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Why Transition Studies? Nordic-Baltic-Russian Network of Transition Studies Workshop 2006 Putting the Eastern European transitions into a wider perspective of regime change Vello Pettai, Department of Political Science, University of Tartu
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A: Australia, Canada, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, New- Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, Great Britain, USA B: Chile C: Austria, Belgium, Colombia, Denmark, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway D: Argentina, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Hungary, Uruguay E: East Germany, Poland, Portugal, Spain F: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania G: Botswana, Costa Rica, Gambia, Israel, Jamaica, Malaysia, Malta, Sri Lanka, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela H: Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, India, South-Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Turkey I: Nigeria J: Burma, Fidji, Ghana, Guyana, Indonesia, Lebanon K: Bulgaria, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mongolia, Namibia, Nicaragua, Panama, Papua New-Guinea, Romania, Senegal L: Haiti, Sudan, Suriname Democracy’s Three Waves ( Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, p. 14)
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Democracy as Normative Standard History is not ‘over’ (Fukuyama), but democracy (even if only electoral) is a central international measure of political legitimacy in our era –membership in international organizations –conditionality for development aid –foreign policy priority: ‘regime change’
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Political science is democracy Modern political science (e.g. ‘comparative politics’) is fundamentally concerned about democracy, its functioning and ultimately its fostering –even studies of non-democracies are just that: ‘non-democracies’, i.e. defined in relation to democracy –cultural, religious, historical essentialisms are not seen as plausible approaches to making sense of politics
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Four educational & research tasks 1)what is democracy vs. other regimes? –‘regime theory’: conceptual framework of regimes –static boundaries 2)how does democracy come about? –‘regime transition theory’: causal models of regime change –dynamic models –practical advice
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Four educational & research tasks 3)how to consolidate democracy? –types of consolidation –economic change –retrospective justice 4)how to compare post-communist change? –what is special about Central and Eastern Europe?
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1) Regime Theory DemocracyAuthoritarianismTotalitarianism Post- Totalitarianism Sultanism Pluralism Ideology Mobilization Leadership Linz and Stepan (1996), Table 3.1
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2a) Cycles of Regime Transition young democracy crisis-breakdown non-democracy liberalization democratization economic factors international influences non- democratic regime type
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2b) Practical advice young democracy crisis-breakdown non-democracy liberalization democratization Opposition: -focus attn on illegitimacy -encourage disaffection, defections -cultivate generals -practice and preach non-violence -seize all chances to express oppo., including elections -develop contacts with outside world -promote unity among oppo. -be prepared quickly to fill vacuum Soft-liners: -maintain control over regime -surprise with concessions -get security services to agree to nego. principle -enhance stature and position of preferred oppo. leader -establish confidential and reliable back-channels to oppo. -secure rights for oppo. in future regime Regime & Opposition: -transition will not last: seize the opportunity -the future of both sides depends on agreement -resist more hard-line or extreme elements -your agreement will be the only alternative; hardliners and radicals can not offer anything -when in doubt. compromise Soft-liners: -secure your political base -maintain backward legitimacy -shift constuencies -be prepared for extreme moves -lead from strength -keep expectations low -encourage responsible opposition -create sense of inevitability S. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, 141-2, 150- 1, 162-3.
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3a) Types of Consolidation A. Schedler, “What is Democratic Consolidation?” Journal of Democracy, 1998, pp. 91-107
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3b) Economic challenges democracy & market economy democracy & market economy reform new democracies & market economy reform different new democracies & market economy reform
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3c) Retrospective justice MEASURES legal political PLAYERS perpetrators victims judicial trials property restitution, compensation lustration recognition, memory ‘detotalitarization’ exposing collaborators truth commissions opening secret files amnesty amnesia Adapted from: C. Offe and U. Poppe, 2005, pp. 153
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4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE 1.non-democratic regime type authoritarian vs. post-totalitarian 2.economic system capitalism vs planned economy 3.level of economic development weakly industrialized vs industrialized 4.class structure of society multi-layered vs flattened
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5.multiethnicity homogeneous vs heterogenous societies 6.civil society strong vs weak 7.the role of the masses occasional vs decisive 8.international influences during liberalization limited vs background setter 9.international influences during democratization moderate vs extensive 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE
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10.state identity marginal vs liberation, independence 11.change in elites often limited vs often very extensive 12.main tasks of democratization regime change (+ econ. stabilization) vs (‘triple-’) transformation of society successive vs simultaneous 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE
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Other fields and foci modern European history and the Cold War transition economics anthropology of transition memory and transitional justice life stories and individual-level memory research TRANSITION STUDIES HAS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO!
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