GHGs. Work done by a European consortium. Model simulations are consistent. Tools for dynamical downscaling for the Baltic catchment area developed. Models simulates significant winter cooling during LMM; similar event in HadCM3. Similarity to observed features, but variations much stronger than empirical reconstructions by Mann and others. LMM winter cooling is global event. Cooling in Europe is just a manifestation, and not mainly related to anomalous easterlies in Northern Europe.
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