1. CAAP Agricultural Policy Analysis Center - University of Tennessee - 310 Morgan Hall - Knoxville, TN 37996-4519 www.agpolicy.org - phone: (865) 974-7407 - fax: (865) 974-7298 2006 Burley Tobacco Survey Burley Stabilization Corporation Annual Meeting September 14, 2006 Kelly Tiller Agricultural Policy Analysis Center The University of Tennessee

2. CAAP Post-Buyout Tobacco Data USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) –Planting intentions –In-season crop production estimates (acreage, yields, production) –Marketing year acreage, yields, production, season average prices Census of Agriculture –Last in 2002, next in 2007 Company estimates and information

3. CAAP Change in Total Tobacco Acreage Still not back to pre- buyout acreage Burley generally down more than flue Pennsylvania up significantly Missouri above 2004 level 2004 to 2006 1.7% -72.5% -21.7% -27.8% -3.2% 10.3% -1.3% -44.6% 97.5% -18.5% -33.9% -32.0%

4. CAAP Change in Total Tobacco Acreage Flue-cured states generally up Florida way down Mix in burley –Kentucky up some –Tennessee down 13% Several states no longer reported -2.0% -56.0% 12.5% 4.1% 0.8% 18.5% 22.2% -8.8% 58.0% 10.0% -12.9% 17.7% 2005 to 2006

5. CAAP Change in Flue-Cured Acreage 2005 to 2006 -72.5% -21.7% -0.9% -18.5% -26.1% 2004 to 2006 -56.0% 12.5% 22.0% 10.0% 21.4%

6. CAAP Change in Burley Acreage 2005 to 20062004 to 2006 -31.1% 10.3% -14.9% -44.6% -41.7% -52.5% 4.3% 18.5% 33.3% -8.8% -17.6% 0.0% 150.0%

7. CAAP Change in Dark-Fired Acreage 2005 to 20062004 to 2006 -46.5% 0.0% -2.1% 11.8% -11.7% 1.8%

8. CAAP Change in Dark Air-Cured Acreage 2005 to 20062004 to 2006 28.8% -25.9% 27.0% -11.1%

9. CAAP % of Respondents Growing in ‘06 Yes 47% No 53%

10. CAAP Respondents Growing in ‘06 47% 52%40% No Yes

11. CAAP Average Planted Acres

12. CAAP ’06 Average Acreage No 53% Yes 47%

13. CAAP Average Planted Acres Tennessee North Carolina Virginia

14. CAAP Last Year Actively Growing 3% 11% 62% 23%

15. CAAP 2006 Prices, Tennessee

16. CAAP 2006 Prices, Virginia

17. CAAP 2006 Prices, North Carolina

18. CAAP Likelihood of Producing in ‘07

19. CAAP Expected Acreage Changes in ‘07

20. CAAP Likelihood of Producing in ‘10

21. CAAP Likelihood of Producing in ‘15

22. CAAP Future Production Expectations

23. CAAP Importance of Financing Availability

24. CAAP Total Farm Acreage

25. CAAP Other Farm Enterprises

26. CAAPwww.agpolicy.org/tobsurvey.html