Key Points Climate Protection requires a budget limit on cumulative GHG emissions. Efficiency, Renewable Electric, Biofuels, Electrification/FCV, CCS, Nuclear(?) all play a role. Each has challenges at scale. Preserving climate budget options requires immediate change in focus, especially for coal.
Climate Budget Basics To prevent global temperatures from rising above any target level means limiting total cumulative GHG emissions in the next four decades. Uncertain what a “safe” target is but most focus is on 2 degree Celsius above pre- industrial levels. Today we are at + 0.81°C. But most of 2 degree budget is already locked in by existing capital stock.
IEA 2° Energy CO2 Budget 50% chance of exceeding 2° Source: IEA, WEO 2012
Coal Power v. Carbon Budget Based on IEA, WEO 2012 119% of Budget
Carbon/Energy Impacts of CCS Cut CO2 from new fossil sources Cut CO2 from existing sources pre- retirement Create space in the budget for easier transition away from oil. Reduce bio-energy pressure on forested lands
New Coal Plant CO2 is 25% Greater Than From All Pre-2000 Coal Use Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2012 74% of remaining budget for 450 ppm
Cutting CO2 Lock-in from New Coal 1709 GW without CCS Source: IEA, WEO 2012
CCS Policy Needs Rigorous regulatory framework for siting and operating CCS repositories. Comprehensive monitoring and transparent reporting of repository parameters, including pressure regimes. Policies to deploy CCS at commercial scale: emission performance standards; carbon pricing; subsidies in early years.
U.S. Carbon Pollution Standard Proposed New Source Performance Standard” for CO 2 from new fossil fuel fired power plants First national carbon pollution standard for stationary sources Builds on “endangerment finding” following Mass v. EPA Supreme Court decision
What U.S. CPS Requires 1000 lbs/MWh standard for new fossil fuel fired plants (NGCC and coal) Achievable by natural gas combined cycle plants Also achievable by coal plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) – 30 year compliance option EPA projects no added cost because forecasts show no new coal plants
Standards for Existing Plants 2.4 billion tons CO 2 from existing plants each year Clean Air Act requires CO 2 standards for existing plants (Section 111(d)) EPA sets performance standards, states implement through SIPs Flexible compliance options
33 Potential Reductions from Power Sector …Twice What’s Being Achieved by Clean Car Standards MDV and HDV Standards LDV Standard Sources: EPA/NHTSA rule documents at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm and NRDC estimates.http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm LDV Standard MDV and HDV Standards Note: The reductions shown are from BAU in the forecast years. 500 Million 900 Million
RESULT OF MODEL RUNS CO2 EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS (MILLION SHORT TONS) Source for historical CO2 emissions data: EIA. Historical and NRDC-Projected Power Sector CO2 Emissions Historical CO2 EmissionsReference Case EmissionsPolicy Case Emissions
Progress Toward U.S. 2020 17% Goal Car and Power Plant Standards Achieve Four-Fifths of President’s 2020 Target (17% below 2005 levels by 2020) Historical 2005 levels US targets – where we need to get emissions to 2011 EIA projection 2012 EIA projection with first set of car standards factored in 2012 EIA projection with extended policies, including second set of car standards With power plant carbon standards
BENEFITS SWAMP COSTS NOTES Benefits from SO 2 and NO X reductions estimated by extensively peer-reviewed dispersion model developed by Abt Associates to estimate health impacts from power plants for EPA. Lower and Higher estimates based on different statistical relationships between pollution concentrations and health effects that are used by EPA. Value of statistical lives lost is the primary component of the monetary value of the estimated benefits. Lower carbon reduction benefit calculated with Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) of $26 per ton in 2020, reflecting the Administration’s current estimate, using a 3% discount rate. Higher carbon benefit calculated with SCC of $59 per ton in 2010, reflecting a discount rate of 2%. OMB recommends using a discount rate of 1-3% for inter-generational issues such as climate change. At a discount rate of 1%, the SCC is $254 per ton in 2010. COSTSBENEFITS CO2 BenefitsSO2 and NOX BenefitsCompliance Costs Low Estimate 2020 High Estimate 2020