1. Simulation of the Late Maunder Minimum with global and regional climate models Hans von Storch, Beate Müller GKSS Research Center MUSCAD workshop, 20-21 October 203, Uppsala

2. Simulation with ECHO-G (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) - 500 years (Columbus- run), and - 1000 years (Erik run) forced with - variable solar output - volcanic aerosol load - GHG concentrations

3. Simulated global 1675-1710 temperature anomaly deMenocal et al. (2000) Ice conditions off Iceland (Koch, 1945)

4. Information provided by Fidel González-Rouco and Simon Tett HadCM3 ECHO-G differences relative to the 1550-1800 average; 25-year running averages.

6. Late Maunder Minimum Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710 Late Maunder Minimum Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710 Analysis of Columbus run, only.

7. Baltic Sea ice winter index after Koslowski (1998) grey: raw index, red: 5 year mean, blue:20 year mean

8. Mean winter temperatures in Tallin as reconstructed by Tarand & Nordli, 2001

9. The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM) is the coldest phase of the so-called Little Ice Age with marked climatic variability over wide parts of Europe. Temperature conditions in Switzerland according to Pfisters classification (1999). 1675-1710 vs. 1550-1800 Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.

10. 1675-1710 vs. 1550-1800 Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al. Late Maunder Minimum Model-based reconstuction

11. LMM – reference period, winter Erik Columbus Eduardo Zorita, pers. comm.

12. LMM11671-1684 NAO- and Cooling LMM21685-1708 NAO+ and Warming Irene Fischer-Bruns, pers. comm.

13. gridding: Spatial: 0.5° x 0.5° Temporal: 6 h REMO Model Area ECHO-G gridding

14. Regionalized sea ice data Main land use types in Germany from 7th century area [%]

15. Differences reconstructed data - REMOreconstructed data - ECHO January

16. Differences reconstructed data - REMOreconstructed data - ECHO July

17. REMO und Luterbacher Seasonal temperature anomalies in areas with skill of reconstruction > 0.5 Winter Herbst Frühling Sommer

18. Temperaturanomalie des LMM für Zentral-England Winter

19. Winterliche Mitteltemperatur und Anomalie des LMM für den Tallinner Hafen Mittel

20. Conclusions Two multi-century simulations concluded. Natural forcing plus GHGs. Work done by a European consortium. Model simulations are consistent. Tools for dynamical downscaling for the Baltic catchment area developed. Models simulates significant winter cooling during LMM; similar event in HadCM3. Similarity to observed features, but variations much stronger than empirical reconstructions by Mann and others. LMM winter cooling is global event. Cooling in Europe is just a manifestation, and not mainly related to anomalous easterlies in Northern Europe.