1. LBTI ORR Pre-Briefing to the Board April 14, 2015 1

2. Board NameAffiliation Dr. Scott Gaudi, ChairOhio State University Dr. Theo ten BrummelaarGeorgia State / CHARA Dr. Sam RaglandWM Keck Observatory (WMKO) Dr. Gerard van BelleLowell Observatory Dr. Marc KuchnerGoddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Dr. Ellyn BainesNaval Research Laboratory (NRL) 2 Observers Hashima HasanNASA, Program Scientist Debra WallaceNASA, Deputy Program Scientist Mario PerezNASA, Program Executive Gary BlackwoodJPL, Exoplanet Exploration Program Office

3. Org Chart 3 Program Science Office Scientist - Dr. S. Unwin Exoplanet Exploration Program Office Program Manager – Dr. G. Blackwood Program Chief Scientist – Dr. W. Traub Program Chief Technologist – Dr. N. Siegler Program Engineering Office K. Warfield Astrophysics Division, NASA HQ Program Executive – M. Perez Program Scientist – Dr. Hashima Hasan Deputy PS – Dr. Debra Wallace ExoPlanet TAC 1 Dr. A. Boss Carnegie Institute Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) Manager – Dr. M. Jeganathan, JPL Proj Scientist – Dr. R. Millan-Gabet, Caltech PI – Dr. P. Hinz, UA Manager – S. H. Bailey, UA Astrophysics Division, NASA HQ Director – Dr. P. Hertz Dep. Director/Program Director – A. Razzaghi NASA Exoplanet Science Institute (Caltech) Exec. Director – Dr. C. Beichman Deputy Director – Dr. R. Akeson Manager – Dr. D. Imel

4. ORR Success Criteria 4 1.The ORR performance requirements [12 zodi, 0.4 mJy, and 35 in-guide stars] are sufficient to meet the PLRA science objectives [inform future mission design and sensitivity >10x higher than state of the art] 1.LBTI ORR performance requirements a)LBTI demonstrates 12 zodi sensitivity (1 , single star measurement, PLRA zodi model). b)In-guide plan (available nights) and assumptions (efficiencies and current capability) for SVP and HOSTS are documented and the science scope (<2 zodi uncertainty on median) are all consistent. c)Credible plans* documented to meet PLRA threshold performance requirements (6 zodi, 0.3 mJy) by end of science validation phase with risk that is medium or lower. 2.LBTI science data management planning and procedures meet all PLRA requirements 3.The necessary interferometer operations plans and procedures are complete, documented and in place, and under configuration management 4.The necessary pipeline processing algorithms, plans and procedures are complete, documented and in place, and under configuration management 5.The necessary staffing is in place and training has taken place 6.Project risks are documented and acceptable 7.During SVP, UA is ready to assume responsibility for LBTI operations and data delivery; and NExSci is ready to assume responsibility for archive * scope, supporting analysis, baseline schedule, personnel, contingency, risks 0.

5. Intended Results of this Briefing 1.The Board understands the relationship between ORR performance requirements and the PLRA baseline science objectives, baseline science requirements and threshold science requirements 2.The Board understands the analysis basis for the success criteria, in terms of zodi sensitivity and # stars surveyed, to meet the Mission Success Criteria documented in the PLRA (inform the design of a future NASA space mission and sensitivity at least an order of magnitude higher than the current state of the art) 5

6. ORR Success Criteria ORR success criteria derived from LBTI Programmatic Requirements in§4 of PLRA – Emphasis on Threshold requirements instead of Baseline requirements Other Sections less important – Section 2 lists science and technology objectives, and defines zodi unit LBTI Baseline Science Objectives ( § 2.1) are restated as Mission Success Criteria ( § 4.3) – Section 3 discusses roles and responsibilities & data rights – Sections 5-11 not relevant to ORR

7. L0 – Mission Success Criteria ( § 4.3) A.Provide measurements necessary to inform the design of a future NASA space mission to directly image and characterize exo-Earths around nearby main sequence stars. B.Provide measurements of exozodi levels around nearby main sequence stars with sensitivity at least an order of magnitude higher than the current state of the art.

8. L1 - Performance Requirement § 4.1.2 Threshold success criteria: Survey the exozodiacal flux of 50 nearby stars with a 1  noise equivalent corresponding to six times the signal due to the zodiacal dust in our own planetary system (six zodi). Complete the HOSTS survey within 4 years after completion of commissioning. C. Measure the exozodiacal flux with a 1  noise equivalent corresponding to six times the signal due to the zodiacal dust in our own planetary system (six zodi). D. Survey 50 nearby stars within 4 years after completion of commissioning 8

9. L2 - Instrument Requirements (4.1.4) E.Photometric sensitivity (1  ): 0.3 mJy, over bandpass 10-12.5 (standard N’ filter), to be reached during the elementary per-star observing sequence F.Calibrated null stability (1  ) of 1.5x10 -4 (planned null depth 1x10 -3 ), 2 to be reached for a full calibration cycle. G.The elementary observing sequence includes measurements to calibrate the background and provide flux normalization, and is expected to last about 30 min with 30% duty cycle, resulting in about 10 min of integration time. 9

10. Motivation for relaxing ORR Entrance Criteria Eighteen of fifty HOSTS nights have already been consumed for commissioning. LBTI best performance to date is 15 zodi (500 ppm calibrated null uncertainty) – 12 zodi (400 ppm calibrated null uncertainty) achieved with additional target-calibrator sequence (2x threshold requirement) How best to proceed with allocated resources – 32 nights available (in FY16 and FY17; in-guide plan) – Better understand the impact of Exo-zodi median level uncertainty on the design and predicted science yield of future exo-Earth Direct Imaging missions 10

11. Exozodi impact on planet Detection Study carried out by Mennesson and Stark on – Impact of “smooth” exo-zodi level uncertainty on the predicted science yield (sensitivity) of a future exo-Earth imaging mission – Impact of exo-zodi level uncertainty on (predicted) ability to discriminate exoplanets from exozodi clumps Conclusion: Exozodi clumps lead to greater confusion in interpreting observations – cannot be mitigated by integration time 11

12. False positives of exozodi clumps 12 If exo-zodi level is around 10-20x higher than in solar system, resonant dust ring structures could be brighter than an exo-Earth at 1AU (Figure from Defrere et al. 2012) 1 zodi 5 zodi 10 zodi 20 zodi 50 zodi 100 zodi

13. Exozodi clumps drive requirements of future exo-Earth missions Current simulations (Stark, Kuchner, Defrere, etc.) suggest that at the 10-20 zodi level, dust clumps could outshine the reflected signal of an Earth-like planet and be very close to it, creating a major source of confusion and false positives for a future mission – The exact brightness and location of these clumps will be stellar system specific (function of Mp, ap, rdust) In order to properly assess this risk, the median exozodi level should be measured down to a fraction of this 10-20 zodi confusion threshold This “confusion uncertainty” (bright clumps) issue is likely more important than the sensitivity uncertainty, and should drive the LBTI performance requirement 13

14. Derived LBTI Survey Requirements How does the maximum tolerable uncertainty on the median exozodi level of solar type stars fit in the PLRA space of number of stars observed (N) vs measurement uncertainty per star (  Z ) If N stars are observed with an individual (1  ) uncertainty of  Z zodis, we assume* that the resulting (1  ) uncertainty on the median zodi level for that class of stars is then  Z /sqrt(N) E.g., aiming for a median uncertainty of  Z /sqrt(N)   Z /4, which is the region left of the line below 14

15. LBTI Requirements to Inform Design of Future Missions 15 Low Confusion Uncertainty (Exozodi Well Characterized) High Confusion Uncertainty Medium Confusion Uncertainty Keck Survey Results Exozodi Poorly Characterized Very High Confusion Uncertainty Bertrand Mennesson, 2014 LBTI PLRA Threshold LBTI Today

16. State of the Art – Keck Nuller Demonstrated performance of 2000-3000 ppm calibrated null uncertainty – Colavita et al. 2009, PASP, 121, 1120 Surveyed 20 stars and demonstrated 24 zodi, 1  uncertainty on median exo­‐zodi level – Mennesson et al. 2014, ApJ, 797, 119 For solar type stars, using PLRA ring model, this translates to 130-200 zodi, 1 , single star measurement error 150 zodi 1 , typical single star measurement error 24 zodi, 1  uncertainty on median exo­‐zodi level 16

17. Recommendations Adopt a top-level requirement on the median exo-zodi level uncertainty to inform future exo-Earth missions – determine the median exo-zodi level of nearby solar type stars with a 1  uncertainty of  2 zodi (green region) – For statistical reasons, observations of >20 solar-type stars is required – Provides a framework for assessing performance against the two main LBTI survey parameters (number of stars and measurement uncertainty per star) Continue to work towards achieving threshold requirements during science validation phase (SVP, ~1 year duration) – Assess LBTI performance at end of SVP in a Science Operation Review (SOR) 17

18. PLRA Compliance 18 § Success Criteria Now (ORR) End of SVP In-guide Plan (FY17) With lien (FY18) L04.3A: 10x better L04.3B: inform missions * * L1 4.1.2 C: 6 zodi, 1   L1 4.1.2 D: 50 star survey  L2 4.1.4 E: 0.3 mJy sens.  L2 4.1.4 F: 1.5x10 -4 null stb  L2 4.1.4 G: 30% efficiency * Projection (when survey is complete)

19. Data Requirements ( § 4.2) H.LBTI Data (NOMIC-Nulling and LMIRCam) to be archived by NExScI and publicly distributed when the periods of exclusive use (§3.4.3) expire. Three types of data products shall be archived; the delivery time scales in each case are appropriate to the needs of the HOSTS survey: I.Level 0: Clean and merged raw science data; delivered from LBTI to NExScI within 72 hrs of observation. J.Level 1: Internally calibrated science data, delivered from the observatory to NExScI within 20 work days of observation. Internally calibrated data consists of: cleaned Level 0 images (dark subtracted, bad pixels removed, flat fielded, background subtracted) and files containing derived quantities (null and stellar fluxes, associated errors, diagnostic quantities). K.Level 2: Externally calibrated science data, delivered from the observatory to NExScI within 40 work days of observation. Externally calibrated data files contan fully calibrated nulls and associated errors (effects of instrument’s transfer function removed), and result from processing multiple Leve 1 files obtained on the target star and its calibrator stars. 19

20. PLRA Compliance 20 § Success Criteria Now (ORR) End of SVP In- guide plan With lien (FY 18) L1 4.2.1 H: Archive & distribute L2 4.2.2 I: L0 data in 72 hrs L2 4.2.2 J: L1 data in 20 days L2 4.2.2 K: L2 data in 40 days

21. ORR Success Criteria 21 1.The ORR performance requirements [12 zodi, 0.4 mJy, and 35 in-guide stars] are sufficient to meet the PLRA science objectives [inform future mission design and sensitivity >10x higher than state of the art] 1.LBTI ORR performance requirements a)LBTI demonstrates 12 zodi sensitivity (1 , single star measurement, PLRA zodi model). b)In-guide plan (available nights) and assumptions (efficiencies and current capability) for SVP and HOSTS are documented and the science scope (<2 zodi uncertainty on median) are all consistent. c)Credible plans* documented to meet PLRA threshold performance requirements (6 zodi, 0.3 mJy) by end of science validation phase with risk that is medium or lower. 2.LBTI science data management planning and procedures meet all PLRA requirements 3.The necessary interferometer operations plans and procedures are complete, documented and in place, and under configuration management 4.The necessary pipeline processing algorithms, plans and procedures are complete, documented and in place, and under configuration management 5.The necessary staffing is in place and training has taken place 6.Project risks are documented and acceptable 7.During SVP, UA is ready to assume responsibility for LBTI operations and data delivery; and NExSci is ready to assume responsibility for archive * scope, supporting analysis, baseline schedule, personnel, contingency, risks 0.

22. Summary Exozodi simulation and analysis provides a basis to quantify LBTI science objective of informing the design of a future NASA space mission to directly image and characterize exo-Earths Request Board evaluate whether the ORR performance requirements meet the PLRA science objectives/mission success criteria 22

23. Backups 23

24. Acronym List HOSTSHunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems KI or KINKeck Interferometer Nuller L0, L1, L2, L3Level 0, 1, 2, 3 LBTLarge Binocular Telescope LBTILarge Binocular Telescope Interferometer LEECHLBTI Exoplanet Exozodi Common Hunt PLRAProgram-Level Requirement Appendix SORScience Operations Review (end of SVP) SVPScience Validation Phase (post-ORR to SOR) 24