1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization Public Opinion and Political Socialization

2. Three Broad Classes Inputs –Culture –Information –Public Opinion Institutions –Branches of Government –Parties/Interest Groups –Rules of the game Outputs –Policies –Conditions –Outcomes InputsInstitutionsPolicies

3. Public Opinion What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at some point in time. V.O Key- any attitudes the public has that the government would be wise to heed Opinions held by the public that may have an impact on the political process

4. Public Opinion Attitudes towards specific issues/policies E.g. War in Iraq, social security reform E.g. War in Iraq, social security reform Attitudes about state of the nation E.g. Important problems, state of the economy E.g. Important problems, state of the economy Attitudes towards officeholders Presidential approval Presidential approval Attitudes towards the government Attitudes towards specific groups

5. Public Opinion Individual and collective property 2 key elements Attitude direction Attitude direction Salience/importance Salience/importance A function of both long and short term factors

6. Ideology Fairly consistent set of ideas Interrelation between more specific attitudes Only Some people think “ideologically” More knowledgeable More knowledgeable More involved More involvedLiberal-Conservative ~20% Conservative ~30% Liberal ~50% Moderate

7. Ideology What distinguishes ideology? Attitude towards government intervention/individual liberty Attitude towards change/past Attitudes towards social conventions?

8. Public Opinion Stable/Malleable? The wonder is that they (the people) so seldom err as they do; beset as they continually are by the wiles of parasites and sycophants, by the snares of the ambitious, the avaricious, the desperate” Hamilton Federalist 71 Hamilton Federalist 71 Madison and demagogues Evidence for some of each

9. Political Socialization Learning process by which people acquire their political ideas and values Ecology->Culture->Socialization- >Personality->Behavior (Triandis 1994) Social Learning Theory

10. American Political Culture(s) Some commonalities Elazar 3 Sub Cultures Individualistic Individualistic Moralistic Moralistic Traditionalistic Traditionalistic

11. Agents of Political Socialization The Family EducationRaceReligionClass Peer groups Long term influence

12. Values Somewhat corrupted term EqualityToleranceFreedom Protestant work ethic/deservingness Meritocracy Which values in which situations?

13. What Moves Public Opinion? Real world events (wars, economic factors, various salient issues) Elite Discussion Politics (Campaigns, speeches, etc) The Media Public opinion itself

14. Real World Events Many Factors influence presidential Approval Here- Uptick around start of war As war progresses, decreased support.

15. Elite Discourse Can Move Public Opinion Only effective when elites have one message When Multiple Messages, citizens fall back to original opinions

16. Elite Discourse E.g. Vietnam Early- Most Elites Support War More Media exposure-> More support More Media exposure-> More support Mainstreaming Mainstreaming Late- Divided Elite Opinion Some Hawks, some Doves Some Hawks, some Doves Opinion Depends on previous Opinion Depends on previous Polarization Polarization

17. Public Opinion Itself Public opinion widely reported May cause people to change mind Bandwagon effect Bandwagon effect Reconsider reasons Reconsider reasons Example- Health care 1994 Large majority of Americans satisfied with own healthcare Large majority of Americans satisfied with own healthcare Large majority think most people get bad care Large majority think most people get bad care

18. Measuring Public Opinion Polling Telephone Surveys Relatively Small Samples Random Assignment Margin of error

19. Types of Polls Telephone In Person Exit Poll Tracking Poll

20. Shortcomings of Polls Accuracy? Social Desirability Question wording Declining Response rates

21. The Ugly- Literary Digest Poll 1936 Election Over 1 Million Respondents Predicts Alf Landon Win Problem- Selecting Participants Problem- Low response rate Problem- Too far in advance of election

22. Polling and Democracy Verba- Allows voices to be heard that would not otherwise Allows greater detail on wishes of public than elections would. Dryzek- Empowers status quo Does not allow spontaneous expression of opinion

23. The Uses Of Polls The media Election Forecasting By the public By politicians To inform policy To inform policy To sell policy To sell policy By Interest groups

24. Public Opinion and Representation Large shifts in opinion -> changes in policy District level Congruence in some policy domains Strongest in states with referendum Strongest in states with referendum

25. Public Opinion and Representation Can reign in lobbyists When is public opinion influential? When it sends a clear message When it moves dramatically When Issue is Salient Limits Not all issues salient Public opinion shifts

26. Public Opinion and Elections Surveys allow for forecasting Can enable strategic voting Large impact on fundraising Horse race coverage

27. Presidential Approval “Do you generally approve of the way ________ is handling his job as president?” Important resource Increased Bargaining Power More successful with congress Success brings success

28. Presidential Approval Character vs. Competence The case of Bill Clinton The case of Jimmy Carter Competence trumps

29. Sources of Approval (or lack thereof) The economy Both current performance and expectations Both current performance and expectations Economy as a whole more important than personal Economy as a whole more important than personal Presidential “drama” War/foreign policy Media Coverage Priming Focusing attention on particular areas Focusing attention on particular areas Can help or hurt overall approval Can help or hurt overall approval

30. Political Trust Most of the time, can you trust government to do the right thing? Trend- Generally decreasing Similar trend for other institutions as well Sources? Policy Dissatisfaction Increasing gap between promises/results Political Scandal/Media

31. Political Trust Consequences Decreased Turnout? Electoral Choice Benefits 3 rd party candidates and challengers Benefits 3 rd party candidates and challengersStability

32. Tolerance A willingness to tolerate the presence of ideas that you do not agree with Stouffer 1955 80-90% of respondents support abstract liberties 30-35% support applications of those liberties The more educated more likely to be tolerant

33. Tolerance More recent work Gap between abstract and applied Gap between educated and not? Different groups-> different results When allowed to pick groups they don’t like, more educated nearly as intolerant Americans not much more tolerant than in the 50s?