1. Early Warning Systems 101 Johann Liljengren, Talent Development Secondary, Johns Hopkins University Frances Gerber, Southwest Independent School District, San Antonio, Texas

2. 1234 I have heard about Early Warning Systems We have started trying out some of these pieces We are perfecting our EWS We are planning a roll-out this year

3. Core Ideas of Early Warning Systems To graduate, college- and career-ready students need to successfully navigate several key transitions and acquire a set of academic behaviors - they need to learn how to succeed at school. Students signal that they are on- or off-track toward these outcomes through their behaviors

4. Core Ideas of Early Warning Systems By tracking Early Warning Indicators it is possible to identify when students are beginning to fall off-track, providing time to intervene and alter their trajectory through school and beyond.

5. Objectives Participants will understand and be able to articulate the research behind early warning systems Participants will analyze and examine sample data reports and identify potential responses Participants will identify one thing that they are willing to try

6. Indicators Reliable and Valid Predictive Unique information for action Intervention system Tiered Interventions (Individual, targeted, whole school) System for monitoring/follow-up Reflective processes Early Warning System

7. WHAT IS THE RESEARCH TELLING US?

8. Indicators and Influencers? Special education English Language Learners Standardized test scores Course failure Core courses Elective courses Poor attendance Overage: 1-2 years, 2 years+ Poor behavior Repeaters 9 th graders Behavior marks Suspensions Gender Socio-economic status Parental education

9. Dropouts can be identified as early as 6 th grade Note: Early Warning Indicator graph from Philadelphia research which has been replicated in 10 cities. Robert Balfanz and Liza Herzog, Center for Social Organization of Schools at Johns Hopkins University; Philadelphia Education Fund Sixth grade students with one or more of the indicators have only a 10% to 20% chance of graduating from high school on time or within one year of expected graduation

10. ~1,200 sixth graders with 90%+ att., excellent behavior passed math and English, and scored at or above basic on the 5 th grade PSSA Comparison Group

11. Los Angeles Course Failure What Factors Predict High School Graduation in the Los Angeles Unified School District? Silver, D., Saunders, M. (University of California, Los Angeles), Zarate, E. (University of California, Irvine)

12. Success Factors – The A,B,Cs A study in Chicago has shown that GPA is the strongest predictor of college graduation. – More than 60% of students who graduated with a 3.6 GPA or higher completed a four-year degree within six years compared to slightly more than a quarter with GPAs between 2.6 and 3.0 – *Consortium on Chicago School Research, 2006 Good News: Students are resilient and usually signal before dropping out. Students usually start with one indicator and develop more indicators over time.

13. HOW DO WE ORGANIZE THE DATA INTO USEFUL INFORMATION? HOW DO WE ORGANIZE AND RESPOND TO THE DATA?

14. Early Warning Systems - Indicators On-Track Sliding Off-track -Research based -Need Intervention -Probability -Majority of Students

15. Research Takeaways - Attendance Students who are missing 10% or more of school need intervention. But it is the students who miss 5 or fewer days in the year who thrive. Attention should be paid to students who miss more than 5 days but less than 10% Tracking Data Off-Track Less Than 90% On-Track Greater Than 90% College Ready Greater Than 95%

16. Research Takeaways - Behavior Students with sustained mild misbehavior fall off track in larger numbers. It is important to track more minor as well as major incidents. Students who are suspended once need intervention to make sure they are not suspended again. TrackingData Off-Track 1 or More Suspensions And/or Mild Sustained Behavior On-Track No Suspensions

17. Research Takeaways – Course Performance Course Performance is as important for students’ long-term success as test scores. Students with multiple Ds and Fs seldom graduate. Students with B or better averages succeed in college. TrackingData Off-Track Failing ELA and/or Math On-Track Passing ELA and/or Math College Ready B or Better

18. Lessons learned - Southwest ISD Use Specific, Targeted Data Points Data cards with student faces and building PLC teams for each group of students

19. Data Collection with a Purpose Identify Off-Track Students Develop an Intervention Plan

20. Organize that Data into Information Student AttendanceBehavior (referrals) Course Performance Sept09-10Sept09-10Math Sept. Math Q4ELA SeptELA Q4 #John5 days96%0768%B77%A #Adrian093% 4, 1 Susp. 288%A53%C #Samuel 0, 10 tardy 99%21482%B55%D #Erica581%1156%C87%B

21. Step #1 Student level report for 2-3 students What trends do you notice? What supports/interventions/responses would you take at your school?

23. Step #2 Full class ABCs and resiliency What trends do you notice? What supports/interventions/responses would you take at your school?

24. Lessons learned - Southwest ISD  Organizing data  Building Systems  Create a sacred time to meetings and deadlines  Connecting to the right interventions  Use the strengths on your staff  Go outside and bring in support  Organizing and supporting staff  Build teams for teachers to collaborate with  Celebrate all achievements and progress

25. WHAT’S NEXT?

26. Student Data Student AttendanceBehavior (referrals) Course Performance Sept09-10Sept09-10 Math Sept. Math Q4 Change ELA Sept ELA Q4 Change #John 5 days 96%0768%B77%A #Adrian093% 4, 1 Susp. 288%C53%C #Samuel 0, 10 tardy 99%21482%B55%D #Erica581%1156%C87%B

27. What a grade level looks like?

28. Tier I Whole school Tier II Tier III Most Intensive Attendance Weekly attendance recognition Perfect attendance celebration (monthly) Team competition for attendance Check and Connect Wake up calls Buddy System with another student Recognition for improved attendance Home visit by counselor Individual contract with student and parent Behavior Cardinal Cash (Caught you doing something good) Freshman Seminar lessons Academy meetings Outside Speakers Peer Mediation group Daily Behavior contract In-class interventions (seating, pairing, activity PREVENTION – Gang intervention group in the neighborhood Visit one on one with social worker Individual counselor sessions

29. EWI Meetings An interdisciplinary teacher team meeting to coordinate, create, and monitor interventions for students who are exhibiting early warning indicators.

30. Recommendations for getting started Southwest ISD  Introduce the rationale for the program & share the research  Develop systems  Run a program analysis on the EWI with your campus data  Over-support your teachers in the beginning  When they see progress, students and teachers will takeover this process

31. Indicators Reliable and Valid Predictive Unique information for action Intervention system Tiered Interventions (Individual, targeted, whole school) System for monitoring/follow-up Reflective processes Early Warning System

32. CONTACT INFORMATION Johann Liljengren – jliljengren@jhu.edujliljengren@jhu.edu Frances Gerber – fgerber@swisd.netfgerber@swisd.net