1. Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from Rural and Urban Workers in Russia, 1995-2004 Susan J. Linz and Anastasia Semykina Michigan State University Florida State University The 2008 World Congress on National Accounts and Economic Performance Measures for Nations Washington, DC – May 2008

2. Russia’s transition from a planned economy to a market-oriented economy was associated with substantial deterioration of economic conditions - Real GDP declined up until the late 1990s - Unemployment reached double digits in 1997-1999 - About 40% of the population below subsistence in 1999 Macroeconomic indicators improved substantially since 2000 In 2005,real GDP growth 6.5 % unemployment 7.6 % share of people living below subsistence15.8 % Rural-urban differences - Throughout the 1990s, Russia’s rural households had lower income, fewer assets, and were more severely affected by wage and pension arrears and unemployment (Mu 2006). - In Russia, living in rural areas carries a much higher risk of poverty than living in urban locales (World Bank). Background and Motivation

3. Economic insecurity – “a chronic state or condition during which an individual or family has insufficient financial resources to satisfy basic needs and wants …” (Rejda and Haley 2005) One component of economic insecurity is job insecurity (Dominitz and Manski 1997). Perceptions of job insecurity were found to have an adverse effect on - physical and psychological well-being (Bertaux and Queneau 2002, Bohle et al. 2001, Naswall and DeWitte 2003 ) - organizational loyalty and job satisfaction (Chirumbolo and Hellgren 2003, DeWitte and Naswall 2003) - consumption and savings (Benito 2006) We posit that perceptions of economic insecurity have an analogous adverse effect

4. Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey 1995-2004 (no survey was conducted in 1997 or 1999). Sample was restricted to workers of ages 15-65. Measures of economic insecurity NECESS: How concerned are you about the possibility that you might not be able to provide yourself with the bare essentials in the next 12 months? (1 = very concerned, 4 = not concerned at all) VALUED: Consider this statement – is it like you or not: “It seems to me that I have few of those qualities that are valued in the economic situation of today.” (1 = strongly agree, 4 = strongly disagree) UNEMPL: (i) How concerned are you that you might lose your job? and (ii) Imagine this not very pleasant scene: the enterprise or organization where you work, for some reason will close tomorrow, and all workers will be laid off. How certain are you that you will be able to find work, no worse than your present job? (1 = concerned about losing job and uncertain about finding new job, 4 = not concerned about losing job and confident that will find a new job) Data and Measures

5. Descriptive Statistics More than 80% of workers were concerned about necessities in 1995-1998; about 70% or more were concerned about necessities in 2000-2004 More than 50% said they had few valued skills Almost 50% were concerned about unemployment in 1995-1999. More than 30% were concerned about unemployment in 2000- 2004. Perceptions of economic insecurity are higher among workers of ages 40-54, women, workers with secondary education or less Rural-urban differences in perceptions are rather small in 1995- 1998. In 2000-2004, perceptions of economic insecurity are substantially higher among rural workers.

6. Percent of Workers Who Feel Insecure, 1995-2004

7. Ordered Probit Estimates for Economic Insecurity NECESS VALUED UNEMPL 1995-19982000-2004 1995-19982000-2004 1995-19982000-2004 Rural -0.361***-0.150**-0.050-0.092-0.213**-0.286*** (0.096)(0.065)(0.092)(0.067)(0.093)(0.073) Age 25 - 39 -0.209***-0.163***-0.072-0.188***-0.219***-0.142*** (0.042)(0.029)(0.044)(0.03)(0.043)(0.032) Age 40 - 54 -0.188***-0.240***-0.166***-0.463***-0.364***-0.385*** (0.045)(0.031)(0.048)(0.033)(0.047)(0.034) Age 55 and older -0.089-0.077*-0.197***-0.587***-0.378***-0.404*** (0.058)(0.045)(0.064)(0.046)(0.06)(0.047) Female -0.507***-0.472***-0.224***-0.223***-0.346***-0.358*** (0.063)(0.041)(0.068)(0.043)(0.068)(0.044) Married -0.183***-0.182***0.0160.170***0.043-0.011 (0.052)(0.035)(0.058)(0.038)(0.058)(0.038) Married * Female 0.188***0.248***-0.037-0.072-0.0690.091* (0.067)(0.045)(0.072)(0.047)(0.071)(0.048) Vocational-level training 0.017-0.0150.0610.0090.0170.031 (0.037)(0.028)(0.043)(0.03)(0.037)(0.03) University-level training 0.149***0.082***0.123***0.096***0.126***0.032 (0.039)(0.03)(0.045)(0.031)(0.039)(0.032)

8. NECESS VALUED UNEMPL 1995-19982000-2004 1995-19982000-2004 1995-19982000-2004 1  Tenure  3 -0.0370.037*0.0500.0330.011-0.051** (0.035)(0.022)(0.042)(0.025)(0.035)(0.024) 3 < Tenure  10 -0.0490.049**-0.044-0.036-0.055-0.150*** (0.036)(0.024)(0.041)(0.027)(0.037)(0.026) Tenure > 10 -0.093**-0.015-0.021-0.048-0.151***-0.251*** (0.040)(0.030)(0.045)(0.032)(0.040)(0.031) Managers, professionals 0.323***0.338***0.215***0.504***0.199***0.089** (0.055)(0.039)(0.060)(0.043)(0.055)(0.042) Skilled technical, administrative 0.200***0.207***0.236***0.399***-0.005-0.055 (0.050)(0.037)(0.057)(0.041)(0.051)(0.041) Clerical, sales, service 0.188***0.118***0.149***0.326***-0.0570.028 (0.051)(0.035)(0.058)(0.039)(0.052)(0.039) Teachers, nurses, social workers 0.162***0.050-0.0090.224***0.280***0.202*** (0.062)(0.047)(0.066)(0.048)(0.062)(0.050) Skilled manual 0.087*0.107***0.095*0.152***-0.022-0.059 (0.049)(0.037)(0.055)(0.040)(0.050)(0.040) Semi-skilled manual 0.0290.0140.0280.181***-0.112**-0.186*** (0.050)(0.035)(0.055)(0.038)(0.048)(0.037) Ordered Probit Estimates for Economic Insecurity (continued)

9. Ordered Probit Estimates for Economic Insecurity: Year Effects NECESSVALUEDUNEMPL RuralUrbanRuralUrbanRuralUrban Regressions for 1990s 1996 -0.071 -0.024 - - -0.035 -0.084*** (0.049) (0.028) (0.046) (0.028) 1998 -0.232*** -0.314*** -0.262*** -0.271*** -0.138** -0.249*** (0.057) (0.039) (0.056) (0.041) (0.055) (0.040) Regressions for 2000s 2001 0.189*** 0.124*** - - 0.001 0.181*** (0.042) (0.027) (0.044) (0.027) 2002 0.069 0.112*** 0.145*** 0.137*** 0.031 0.107*** (0.045) (0.028) (0.050) (0.030) (0.046) (0.029) 2003 0.063 0.163*** 0.039 0.153*** 0.045 0.156*** (0.045) (0.028) (0.049) (0.029) (0.047) (0.029) 2004 0.056 0.181*** 0.055 0.229*** -0.037 0.148*** (0.045) (0.028) (0.048) (0.030) (0.048) (0.029) Numbers is bold reflect statistically significant rural-urban differences at 5% or better

10. Estimated Conditional Probabilities of Economic Insecurity: NECESS NECESS 1995-19982000-2004 RuralUrbanRuralUrban Age 15-2478.9678.8172.7165.70 Age 25-3984.1884.1977.7271.34 Age 40-5483.70 79.9273.87 Age over 5481.3081.2375.1568.43 Single men74.1973.3868.3260.58 Married men79.4578.9074.3867.27 Single women87.0686.8682.6376.81 Married women86.9486.7480.9374.79 Secondary degree or less84.4784.9278.3872.53 Vocational-level training84.0884.5378.8073.01 University-level training80.8881.2875.9569.78 Less than 1 year job tenure81.8381.7478.2371.93 1-3 years job tenure82.7282.6677.1770.71 3-10 years job tenure83.0182.9676.8070.28 More than 10 years job tenure84.0484.0278.6672.41

11. Estimated Conditional Probabilities of Economic Insecurity: VALUED VALUED 1995-19982000-2004 RuralUrbanRuralUrban Age 15-2449.9154.9941.9141.96 Age 25-3952.7157.7649.0149.19 Age 40-5456.3261.3159.3859.73 Age over 5457.5162.4763.9264.34 Single men49.6354.4452.4952.60 Married men49.0253.8346.0946.10 Single women58.2962.9860.7761.01 Married women59.1063.7657.1757.36 Secondary degree or less56.7762.3554.6155.54 Vocational-level training54.4360.0854.2855.21 University-level training52.0457.7251.0051.89 Less than 1 year job tenure53.7158.9752.5152.92 1-3 years job tenure51.7657.0451.2751.67 3-10 years job tenure55.4060.6353.8554.28 More than 10 years job tenure54.5459.7854.3354.77

12. Estimated Conditional Probabilities of Economic Insecurity: UNEMPL UNEMPL 1995-19982000-2004 RuralUrbanRuralUrban Age 15-2439.4639.7131.1724.35 Age 25-3947.6648.0036.1528.90 Age 40-5453.1553.5545.1837.48 Age over 5453.7054.1145.9038.17 Single men43.7843.6933.9026.68 Married men42.1642.0534.2927.04 Single women56.8956.9746.9739.11 Married women57.8757.9643.9736.18 Secondary degree or less52.0553.3340.7033.44 Vocational-level training51.4052.6839.5532.35 University-level training47.3048.5439.5432.34 Less than 1 year job tenure47.8848.4235.1628.16 1-3 years job tenure47.4848.0236.9929.85 3-10 years job tenure49.9650.5340.6033.25 More than 10 years job tenure53.5954.1844.3836.88

13. Rural and urban workers differ in their observed characteristics. Urban workers tend to have more education. The proportion of managers and professionals is significantly greater among urban workers. Rural workers are more likely to hold jobs in semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations and are more likely to be male. How much of the differences in perceptions is due to differences in the observed characteristics? Estimating the rural-urban gap in perceptions 1.Overall predicted rural-urban difference in probabilities of being concerned 2.Predicted rural-urban differential that would prevail if all workers (both rural and urban) resided in cities within the same region, 3.Predicted rural-urban difference in perceptions that would prevail if all workers (both rural and urban) resided in cities within their reported region of residence Rural-Urban Differences in Perceptions

14. Rural-Urban Differences in Predicted Probability of Being Concerned Concerned about necessities Does not have valued skills Concerned about unemployment 1990s2000s1990s2000s1990s2000s Overall rural–urban difference1.477.66-4.750.561.098.33 Rural–urban difference; metropolitan areas excluded-0.195.54-4.98-1.17-0.786.47 Rural–urban difference if all workers reside in urban areas within the reference region; metropolitan areas excluded0.921.440.901.920.420.08 Rural–urban difference if all workers reside in urban areas within their region of residence; metropolitan areas excluded1.981.650.241.361.26-0.74

15. Conclusions Perceptions of economic insecurity among Russian workers are substantial. More than 80% of the workers in the 1990s were concerned about getting basic necessities and more than half felt they had few (if any) valued skills. Perceptions of economic insecurity are higher among workers with less education, among women, and manual workers. Perceptions of economic insecurity during the transition period are essentially the same for workers in rural and urban settlements, but that in the post-transition economy, workers in rural settlements have higher perceived insecurity Even though some part of the rural-urban difference in perceptions is due to variation in observed characteristics of workers residing in rural and urban locales, most of the rural- urban perceptions gap is due to different rates of economic recovery in rural and urban locales.