1. 1 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Towards Better Targeted and Focused Poverty Reduction Programs 2012 MCPI Annual Conference 9:00 AM, 26 July 2012 Hyatt Hotel, Manila Presented by Ms. Jessamyn O. Encarnacion Director, Social Statistics Office National Statistical Coordination Board

2. 2 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Outline of Presentation I.Introduction II.Official Poverty Estimation Methodology III.2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. National B. Regional/Provincial C. Basic Sectors D. Employed and Unemployed Population IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

3. 3 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD I. Introduction Executive Order 352 Designation of Statistical Activities that will Generate Critical Data for Decision-making of the Government and the Private Sector Issued on July 1, 1996 The Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat) created by the NSCB is in charge of the formulation/development of the official poverty estimation methodology. The NSCB generates and releases the official poverty statistics in the Philippines. SOURCE OF OFFICIAL POVERTY STATISTICS IN THE PHILIPPINES

4. 4 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD What is the Food Threshold? Refers to the minimum income/expenditure required for a family/individual to meet the basic food needs, which satisfies the nutritional requirements for economically necessary and socially desirable physical activities Also referred to as the subsistence threshold or the food poverty line SOME DEFINITIONS I. Introduction

5. 5 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD What is the Poverty Threshold? Refers to the minimum income/expenditure required for a family/individual to meet the basic food and non-food requirements Basic Non-Food Requirement includes: 1) clothing and footwear; 2) fuel, light and water; 3) housing maintenance and other minor repairs; 4) rental of occupied dwelling units; 5) medical care; 6) education; 7) transportation & communication; 8) non-durable furnishing; 9) household operations and 10) personal care and effects Basic Non-Food Requirement excludes: 1) recreation; 2) tobacco; 3) alcoholic beverages; 4) durable furnishings; 5) taxes; 6) special family occasion expenditure; 7) total gifts and contributions; 8) total other disbursements (e.g., major repair of house, loans granted to person outside family; amortization of real property). Is equal to the cost of minimum basic needs: food + non-food SOME DEFINITIONS I. Introduction

6. 6 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Who are the Food Poor/Core Poor? Refers to families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per capita food threshold Who are the Poor? Refers to families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per capita poverty threshold SOME DEFINITIONS I. Introduction If a family is poor, all the members of the family are considered poor

7. 7 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD What is the Magnitude of the Food Poor/Core Poor? Refers to the number of families/individuals who are food poor/core poor What is the Magnitude of the Poor? Refers to the number of families/individuals who are poor SOME DEFINITIONS I. Introduction

8. 8 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD What is subsistence incidence? Refers to the proportion of families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per capita food threshold to the total number of families/ individuals Is Equal to the proportion of the food poor What is poverty incidence? Refers to the proportion of families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per capita poverty threshold to the total number of families/individuals Is Equal to the proportion of the poor SOME DEFINITIONS I. Introduction Both subsistence incidence and poverty incidence can be expressed as proportion of families or proportion of individuals

9. 9 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD YearRefinementsConsiderations 1987 19921 st Refinements were made so as not to overestimate poverty 20032 nd Refinements were made to generate provincial poverty statistics by using regional menus priced using provincial prices. 2010/20113 rd Refinements were undertaken to enhance comparability of estimates across space and over time. History of the official poverty estimation methodology The 1 st official poverty estimation methodology was adopted in 1987. Between 1987-2011 (24 years), there were three refinements on the methodology since its adoption. I. Introduction

10. 10 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD II. Official Poverty Estimation Methodology

11. 11 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Actual Prices 100% RENI for energy 100% RENI for protein 80% RENI for vitamins and minerals PROVINCIAL food bundle Farmgate Price Food eaten in the area Retail Price LEAST cost “Visualizable” FOOD THRESHOLD If income/expenditure of family/individual is less than food threshold Provincial SUBSISTENCE INCIDENCE and MAGNITUDE OF SUBSISTENCE POOR National food bundle II. Official Poverty Estimation Methodology FNRI NSO and BAS NSCB DATA SOURCES

12. 12 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Meal TimeViands BreakfastScrambled egg Boiled rice Coffee with milk LunchBoiled monggo with malunggay and dried dilis Banana, latundan Boiled rice DinnerFried tulingan Boiled kangkong Boiled rice SnacksPandesal National reference food bundle from the Test of Revealed Preference Meal TimeViands BreakfastScrambled egg Coffee with milk Boiled rice/rice-corn mix LunchBoiled/ginataang monggo with malunggay and dried dilis Banana Boiled rice/corn mix DinnerFried fish/boiled pork Vegetable dish Boiled rice/rice-corn mix SnacksBread or boiled rootcrop Sample translation: NCR I. Introduction

13. 13 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Non-food threshold Food threshold Constant FE/TBE ratio POVERTY THRESHOLD If income/expenditure of family/individual is less than poverty threshold Provincial POVERTY INCIDENCE and MAGNITUDE OF POOR ACTUAL Non-Food Basic Needs Education Clothing & footwear Medical care Transportation & communication Fuel, light & water Housing Housing maintenance & other minor repairs Non-durable furnishings Household operations Personal care & effects Rental of occupied dwelling unit II. Official Poverty Estimation Methodology

14. 14 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

15. 15 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD In 2009, family of five* needed PhP 160 daily income to meet food needs and PhP 231 to stay out of poverty! Daily Poverty Threshold for a Family of Five (in PhP) III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Inflation for food: 2006-2009:24.3% Note: Applying 2010 and 2011 / Ave. of Jan - June 2012 Food CPI (2006=100) to 2009 Food threshold: 2010 : Phils = PhP 167 2012 : Phils = PhP 177 2011 : Phils = PhP 176 Note: Applying 2010 and 2011/ Ave. of Jan - June 2012 CPI for all items (2006=100) to 2009 poverty threshold: 2010 threshold= PhP 240 2010 threshold= PhP 256 2011 threshold= PhP 251 A. NATIONAL: Daily Threshold (family of five) Daily Food Threshold for a Family of Five (in PhP)

16. 16 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Among FAMILIES: Subsistence incidence among families improved – from 8.7% in 2006 to 7.9% in 2009. Out of 100 families --- 9 families were classified as food poor in 2006, this was reduced to 8 out of 100 families in 2009. Subsistence Incidence among Families (%) Poverty Incidence among Families (%) (0.2) 8.7 7.9 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. NATIONAL: Subsistence Incidence (families)

17. 17 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD (0.8) Subsistence Incidence among Families (%) Poverty Incidence among Families (%) (0.2) 8.7 7.9 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. NATIONAL: Poverty Incidence (Families) Among FAMILIES: In terms of poverty incidence among families, there was only a slight reduction during the three-year period – from 21.1% in 2006 to 20.9% in 2009.

18. 18 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Among POPULATION: Subsistence incidence among population improved – from 11.7% in 2006 to 10.8% in 2009! Out of 100 Filipinos -- 12 Filipinos were classified as food poor in 2006, this was reduced to 11 in 2009! (0.9) 0.1 Subsistence Incidence among Population (in %) Poverty Incidence among Population (in %) III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. NATIONAL: Subsistence Incidence (Population)

19. 19 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD (0.9) 0.1 Subsistence Incidence among Population (in %) Poverty Incidence among Population (in %) III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. NATIONAL: Poverty Incidence (Population) Among POPULATION: In terms of poverty incidence among population, there was a very slight increase during the three-year period – from 26.4% in 2006 to 26.5% in 2009.

20. 20 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD MAGNITUDE among FAMILIES: Magnitude of subsistence poor families decreased by about 58,000 from 1.51 million in 2006 to 1.45 million out of 18.5M in 2009! However, in terms of magnitude of poor families, there was an increase of about 185,000 from 3.67 million in 2006 to 3.86 million out of 18.5M in 2009! (4.0%) 5.2% Magnitude of Subsistence Poor Families (in million) Magnitude of Poor Families (in million) III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. NATIONAL: Magnitude of subsistence/poor families

21. 21 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD MAGNITUDE among POPULATION: Magnitude of subsistence poor population decreased by about 410,000 in 2009 – from 9.9 million in 2006 to 9.4 million out of 87.4M in 2009! The magnitude of poor population increased by almost 970,000 Filipinos- from 22.2 million in 2006 to 23.1 out of 87.4M in 2009 by 4.4%. (4.2%) Magnitude of Subsistence Poor Population (in million) Magnitude of Poor Population (in million) 4.4 % III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. NATIONAL: Magnitude of subsistence/poor population

22. 22 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Indicator2003 to 20062006 to 2009 AMONG FAMILIES Subsistence Incidence, Families + 0.5- 0.8 Poverty Incidence, Families+ 1.1- 0.2 Magnitude of Food Poor Families+ 154,000- 58,000 Magnitude of Poor Families+ 378,000+ 185,000 AMONG POPULATION Subsistence Incidence, Population+0.6- 0.9 Poverty Incidence, Population+ 1.5+ 0.1 Magnitude of Food Poor Population+1.05 million- 0.41 million Magnitude of Poor Population+2.38 million+ 0.97 million Summary of increases/decreases: A. NATIONAL: Summary While food poverty and poverty deteriorated between 2003 and 2006, these improved between 2006 and 2009 – except for the increases in the poverty incidence among population, magnitude of poor families and magnitude of poor population. The increases, however, were not as much as between 2003 and 2006! III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

23. 23 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD In terms of poverty incidence among population in ASEAN countries, the Philippines is better off than Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Cambodia; but behind Vietnam (14.5%) and Indonesia (14.2%). Note: Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but is not classified as a developing member country. Sources: Millennium Indicators Database Online (UNSD 2010), Pacific Regional Information System (SPC 2010), country sources. (http://www.adb.org/documents/books/key_indicators/2010/pdf/Key-Indicators-2010.pdf ) III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

24. 24 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Average per capita income of the bottom 10% of families rose faster than prices of food! Indicator20062009% Change Subsistence Incidence (among families)8.77.9(0.8) Inflation (food)130.7162.424.3 Inflation (all items)137.9160.016.0 Annual Per Capita Food Threshold9,25711,68626.2 Mean/average per capita income (APCI) All income groups35,788 43,538 21.7 First decile class 7,389 9,681 31.0 Second decile class 11,263 14,542 29.1 Third decile class 14,599 18,542 27.0 Fourth decile class 18,249 23,003 26.0 Fifth decile class 22,781 28,281 24.1 Sixth decile class 28,493 35,068 23.1 Seventh decile class 36,551 44,358 21.4 Eight decile class 48,200 58,362 21.1 Ninth decile class 69,335 83,662 20.7 Tenth decile class 151,130 184,997 22.4 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. NATIONAL: Rise in Income vs Rise in Prices-Bottom 10%

25. 25 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Average per capita income of the bottom 30% of families rose faster than prices of all items! Indicator20062009% Change Poverty Incidence (among families)21.120.9(0.2) Inflation (food)130.7162.424.3 Inflation (all items)137.9160.016.0 Annual Per Capita Poverty Threshold13,34816,84126.2 Mean/average per capita income (APCI) All income groups35,788 43,538 21.7 First decile class 7,389 9,681 31.0 Second decile class 11,263 14,542 29.1 Third decile class 14,599 18,542 27.0 Fourth decile class 18,249 23,003 26.0 Fifth decile class 22,781 28,281 24.1 Sixth decile class 28,493 35,068 23.1 Seventh decile class 36,551 44,358 21.4 Eight decile class 48,200 58,362 21.1 Ninth decile class 69,335 83,662 20.7 Tenth decile class 151,130 184,997 22.4 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. NATIONAL: Rise in Income vs Rise in Prices-Bottom 30%

26. 26 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Caraga and Region IX consistently posted the highest subsistence incidence among families in 2006 and 2009! Improvements in Reg VII and Reg V! Region Subsistence incidence among families 200320062009 PHILIPPINES8.28.77.9 Caraga16.616.919.7 Region IX25.117.918.6 Region X16.116.315.6 Region VIII11.113.514.4 Region VII16.017.113.2 Region V18.015.712.9 Region XII10.610.811.3 Region XI12.312.111.0 Region IV-B11.12.810.5 ARMM7.311.68.5 Region VI9.17.9 CAR5.88.37.6 Region I5.87.15.5 Region II4.14.34.1 Region III2.33.7 Region IV-A2.42.82.4 NCR0.30.70.4 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL

27. 27 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Caraga and ARMM consistently posted the highest poverty incidence among families in 2006 and 2009! Region Poverty incidence among families 200320062009 PHILIPPINES20.021.120.9 Caraga37.636.9 39.8 ARMM25.036.5 38.1 Region IX40.534.2 36.6 Region V38.036.1 36.0 Region VIII30.231.1 33.2 Region X32.432.7 32.8 Region VII32.133.5 30.2 Region XII27.227.1 28.1 Region IV-B29.834.3 27.6 Region XI25.426.2 25.6 Region VI23.522.1 23.8 Region I17.820.4 17.8 CAR16.118.6 17.1 Region II15.215.5 14.5 Region III9.412.0 Region IV-A9.29.4 10.3 NCR2.13.4 2.6 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL

28. 28 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Regions VII, V, and X continue to have the biggest share in the total number of food poor families! Region Magnitude of Food Poor Families% Share to Total Food Poor Families 200320062009200320062009 PHILIPPINES1,357,8331,511,5791,453,843100.0 Region VII194,352220,692181,64914.314.612.5 Region V169,869158,936137,52712.810.59.5 Region X118,924128,513131,3048.88.59.0 Region VIII83,573110,071124,5476.27.38.6 Region IX147,137117,655122,89310.87.88.5 Region VI114,929108,585115,2988.57.27.9 Region XI99,437101,48496,9697.36.7 Caraga69,10075,22192,8035.15.06.4 Region XII74,99080,52290,3055.55.36.2 Region III40,82069,95775,5853.04.65.2 Region IV-B55,51781,69262,1514.15.44.3 Region IV-A53,48762,16658,4683.94.14.0 Region I51,12766,77554,8393.84.43.8 ARMM36,95261,86348,6862.74.13.3 Region II23,79026,85026,7921.8 CAR16,15125,24524,6251.21.7 NCR7,67715,3549,4000.61.00.6 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL

29. 29 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Regions VII, V, and VI continue to have the biggest share in the total number poor families! Region Magnitude of Poor Families% Share to Total Poor Families 200320062009200320062009 PHILIPPINES 3,293,096 3,670,791 3,855,730100.0 100 Region VII 389,818 432,870 415,30311.8 10.8 Region V 358,981 364,318 385,33810.99.910.0 Region VI 298,058 302,836 345,7039.18.29.0 Region VIII 227,458 253,347 287,1566.9 7.4 Region X 239,874 257,640 275,4337.37.07.1 Region IV-A 201,725 210,830 248,1796.15.76.4 Region III 169,771 228,741 244,2735.26.26.3 Region IX 237,898 224,378 242,2857.26.16.3 Region XI 205,966 220,707 226,2846.36.05.9 Region XII 192,545 203,000 224,8825.85.55.8 ARMM 126,233 194,626 218,0433.85.35.7 Caraga 156,221 163,783 187,2784.74.54.9 Region I 156,261 193,392 179,1794.75.34.6 Region IV-B 148,924 186,838 162,6094.55.14.2 Region II 89,352 96,311 94,4332.72.62.4 NCR 48,923 80,828 64,4041.52.21.7 CAR 45,088 56,346 54,9491.41.51.4 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL

30. 30 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD New entrants in the least poor cluster of provinces in 2009 were Ilocos Norte, Bataan, and Nueva Vizcaya! B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Batanes, the 4 districts of NCR, Benguet, Cavite, Bulacan, Laguna, Rizal, and Pampanga were consistently included in the least poor cluster of provinces in 2003, 2006, and 2009! III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Province 200320062009 Poverty incidence 90% CI Poverty incidence 90% CI Poverty incidence 90% CI Lower limit Upper limit Lower limit Upper limit Lower limit Upper limit 1st District1.10.41.73.11.74.53.825.6 2nd District2.61.73.43.82.15.52.41.63.2 3rd District2.61.73.53.72.64.83.82.55.1 4th District1.81.12.42.923.71.60.72.5 Bataan8.15.1117.2410.57.44.810 Batanes6.3 000000 Benguet4.41.77.13.62.15426.1 Bulacan4.32.95.75.13.76.64.83.75.9 Cavite4.83.46.24.22.65.74.53.15.9 Ilocos Norte14.37.920.611.35.816.99.26.112.3 Laguna5.23.56.94.5365.94.17.6 Nueva Vizcaya3.21.84.65.81.410.36.72.910.5 Pampanga4.93.56.33.82.45.26.74.98.4 Rizal2.91.93.92.71.63.76.54.28.7

31. 31 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Agusan del Sur, Bohol, Maguindanao, Masbate, Surigao del Norte and Zamboanga del Norte were consistently included in the bottom cluster of provinces in 2003, 2006, and 2009! III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Province 200320062009 Poverty incidence 90% CI Poverty incidence 90% CI Poverty incidence 90% CI Lower limitUpper limitLower limit Upper limit Lower limitUpper limit Agusan del Sur48.541.355.645.538.252.951.243.558.9 Apayao10.73.418.03724.649.436.323.249.4 Bohol40.233.846.743.735.851.641.033.648.4 Camarines Norte40.728.652.930.421.639.232.325.339.2 Camarines Sur38.332.544.136.63142.338.733.843.6 Camiguin35.131.538.737.821.953.736.425.946.8 Davao Oriental35.626.744.4392850.142.536.448.6 Eastern Samar29.820.53937.631.843.545.837.654.1 Lanao del Norte35.62744.134.328.140.63931.946.1 Maguindanao41.934.449.544.93950.944.637.751.6 Masbate50.242.35842.933.951.842.536.648.3 Misamis Occidental3730.643.438.230.745.736.929.744.1 Negros Oriental43.635.651.544.436.152.736.429.543.2 Northern Samar37.427.947.043.332.953.841.732.451 Occidental Mindoro32.624.940.340.630.450.725.418.332.4 Romblon 35.827.9 43.7 40.634.746.64336.349.8 Saranggani36.728.445.134.029.238.840.73447.3 Siquijor45.527.463.525.813.937.632.821.344.3 Sultan Kudarat37.328.146.538.730.946.535.228.841.7 Sulu20.313.427.136.729.144.239.33345.5 Surigao Del Norte42.335.249.441.634.948.347.943.152.8 Tawi-tawi18.28.128.249.139.858.431.522.240.8 Zamboanga del Norte59.551.467.554.146.461.752.94659.8 Zamboanga Sibugay43.333.353.234.125.742.543.235.450.9

32. 32 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Cebu and Negros Occidental continue to have the biggest share in the total number of poor families! Province Magnitude of Poor Families% Share to Total Poor Families 200320062009200320062009 PHILIPPINES 3,293,096 3,670,791 3,855,730100 Cebu 185,624 211,406 213,162 5.6 5.8 5.5 Negros Occidental 112,512 130,077 144,828 3.4 3.5 3.8 Camarines Sur 116,460 119,747 126,280 3.5 3.3 Pangasinan 92,191 128,396 114,400 2.8 3.5 3.0 Nueva Ecija 64,808 94,026 112,367 2.0 2.6 2.9 Leyte 99,082 104,260 110,214 3.0 2.8 2.9 Zamboanga del Norte 102,074 101,511 109,745 3.1 2.8 Bohol 90,735 104,032 102,522 2.8 2.7 Quezon 84,031 101,394 98,426 2.6 2.8 2.6 Davao del Sur 88,165 89,452 94,049 2.7 2.4 Negros Oriental 105,334 112,585 91,387 3.2 3.1 2.4 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

33. 33 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: High Poverty Incidence In terms of poverty incidence, most provinces with more than 40% of total families are poor were located in Visayas and Mindanao. However, in terms of magnitude of poor families, provinces with more than 100,000 were mostly located in Luzon and Visayas. III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

34. 34 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Subsistence and poverty incidence among families in 2009 were notably high in Mindanao provinces. Provinces with high poverty and subsistence incidence 1.Zamboanga del Norte 2.Agusan del Sur 3.Eastern Samar 4.Surigao del Norte 5.Zamboanga Sibugay 6.Northern Samar

35. 35 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD C. POVERTY STATISTICS AMONG THE BASIC SECTORS Who are the basic sectors? III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics In Republic Act 8425, or the Social Reform and Poverty Alleviation Act, it was declared that the State should adopt an area-based sectoral and focused intervention to poverty alleviation. Section 3 of RA 8425 defined the basic sectors as the disadvantaged sectors of Philippine society, namely: 1.Farmer-peasant 2.Artisanal fisherfolk 3.Workers in the formal sector and migrant workers 4.Workers in the informal sector 5.Indigenous peoples and cultural communities 6.Women 7.Differently-abled persons

36. 36 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD C. POVERTY STATISTICS AMONG THE BASIC SECTORS Who are the basic sectors? III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics 8. Senior citizens; 9. Victims of calamities and disasters; 10. Youth and students; 11. Children; 12. Urban poor; 13. Cooperatives; and 14. Non-government organization.

37. 37 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD The NSCB generates poverty statistics for 9 of the 14 basic sectors due to data constraints. The 9 basic sectors are operationally defined as: SectorOperational Definition 1.FarmerEmployed household members 15 years old and over whose primary occupation is farming and plant growing, or animal production. 2. FishermenEmployed household members 15 years old and over whose primary occupation is fishing. 3. Workers in the Formal Sector and Migrant Workers Workers in the Formal Sector – Employed persons working for private establishments and government organizations and corporations. Migrant Workers – Individuals who are overseas Filipino workers (OFW). 4. WomenAn individual whose declared sex is female. III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics C. POVERTY STATISTICS AMONG THE BASIC SECTORS

38. 38 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD SectorOperational Definition 5. Senior citizensPersons 60 years old and above. 6. YouthYouth – Persons 15 to 30 years old. 7. ChildrenPersons below 18 years old 8. Individuals residing in urban areas An individual residing in an urban area whose income falls below the official poverty threshold. 9. Self-employed and unpaid family workers Employed individuals 15 years old and over who are either self employed or worked without pay on family owned business III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics C. POVERTY STATISTICS AMONG THE BASIC SECTORS The NSCB generates poverty statistics for 9 of the 14 basic sectors due to data constraints. The 9 basic sectors are operationally defined as:

39. 39 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Fishermen posted the highest poverty incidence among the nine basic sectors in the Philippines in 2009 at 41.4%, the same level in 2006, followed by farmers and children at poverty incidences of 36.7% and 35.1% in 2009, respectively. 41.4% 36.7% 35.1% III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

40. 40 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Poverty incidence for four basic sectors increased between 2006 and 2009: youth and migrant and formal sector workers, both with 1.0 percentage point increases, and children and individuals residing in urban areas, both with 0.3 percentage point increases. Sector 200320062009 Increase/ Decrease Poverty Incidence 90% Confidence Interval Pov. Inc. 90% Confidence Interval Pov. Inc. 90% Confidence Interval 2003 - 2006 2006 - 2009 Lower Limit Upper Limit Lower Limit Upper Limit Lower Limit Upper Limit Philippines 5/ 24.924.125.826.425.527.326.525.627.31.50.1 Fishermen35.032.437.641.438.644.241.438.943.96.40.0 Farmers37.035.538.437.235.738.736.735.438.10.2(0.5) Children32.731.533.934.833.63635.134.136.22.10.3 Self-employed and Unpaid Family Workers 1/ 28.026.829.329.428.230.729.027.930.21.4(0.4) Women24.0232525.124.126.125.124.3261.10.0 Youth19.018.119.920.819.921.721.820.922.61.81.0 Migrant and Formal Sector14.613.815.415.714.916.516.71617.41.11.0 Senior Citizens15.114.215.916.215.317.215.815.116.51.2(0.5) Individuals residing in urban areas 11.110.311.912.511.713.312.812.013.51.40.3 1/ Self-employed and Unpaid Family Workers is an additional sector, which serves as a proxy indicator for informal sector workers, considering data available in the PSS.

41. 41 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Children, women, and individuals residing in urban areas accounted for the largest number of poor population in the country in 2009 at 12.4 million, 11.2 million, and 5.7 million, respectively. Sector 200320062009 Magnitude of Poor 90% Confidence Interval Magnitude of Poor 90% Confidence Interval Magnitude of Poor 90% Confidence Interval Lower Limit Upper Limit Lower Limit Upper Limit Lower Limit Upper Limit Philippines 19,796,95419,110,45520,483,45322,173,19021,435,61322,964,38723,142,48122,363,30723,836,693 Children 11,363,85011,228,46911,499,23012,272,81912,126,24112,419,39812,414,81112,286,44812,543,174 Women 9,605,0379,509,1349,700,94010,691,07810,584,30310,797,85311,169,74511,075,81211,263,677 Individuals residing in urban areas 4,429,4244,394,4004,464,4485,310,5315,267,0255,354,0375,709,1705,664,6605,753,680 Youth 4,280,1974,242,0714,318,3234,850,6074,805,8324,895,3825,367,3085,323,3145,411,302 Self-employed and Unpaid Family Workers 3,566,5863,522,0463,611,1264,115,6324,064,7344,166,5304,186,1944,139,5654,232,823 Migrant and Formal Sector 2,283,7732,265,9402,301,6062,599,3362,578,8802,619,7923,118,7013,095,8683,141,534 Farmers 1,768,2491,742,3631,794,1351,773,4841,747,3541,799,6141,685,1481,662,4091,707,887 Senior Citizens 793,233786,342800,1241,035,0891,025,5831,044,5951,181,1211,172,6581,189,584 Fishermen 355,815346,524365,107400,214389,019411,409346,345337,765354,924

42. 42 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD D. City and Municipal Level Poverty Statistics III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Official provincial poverty statistics are computed based on the final results of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey. The FIES is costly to implement, with regions as current domains. The design of the FIES does not permit reliable analysis of smaller subgroups, such as cities and municipalities. There is a strong clamor from policymakers and program implementers for more geographically disaggregated information on the poorest cities/municipalities. In response to this need for poverty statistics at lower levels of disaggregation, the NSCB, with funding assistance from the World Bank implemented two projects on small area estimation (SAE) to generate poverty incidences at the city/municipal levels.

43. 43 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD D. City and Municipal Level Poverty Statistics III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics ProjectOutputYear Released Poverty Mapping in the Philippines 2000 city/municipal level poverty estimates 2005 Intercensal Updating of Small Area Poverty Estimates 2003 city/municipal level poverty estimates 2008 Used the Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) technique developed by a WB research team. Two projects undertaken by the NSCB with WB funding

44. 44 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD D. City and Municipal Level Poverty Statistics III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics 2003 Poverty Incidence among Population By province By city/municipality

45. 45 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD D. City and Municipal Level Poverty Statistics III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Actual Policy Uses 1.In targeting beneficiaries of programs/projects - Implementation of nationwide programs on the: 1) National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction; 2) Conditional Cash Transfers; 3) Comprehensive and Integrated Delivery of Social Services; and 4) Training/deployment of unemployed registered nurses in the 1,000 poorest cities/municipalities of the country.

46. 46 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD D. City and Municipal Level Poverty Statistics III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Actual Policy Uses 1.In targeting beneficiaries of programs/projects (cont.) - Identification of priority households for: 1) the implementation of a number of local livelihood projects for the five poorest municipalities of the provinces of Region VI under the Integrated Services for Livelihood Advancement of Fisherfolks (ISLA) and Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged Workers (TUPAD); 2) targeting enrolment in health insurance sponsored projects of the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation, specifically in Regions VIII and XII; 3) estimation of the volume of rice needed for the Food for Children program in Leyte province; and 4) implementation of programs/projects of the MPAI-World Vision for schooling of indigent children and micro-enterprise development.

47. 47 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD D. City and Municipal Level Poverty Statistics III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Actual Policy Uses 2.In policy formulation and planning - Design and implementation of local poverty action plans, particularly in Region VI; and - Development and monitoring of the Medium-Term Regional Development Plan (MTRDP), Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan, and Provincial Plan for Children in selected areas/localities. 3.In poverty monitoring - Monitoring the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Regions I, IV, and VIII; and - Monitoring the State of Children and nutritional status of the population in Regions IV and VIII, respectively.

48. 48 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD D. City and Municipal Level Poverty Statistics III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics The NSCB is currently updating the small area estimates of poverty for 2009. This is jointly funded by the Government of the Philippines and the World Bank. Consultations/validations were undertaken by the NSCB Technical Staff, with the Project Consultant and Technical Adviser: Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics on June 1, 2012 A validation of the preliminary estimates was undertaken on July 22-25, 2012. The 2009 poverty incidence among population for all cities and municipalities will be released by the NSCB through a national dissemination forum on July 30, 2012.

49. 49 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

50. 50 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Statistics20062009 Increase/Decr ease 06-09 Poverty Incidence Employed Population22.122.40.3 Unemployed Population15.822.46.6 Magnitude of Poor Employed Population7,254,8617,880,786625,925 Unemployed Population 372,062 465,106 93,044 Poverty incidence for the employed population increased from 22.1% in 2006 to 22.4% in 2009. Similarly, poverty incidence for the unemployed population increased from 15.8% in 2006 to 22.4% in 2009. Poverty incidence for employed population is higher than the poverty incidence for unemployed population both in 2006 and 2009! A. Poverty and Unemployment/Underemployment: Need for quality employment IV. Some Policy/Program Implications Employment is not sufficient, quality of employment matters!

51. 51 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 5,7986,058 5,7986,0585,6204 5,7986,0589,8357 5,7986,05811,2408 5,7986,0588,4306 5,7986,0584,2153 5,7986,0582,8102 5,7986,0581,4051 7,0255 Agriculture (PhP 223/day)Non-agriculture (PhP 233/day) Required monthly income (in PhP) Family sizeMonthly Income of a Minimum Wage Earner in 2009 REGIONAL (FOR Caraga): A minimum wage earner* in Caraga can support a family of at most four members in 2009, to be classified as non-poor! However, average family size in Caraga is 5! Minimum wage earner in Caraga employed in the agriculture and non-agriculture sector. Rate is effective 20 June 2008, per Wage order No. 9 (Source of data: http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_wage%20rates1989-present_non-agri.html ) For this exercise, number of working days considered in a month is 26. Gross family income was used. B. Poverty and Minimum Wage-Setting: Need for more poverty-sensitive minimum wage IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

52. 52 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 5,460 5,4444 5,460 9,5277 5,460 10,8888 5,460 8,1666 5,460 4,0833 5,460 2,7222 5,460 1,3611 6,8055 Agriculture (PhP 210/day)Non-agriculture (PhP 210/day) Required monthly income (in PhP) Family sizeMonthly Income of a Minimum Wage Earner in 2009 REGIONAL (FOR ARMM): A minimum wage earner* in ARMM can support a family of at most four members in 2009, to be classified as non-poor! However, average family size in ARMM is 5. Minimum wage earner in ARMM employed in the agriculture and non-agriculture sector. Rate is effective 29 June 2008, per Wage order No. 11 (Source of data: http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_wage%20rates1989- present_non-agri.html ) For this exercise, number of working days considered in a month is 26. Gross family income was used. IV. Some Policy/Program Implications B. Poverty and Minimum Wage-Setting: Need for more poverty-sensitive minimum wage

53. 53 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 5,5906,240 5,5906,2405,0524 5,5906,2408,8417 5,5906,24010,1048 5,5906,2407,5786 5,5906,2403,7893 5,5906,2402,5262 5,5906,2401,2631 6,3155 Agriculture (PhP 215/day)Non-agriculture (PhP 240/day) Required monthly income (in PhP) Family sizeMonthly Income of a Minimum Wage Earner in 2009 REGIONAL (FOR Region IX): A minimum wage earner* in Region IX can support a family of at most four members in 2009, to be classified as non-poor! However, average family size in Region IX is 5. Minimum wage earner in Region IX employed in the non-agriculture sector. Rate is effective 3 July 2008, per Wage order No. 15 (Source of data: http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_wage%20rates1989- present_non-agri.html ) For this exercise, number of working days considered in a month is 26. Gross family income was used. B. Poverty and Minimum Wage-Setting: Need for more poverty-sensitive minimum wage IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

54. 54 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD The increase in economic growth between 2006 and 2009 in Region IVB is well distributed across all income decile class. Poverty incidence decreased by 6.7% between 2006 and 2009. In contrast, in Region XII, the increase in economic growth is concentrated in the upper income decile classes. Poverty incidence also increased by 1.0% between 2006 and 2009. C. Poverty and Economic Growth: Need for better income distribution, inclusive growth IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

55. 55 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD D. Poverty and Population Management AllFood PoorPoorNon-Poor 20094.746.485.994.38 Average Family Size Poor families have bigger family size! IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

56. 56 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Poverty Incidence Among Families by Educational Attainment of the Household Head: 2003 and 2006 Families whose heads have lower educational attainment have higher poverty incidence! Educational Attainment20032006Inc./Dec. No Grade Completed44.445.51.0 Elementary Undergraduate36.836.5(0.2) Elementary Graduate25.428.83.4 High School Undergraduate20.722.61.9 High School Graduate11.113.12.0 College Undergraduate4.55.51.0 College Graduate1.72.30.6 Post Graduate2.20.0(2.2) Source: Special computations made by the NSCB Technical Staff using the official poverty statistics of the NSCB and the result of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) of the National Statistics Office (NSO). Note: Poverty estimates were only generated for 2003 and 2006 as the FIES datafile available to the NSCB contains very limited variables (i.e., 13 variables). IV. Some Policy/Program Implications – E. Poverty & Education

57. 57 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD No CCT in Eastern Samar in 2008- 2009 G. Poverty and targeting: The first round of CCT/4Ps in 2008-2009 did not benefit all subsistence poor provinces. CCT was not provided in any of the municipalities in Eastern Samar, which is one of the provinces with the highest subsistence incidence (25.7%) and highest poverty incidence (45.8%) among families in 2009. A total of 55 municipalities in least subsistence poor provinces also benefited from the CCT program!

58. 58 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD G. Poverty and targeting: In 2009, out of 138 cities and 1,496 municipalities, the following benefited from the CCT Program of the DSWD: With high poverty incidence – 139 municipalities and 75 cities With low poverty incidence – 28 municipalities and 18 cities No CCT in Eastern Samar in 2008- 2009 A total of 22 municipalities in least poor provinces also benefited from the CCT program!

59. 59 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD G. Poverty and targeting: Contiguous regions with high concentration of poor families could be prioritized in targeting/intervention programs. Nueva Ecija Pangasinan Cebu Bohol Negros Occidental Camarines Sur Leyte Zamboanga del Norte 5.9% 3.3% 14.9% 2.8% ProvinceNo. of Municipality with CCT Total no. of municipalities and cities Pangasinan748 Nueva Ecija1132 Camarines Sur537 Negros Occidental 832 Bohol148 Cebu653 Leyte1043 Zamboanga del Norte 27 IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

60. 60 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD With the latest 2009 poverty estimates, the probability of halving poverty, between 1990 and 2015, has gone down but remains at medium! IndicatorTarget1991200320062009 Poverty incidence among population 16.633.1 (Baseline) 24.926.426.5 Pace of Progress 0.990.650.53 Notes: The pace of progress is computed as the ratio of the actual annual growth rate and required annual growth rate. High: Pace of Progress is greater than 0.9 Medium: Pace of Progress between 0.5 and 0.9 Low: Pace of Progress is less than 0.5. Poverty and the MDGs IV. Some Policy/Program Implications - Poverty and the MDGs

61. 61 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD ActualTarget (given the present performance) Poverty Incidence among population Percentage point decrease Poverty Incidence among population Percentage point decrease 199133.1Annual reduction of 0.37 percentage points, between 1991-2009, from a baseline of 33.1 0.69 annually, between 1991- 2015, from a baseline of 33.1 200324.9 200626.4 200926.520.7 201218.61.65 annually, between 2010- 2015, from a baseline of 26.5% 201516.6 We need to reduce poverty incidence among population by 1.65 percentage points annually, from 2010 to 2015! This means that, on the average, there should be an annual reduction of 1.67 million in the magnitude of poor Filipinos from 2010 to 2015 TARGET Reduction in Poor Population Poverty Incidence among Population Annual Cumulative 2010 1,598,224 25.05 2011 1,628,372 3,226,59723.35 2012 1,658,671 4,885,26821.65 2013 1,689,113 6,574,38119.95 2014 1,719,689 8,294,07118.25 2015 1,750,410 10,044,48116.55

62. 62 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD. Poverty and the MDGs As of 2009, the Philippines was eight years behind target on poverty reduction! Only NCR, CAR, Regions II and IV-A are ahead of their targets! Notes: Time-distance (years): positive (+) – time lead (progress is ahead the path to target) Negative ( - ) – time lag (Progress is behind the path to target) The time distance is a new generic statistical measure for analysis and visualization of time series data. This was first developed by Prof. Pavle Sicherl of the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia. Region IX, Caraga, and ARMM are 27, 21, and 81 years behind the target in 2009. IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

63. 63 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD SOME POINTS FOR CONSIDERATION/QUESTIONS: 1.Towards poverty alleviation amidst resource constraints, need to balance support for the core poor, the poor and the middle class To sustain poverty reduction, need to maintain a healthy middle class? Improve education? 2.Should target be focused on reducing poverty incidence or reducing subsistence incidence? 3.Employment is not sufficient: quality of employment matters 4.Minimum wage setting – too many low paying jobs? 5.Importance of decent job creation IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

64. 64 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD SO MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES TO THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM on the generation of official poverty statistics: Annual poverty incidences and other measures of poverty; More timely official poverty statistics (i.e., regular generation of “advance” thresholds); Regular generation of small area estimates of poverty (i.e., at the city/municipal level); Harmonization/standardization of existing statistical frameworks on poverty reduction statistics (e.g., official poverty statistics, NHTSPR, CBMS, among others) ; Communicating official poverty statistics towards more actual policy uses; Well-being/Happiness of the poor; … AND THE LIST GOES ON… AND ON… BUT (next slide) IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

65. 65 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 1. There is a need for statistical capacity building, specially of the line agencies and the LGUs Many LGUs do not have a statistical unit or statistical personnel; Low compensation scheme for statistical personnel; Non-statisticians doing statistical work. 2.Statistics must be demand-driven; POLICY MAKERS must translate statistics into programs and policies 3.Statistical agencies must be relevant to stakeholders TO AID THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM IN RESPONDING TO THESE MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES: IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

66. 66 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD There is a great need for more resources for statistics, specially manpower! INVEST IN STATISTICS! INVEST IN STATISTICAL OFFICES! INVEST IN STATISTICIANS! TO AID THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM IN RESPONDING TO THESE MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES: IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

67. 67 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Maraming Salamat po! URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph e-mail: info@nscb.gov.ph

68. 68 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Who are the members of the Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat)? The Committee is composed of professionals/experts who have undertaken significant studies on poverty. Membership in the committee is based on individual expertise and not on representation by agency/institution. Chairperson: DR. CELIA M. REYES Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Vice Chairpersons: Dr. Romulo A. Virola Administrator Carmelita N. Ericta NSCBNational Statistics Office (NSO) Chairpersons of the Four Small Working Groups: Dr. Lisa Grace S. BersalesDr. Arsenio S. Balisacan UP School of StatisticsNational Economic and Development Authority / UP School of Economics Dr. Zita VJ AlbaceaMs. Dolores de Quiros-Castillo UP Institute of StatisticsFormer Asst. Sec., National Anti-Poverty Commission I. Introduction

69. 69 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Who are the members of the Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat)? Members: Dir. Erlinda M. Capones Dep. Adm. Paula Monina G. Collado National Economic Dev’t. Authority NSO Usec. Alicia R. Bala OIC-Dir. Myrna Asuncion Dept. of Social Welfare and Dev’t. NEDA Asst. Sec. Gen. Lina Castro Dr. Jose Ramon Albert NSCB PIDS Ms. Emma Fabian OIC-Dir. Jessamyn O. Encarnacion NSO NSCB Dir. Manuel Gotis Dr. Arturo Pacificador Dept. of Interior & Local Gov’t. De La Salle University Dir. Romeo S. Recide Prof. Ofelia M. Templo Bureau of Agricultural Statistics Ateneo de Manila University Dr. Jocelyn Juguan Ms. Susanita Tesiorna Food & Nutrition Research Institute Trade Union Congress of the Philippines I. Introduction

70. 70 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Some positive events between 2006 and 2009: PeriodEvent July 2009Increase in the salaries of government employees with the implementation of the 1 st of four parts of the Salary Standardization Law III. 2008Conditional cash transfer (CCT) implemented in 161 municipalities in 2008 – 41.6% in Luzon, 14.9% in Visayas, and 43.5% in Mindanao. 2009CCT was implemented in 277 municipalities – 36.5% in Luzon, 22.4% in Visayas, and 41.1% in Mindanao. February 2009 Start of application for the Project on Nurses Assigned in Rural Service by the DOLE, DOH, and the Professional Regulation Commission, Board of Nursing (PRC-BON). The Project involved the training/deployment of unemployed registered nurses in the 1,000 poorest cities/municipalities of the country. III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

71. 71 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Some negative events between 2006 and 2009: PeriodEvent 2006-2009Rice price crisis: Price of ordinary rice increased by 44.2%, from PhP 21.28/kg in 2006 to PhP 30.69 in 2009 2008Global financial crisis June 2009Start of El Niño July 2009Start of the increase in alert level of Mayon Volcano III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

72. 72 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Some negative events between 2006 and 2009: Some typhoons/calamities in 2009 Typhoon/CalamityPeriod CoveredEstimated Cost of Damage Area(s) affected 1. PepengSept. 24 - 27, 2009 PhP 27.195 billionNCR, CAR, I, II, III, IV-A, IV-B, V, IX 2. OndoySept. 30 – Oct. 11, 2009 PhP 11.121 billionNCR, CAR, I, II, III, IV-A, IV-B, V, IX 3. RamilOct. 20-26, 2009PhP 87 million in Cagayan Valley CAR, Regions I and II III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

73. 73 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD In NCR, the average per capita income of the bottom 10% of families rose faster than prices of food and all items! III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

74. 74 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Biggest reductions in the number of poor population from 2006 to 2009 were observed in NCR, Regions IV-B and I. On the other hand, largest increases were observed in Regions VI, VIII and IV- A, with 264,651, 263,315, and 166,550 increases in the poor population, respectively. III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Magnitude of Poor Population -146,477 -141,498 -107,790 263,315 166,550 264,651 VVIIVIVIIIXIV-AIIIARMMIXXIIXI Caraga IIV-BIINCRCAR CCT (08-09) 17 (114) 39 (132) 23 (133) 46 (143) 34 (93) 7 (142) 35 (130) 49 (118) 14 (72) 16 (50) 19 (49) 52 (73) 19 (125) 27 (73) 5 (93) 8 (17) 28 (77)

75. 75 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Fishermen posted the highest poverty incidence among the nine basic sectors in the Philippines in 2009 at 41.4%, the same level in 2006, followed by farmers and children at poverty incidences of 36.7% from 37.2% in 2006 and 35.1% from 32.7% in 2006, respectively. Sector 200320062009 Increase/ Decrease Poverty Incidence 90% Confidence Interval Povert y Incide nce 90% Confidence Interval Povert y Incide nce 90% Confidenc e Interval 2003 - 2006 200 6 - 200 9 Low er Limit Upp er Limit Lower Limit Upp er Limit Low er Limit Upp er Lim it Philippines 5/ 24.924.125.826.425.527.326.525.627.31.50.1 Fishermen35.032.437.641.438.644.241.438.943.96.40.0 Farmers37.035.538.437.235.738.736.735.438.10.2 (0.5 ) Children32.731.533.934.833.63635.134.136.22.10.3 Self-employed and Unpaid Family Workers 4/ 28.026.829.329.428.230.729.027.930.21.4 (0.4 ) Women24.0232525.124.126.125.124.3261.10.0 Youth19.018.119.920.819.921.721.820.922.61.81.0 Migrant and Formal Sector 14.613.815.415.714.916.516.71617.41.11.0 Senior Citizens15.114.215.916.215.317.215.815.116.51.2 (0.5 ) Individuals residing in urban areas 11.110.311.912.511.713.312.812.013.51.40.3

76. 76 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 10 of 17 regions had decreasing subsistence incidence between 2006 and 2009, only 5 regions between 2003 and 2006! Region Subsistence incidence among familiesIncrease/Decrease 20032006200903-0606-09 PHILIPPINES8.28.77.9 0.4(0.8) Region VII16.017.113.21.1(3.8) ARMM7.311.68.54.3(3.1) Region V18.015.712.9(2.2)(2.9) Region I5.87.15.51.2(1.6) Region XI12.312.111.0(0.2)(1.1) CAR5.88.37.62.5(0.7) Region X16.116.315.60.2(0.6) Region IV-A2.42.82.40.3(0.3) NCR0.30.70.40.3(0.3) Region II4.14.34.10.3(0.2) Region VI9.17.9 (1.1)0.9 Region III2.33.7 1.41.0 Region XII10.610.811.30.21.7 Region IX25.117.918.6(7.1)1.7 Region VIII11.113.514.42.42.1 Caraga16.616.919.70.32.4 Region IV-B11.12.810.5(8.3)3.0 III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL

77. 77 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 8 of 17 regions had decreasing poverty incidence between 2006 and 2009, only 5 regions between 2003 and 2006! Region Poverty incidence among familiesIncrease/Decrease 20032006200903-0606-09 PHILIPPINES20.021.120.9 Region IV-B29.834.3 27.64.5(6.7) Region VII32.133.5 30.21.4(3.2) Region I17.820.4 17.82.6(2.6) CAR16.118.6 17.12.4(1.5) Region II15.215.5 14.50.3(1.1) NCR2.13.4 2.61.3(0.8) Region XI25.426.2 25.60.9(0.6) Region V38.036.1 36.0(1.9)(0.1) Region III9.412.0 2.60.1 Region X32.432.7 32.80.2 Region IV-A9.29.4 10.30.10.9 Region XII27.227.1 28.1(0.1)1.0 ARMM25.036.5 38.111.41.7 Region VI23.522.1 23.8(1.4)1.7 Region VIII30.231.1 33.21.02.1 Region IX40.534.2 36.6(6.3)2.4 Caraga37.636.9 39.8(0.7)3.0 II. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL

78. 78 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Magnitude of Food Poor Families -39,043 14,476 VIIVXVIIIIXVIXICaragaXIIIIIIV-B IV-A IARMMIICARNCR CCT (08-09) 17 (132) 39 (114) 34 (93) 46 (143) 49 (72) 23 (133) 14 (49) 52 (73) 16 (50) 35 (130) 27 (73) 7 (142) 19 (125) 19 (118) 5 (93) 28 (77) 8 (17) -21,409 -19,541 17,582 9,783 Biggest reductions in the number of food poor families from 2006 to 2009 were observed in Regions VII, V and IV-B. On the other hand, largest increases were observed in Caraga, Regions VIII and XII with 17,582, 14,476 and 9,783 increase in food poor families, respectively. B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Magnitude of Food Poor Families

79. 79 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Biggest reductions in the number of poor families from 2006 to 2009 were observed in Regions IV- B, VII and NCR. On the other hand, largest increases were observed in Regions VI, IV-A and VIII, with 42,867, 37,349 and 33,808 increase in poor families, respectively. III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Magnitude of Poor Families -24,229 -17,567 -16,423 42,867 37,349 33,808 VIIVVIVIIIXIV-AIIIIXXIXIIARMM Caraga IIV-BIINCRCAR CCT (08-09) 17 (132) 39 (114) 23 (133) 46 (143) 34 (93) 7 (142) 35 (130) 49 (72) 14 (49) 16 (50) 19 (118) 52 (73) 19 (125) 27 (73) 5 (93) 8 (17) 28 (77)

80. 80 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics -159,599 61,626 -184,231 -123,381 123,931 45,176 Biggest reductions in the number of food poor population from 2006 to 2009 were observed in Regions VII, V and IV-B. B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Magnitude of Food Poor Population VIIVXVIIIVIIXXICaragaXIIIII IV-A IV-BIARMMIICARNCR CCT (08-09) 17 (132) 39 (114) 34 (93) 46 (143) 23 (133) 49 (72) 14 (49) 52 (73) 16 (50) 35 (130) 7 (142) 27 (73) 19 (125) 19 (118) 5 (93) 28 (77) 8 (17)

81. 81 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Magnitude of Poor Families Negros Oriental, Tawi-Tawi and Pangasinan had the biggest reduction among poor families from 2006 to 2009! III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics -13,996 -21,199 -14,978 PangasinanNegros Oriental Misamis Oriental PalawanOriental Mindoro AntiqueOccidental Mindoro 2 nd DistrictZambalesTawi-Tawi CCT (08-09)7 (48) 10 (25) 4 (25) 14 (23) 6 (15) 5 (18) 9 (11) 2 (5) 2 (13) 1 (11)

82. 82 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD B. REGIONAL/PROVINCIAL: Magnitude of Poor Population Sulu, Lanao del Sur, and Iloilo were the provinces that have largest increases in the number of poor families from 2006-2009! III. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics 19,972 24,945 18,957 Negros Occidental Nueva Ecija IloiloSouth Cotabato Lanao del Norte SuluMisamis Occidental Lanao del Sur RizalPampanga CCT (08-09)8 (31) 11 (32) 3 (43) 2 (11) 15 (22) 6 (19) 4 (17) 4 (40) 0 (14) 2 (21)

83. 83 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Proportion of poor families declined from 21.1 in 2006 to 20.9 in 2009, consistent with the declining trend in underemployment rate and unemployment rate, which went down from 22.6 to 19.1 and 8.0 to 7.5, respectively from 2006 to 2009! IV. Some Policy/Program Implications -0.2 A. Poverty and Unemployment/Underemployment: Need for quality employment

84. 84 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Poverty Incidence Among Families by Employment Status of the Household Head: 2003 and 2006 Poverty incidence has been consistently higher among families whose household head is employed. Employment is not sufficient, quality of employment matters! Employment Status20032006 a Employed21.824.2 Unemployed15.017.8 Not in the Labor Force8.311.7 a/ The 2006 poverty estimates on unemployment is based on the new official definition of unemployment, which was approved through NSCB Resolution No. 15 Series of 2004. Source: Special computations made by the NSCB Technical Staff using the official poverty statistics of the NSCB and the result of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) of the National Statistics Office (NSO). Note: Poverty estimates were only generated for 2003 and 2006 as the 2009 FIES datafile provided by the NSO to the NSCB contains very limited variables (i.e., 13 variables). IV. Some Policy/Program Implications A. Poverty and Unemployment/Underemployment: Need for quality employment

85. 85 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 1.9 1.8 4.9 5.4 4.7 5.0 Inflation for education 2003-2006: 22.3% Inflation for all items 2003-2006: 21.2% Source: Special computations made by the NSCB Technical Staff using the official poverty statistics of the NSCB and the result of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) of the National Statistics Office (NSO). Note: Poverty estimates were only generated for 2003 and 2006 as the 2009 FIES datafile provided by the NSO to the NSCB contains very limited variables (i.e., 13 variables). Share of EDUCATION expenditure to the total basic expenditure: 0.50.3(0.1) Among poor families, share very slightly decreased between 2003 and 2006: MDG 2 on education has low probability of achieving the target! Are the poor not prioritizing/spending on/gaining education since: 1) education-related expenditures are too expensive for the poor; 2) poor families need children to work and do not send them to school? Will the CCT make a difference? Among poor families, share very slightly decreased between 2003 and 2006: MDG 2 on education has low probability of achieving the target! Are the poor not prioritizing/spending on/gaining education since: 1) education-related expenditures are too expensive for the poor; 2) poor families need children to work and do not send them to school? Will the CCT make a difference?

86. 86 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD ProvincePoverty Incidence Cohort Survival Rate Bulacan4.893.0 Pampanga6.788.3 1st District, NCR3.886.3 Laguna5.986.1 Bataan7.479.2 2nd District, NCR2.474.3 Nueva Vizcaya6.773.4 Cavite4.572.6 Benguet4.071.4 Rizal6.570.8 Ilocos Norte9.267.6 3rd District, NCR3.860.8 4th District, NCR1.660.5 Batanes0.058.6 In general, provinces in the least poor cluster have higher primary cohort survival rates than provinces in the bottom poor cluster! Despite being in the bottom poor cluster, six provinces registered primary cohort survival rates greater than 65%: Lanao del Norte, Eastern Samar, Surigao del Norte, Masbate, Camarines Sur, and Agusan del Sur! Poverty Incidence and Primary Cohort Survival Rate Bottom Poor Cluster, 2009 IV. Some Policy/Program Implications: Poverty & Education ProvincePoverty Incidence Cohort Survival Rate Lanao del Norte39.076.7 Eastern Samar45.868.8 Surigao Del Norte47.967.0 Masbate42.566.3 Camarines Sur38.766.2 Agusan del Sur51.266.0 Northern Samar41.759.2 Sulu39.359.1 Zamboanga del Norte 52.957.6 Maguindanao44.657.5 Bohol41.055.8 Romblon43.053.6 Saranggani40.753.1 Zamboanga Sibugay43.247.9 Davao Oriental42.530.3 Least Poor Cluster, 2009

87. 87 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD ProvincePoverty Incidence Completion Rate Bulacan4.893.0 Pampanga6.788.5 Laguna5.987.6 1st District, NCR3.885.9 Bataan7.478.5 2nd District, NCR2.473.8 Nueva Vizcaya6.772.8 Cavite4.572.3 Benguet4.071.1 Rizal6.570.5 Ilocos Norte9.267.0 3rd District, NCR3.860.0 4th District, NCR1.659.8 Batanes0.058.5 ProvincePoverty Incidence Completion Rate Lanao del Norte39.074.3 Eastern Samar45.868.7 Camarines Sur38.766.3 Surigao Del Norte47.965.8 Masbate42.565.7 Agusan del Sur51.264.8 Northern Samar41.758.4 Zamboanga del Norte52.957.2 Sulu39.357.2 Maguindanao44.656.2 Bohol41.054.7 Saranggani40.752.1 Zamboanga Sibugay43.246.1 Romblon43.046.0 Davao Oriental42.529.4 Bottom Poor Cluster, 2009 Least Poor Cluster, 2009 In general, provinces in the least poor cluster have higher primary completion rates than provinces in the bottom poor cluster! Despite being in the bottom poor cluster, five provinces registered primary completion rates greater than 65%: Lanao del Norte, Eastern Samar, Camarines Sur, Surigao del Norte, and Masbate! Poverty Incidence and Primary Completion Rate IV. Some Policy/Program Implications: Poverty & Education

88. 88 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Share of HOUSING expenditure to the total basic expenditure: 10.6 10.4 19.3 18.9 18.5 18.2 Inflation for housing 2003-2006: 12.7% Inflation for all items 2003-2006: 21.2% (0.2) (0.4) (0.3) Poor vs. nonpoor: Poor families spend relatively less on housing than the nonpoor but overall inflation is higher than for housing Poor vs. nonpoor: Poor families spend relatively less on housing than the nonpoor but overall inflation is higher than for housing 2003 vs. 2006: In general, the share went down from 2003 to 2006 among poor and non-poor families. 2003 vs. 2006: In general, the share went down from 2003 to 2006 among poor and non-poor families. Source: Special computations made by the NSCB Technical Staff using the official poverty statistics of the NSCB and the result of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) of the National Statistics Office (NSO). Note: Poverty estimates were only generated for 2003 and 2006 as the 2009 FIES datafile provided by the NSO to the NSCB contains very limited variables (i.e., 13 variables). IV. Some Policy/Program Implications: Poverty & Prices

89. 89 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Share of HOUSING expenditure to the total basic expenditure: 10.6 10.4 19.3 18.9 18.5 18.2 2003 – 2006 inflation for: All items:21.2% Housing: 12.7% Food: 21.4% (0.2) (0.4) (0.3) Poor vs. nonpoor: Poor families spend relatively less on housing than nonpoor families Poor vs. nonpoor: Poor families spend relatively less on housing than nonpoor families 2003 vs. 2006: In general, the share went down from 2003 to 2006 among poor and non-poor families. 2003 vs. 2006: In general, the share went down from 2003 to 2006 among poor and non-poor families. Source: Special computations made by the NSCB Technical Staff using the official poverty statistics of the NSCB and the result of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) of the National Statistics Office (NSO). Note: Poverty estimates were only generated for 2003 and 2006 as the 2009 FIES datafile provided by the NSO to the NSCB contains very limited variables (i.e., 13 variables). Between 2003 and 2006, inflation for food is higher than for all items/housing: Housing < All Items < Food The Poor suffered more from the increase in prices Between 2003 and 2006, inflation for food is higher than for all items/housing: Housing < All Items < Food The Poor suffered more from the increase in prices III. Some Policy/Program Implications

90. 90 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Family SizeMonthly Income Shortfall (Based on Income Gap) Monthly CCT Contribution 1361 2721 3*1,082800 4*1,4431,100 5*1,8031,400 Note: 1) 4Ps provides conditional cash grants to beneficiaries with: a) PhP 500.00/month per household for health and nutrition expenses b)PhP 300/month per child for educational expenses 2) Assume that all cash grant beneficiaries complied in the given conditions a) Pregnant women must avail of pre- and post-natal care and be attended during childbirth by a trained health professional: b) Parents must attend family development sessions; c) 0-5 year old children must receive regular preventive health check-ups and vaccines and 6-14 yr. Old children must receive deworming pills twice a year; d) 3-14 yr old children must attend day acre or pre-school/elementary/highschool classes at least 85% of the time IV. Some Policy/Program Implications G. Poverty and the CCT: CCT support is not enough!

91. 91 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Among the regions, 4 regions have high probability, 6 have medium and 7 regions have low probability of achieving the target by 2015. Starting 2010, ARMM needs to reduce poverty incidence among population annually by 5.86 percentage points to achieve the MDG target by 2015! Source: National Statistical Coordination Board RegionTarget poverty incidence among population by 2015 1991 Baseline 200320062009Target annual percentage point decrease between 2010-2015 NCR3.87.60.03 CAR18.737.30.71 Region I17.334.61.0 Region II15.330.60.58 Region III10.921.80.73 Region IV-A12.424.80.25 Region IV-B21.943.82.19 Region V27.354.62.97 Region VI21.142.11.69 Region VII21.242.42.39 Region VIII22.645.13.14 Region IX17.935.84.20 Region X22.645.32.83 Region XI19.739.31.94 Region XII25.250.41.75 ARMM10.721.55.86 Caraga22.545.04.22 IV. Some Policy/Program Implications - Poverty and the MDGs

92. 92 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD IV. Some Policy/Program Implications SOME THREATS: The poor are vulnerable to: 1.Price increases of: Food Oil 2.Effect of earthquake/tsunami in Japan 3.La Niña phenomenon 4.Threat to earthquake/other natural calamities/climate change in the Philippines with the poor at a greater risk to: Landslide One meter rise in sea level

93. 93 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Challenges OFWs who may have to come back (e.g., from the Middle East, Japan, or from other destinations) Must build the necessary social and economic infrastructure to accommodate and absorb them back in our society. Includes creating local jobs, providing the needed social services and tapping emerging markets like China and India. IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

94. 94 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD III. Some Policy/Program Implications Commodity Group CPI Inc/Dec CPI weights 200920102011 1/ 09-1010-1109-11 All Items 160.0166.1171.2 3.83.17.0 100.0 Food 162.4167.4173.0 3.13.36.5 46.6 Rice 171.6173.5175.3 1.11.02.2 9.4 Fuel (Oil) 211.5239.7264.7 13.310.525.2 2.4 Transportation (and Communication) 184.5194.4205.6 5.35.811.5 7.5 Note: 1/ CPI 2011 - January to March only Source: National Statistics Office While CPI for all items increased only by 7.0% between 2009 and 2011, prices of FUEL increased by 25.2%! During the same period, prices of transportation and communication increased by 11.5%! These are captured in the CPI for all items but their share to CPI (based on consumption from the FIES) are only 2.4% for fuel and 7.5% for transportation! QUESTION IS DID INCOME INCREASE FAST ENOUGH TO COPE WITH THE INCREASES OF PRICES BETWEEN 2009-2011?

95. 95 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD IV. Some Policy/Program Implications AMONG MINIMUM WAGE EARNERS While prices of fuel and transportation increased by 25.2% and 11.5%, respectively, between 2009 and 2010, incomes of minimum wage earners did not increase as fast! Highest income increase observed during this period is in Region XI with only 7.9%. On the other hand, incomes of minimum wage earners in Region VIII did not increase at all between the two-year period! Region Minimum Wage (Non-Agriculture)Inc/Dec 20092010201109-1010-1109-11 NCR382404 5.80 CAR260 27204.6 Region I240 24803.3 Region II235 24504.3 Region III302 31604.6 Region IV-A320 33705.3 Region IV-B252264 4.80 Region V239247 3.30 Region VI250265 6.00 Region VII267285 6.70 Region VIII238 0.00 Region IX240255 6.30 Region X256269 5.10 Region XI265286 7.90 Region XII245255 4.10 Caraga233243 4.30 ARMM210222 5.70 Source: NWPC website

96. 96 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD III. Some Policy/Program Implications AMONG GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES PeriodEvent July 2009Increase in the salaries of government employees with the implementation of the 1 st of four parts of the Salary Standardization Law III (SSL III) July 20102 nd of four parts of SSL III; To date, same rate is still being implemented. Average increase between 2009-2011 = 14.6% (Note: Due to time and data constraints, this was computed as a simple average of the 09-11 increase of all Salary Grades, Step I.) While salaries of government employees increased between 2009-2011, on the average, by 14.6%, we are in danger of being poor if salary increases are not sustained/updated to cope with the ongoing oil/food price increases!

97. 97 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Greater collaboration between the DSWD and NSCB on the following: Maximization of the wealth of information on poverty indicators from the NHTSPR, which could be utilized by the Philippine Statistical System, to provide a more holistic picture of the poverty situation in the country. DSWD can consider the food threshold as possible reference to compute for standard per capita costs of food requirements in DSWD (day care/children) centers but food threshold must be recomputed for children. (Note: As pointed out by a DSWD representative during the NSCB presentation to the DSWD Technical Staff on the 2009 Poverty Statistics last 8 March 2011.) The Cabinet Cluster on Human Development chaired by Sec. Soliman of DSWD, in its meeting last 17 March 2011 created the Technical Working Group on Poverty Reduction Statistics (TWG-PRS) chaired and coordinated by the NSCB. The TWG-PRS aims to harmonize and standardize existing statistical frameworks/indicator systems on poverty reduction, towards a common understanding and appreciation of poverty statistics in the country. Challenges IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

98. 98 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 4.Allow statistical offices to hire and increase number of statistical positions in government! Statistical agencies should be treated differently from other government agencies! 5.Implement a true rationalization plan! (NSCB is being required to reduce its 224 positions down to 149 but Demand for Statistics is rising exponentially!) NSCB should be given resources to expand its human resource base and establish its Regional Divisions in all regions of the country for more balanced statistical development. (NSCB is only present in 9 out of 17 regions, despite annual requests to DBM to be present in the other 8 regions.) TO AID THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM IN RESPONDING TO THESE MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES: IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

99. 99 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD H. Poverty and the Basic Sectors Poverty Incidence among Basic Sectors: 2003 and 2006 Poorest sectors in 2003 and 2006: Fishermen (41.4%), farmers (37.2%) and children (34.8%) ! All sectors posted increases in poverty incidence between the period 2003 and 2006! Poorest sectors in 2003 and 2006: Fishermen (41.4%), farmers (37.2%) and children (34.8%) ! All sectors posted increases in poverty incidence between the period 2003 and 2006! Source: National Statistical Coordination Board Note: 1. Poverty estimates were generated based on the refinements in the official poverty estimation methodology, which was approved on by the NSCB Executive Board on 1 February 2011. 2. 2009 poverty statistics for the basic sectors will be available 2 months after the provision of the merged 2009 FIES-LFS data file from NSO. To date, the NSO has not yet provided the said data file to the NSCB. Magnitude of Poor among Basic Sectors: 2003 and 2006 41.4% 37.2% 34.8% Largest number of poor population in 2003 and 2006, by sector: Children (12.3 million), women (10.7 million), and population living in urban areas (5.3 million)! Largest number of poor population in 2003 and 2006, by sector: Children (12.3 million), women (10.7 million), and population living in urban areas (5.3 million)!

100. 100 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Magnitude of Poor Fishermen: 2003 and 2006 Source: National Statistical Coordination Board Note: 1. Poverty estimates are revised based on the refinements in the official poverty estimation methodology, which was approved on by the NSCB Executive Board on 1 February 2011. 2. 2009 poverty statistics for the basic sectors will be available 2 months after the provision of the FIES-LFS data file from NSO. To date, the NSO has not yet provided the FIES-LFS data file. 3. Poverty incidence estimate for fishermen in CAR was excluded due to the very low level of precision. Highest poverty incidence: Caraga in 2003 and 2006 Caraga: 56.0% in 2003 and 56.5% in 2006 Largest magnitude of poor fishermen: Region VII in 2003 ARMM in 2006 Poverty Incidence among FISHERMEN by Region: 2003 and 2006

101. 101 2012 MCPI Annual Conference JOEncarnacion/ 26 July 2012 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Children, women, and individuals residing in urban areas accounted for the largest number of poor population in the country at 12.4 million in 2009 from 12.3 million in 2006, 11.2 million in 2009 from 10.7 million in 2006 and 5.7 million in 2009 from 5.3 million in 2006, respectively. Sector 200320062009 Increase/ Decrease Magnitud e of Poor 90% Confidence Interval Magnitude of Poor 90% Confidence Interval Magnitude of Poor 90% Confidence Interval 2003 - 2006 2006 - 2009 Lower Limit Upper Limit Lower Limit Upper Limit Lower Limit Upper Limit Philippines 19,796,95419,110,45520,483,45322,173,19021,435,61322,964,38723,142,48122,363,30723,836,693 2,376, 236 969,291 Children 11,363,85011,228,46911,499,23012,272,81912,126,24112,419,39812,414,81112,286,44812,543,174 908,6 96 141,992 Women 9,605,0379,509,1349,700,94010,691,07810,584,30310,797,85311,169,74511,075,81211,263,677 1,086, 041 478,667 Individuals residing in urban areas 4,429,4244,394,4004,464,4485,310,5315,267,0255,354,0375,709,1705,664,6605,753,680 881,1 07 398,639 Youth 4,280,1974,242,0714,318,3234,850,6074,805,8324,895,3825,367,3085,323,3145,411,302 570,4 10 516,701 Self- employed and Unpaid Family Workers 3,566,5863,522,0463,611,1264,115,6324,064,7344,166,5304,186,1944,139,5654,232,823 549,0 46 70,562 Migrant and Formal Sector 2,283,7732,265,9402,301,6062,599,3362,578,8802,619,7923,118,7013,095,8683,141,534 315,5 63 519,365 Farmers 1,768,2491,742,3631,794,1351,773,4841,747,3541,799,6141,685,1481,662,4091,707,8875,235-88,336 Senior Citizens 793,233786,342800,1241,035,0891,025,5831,044,5951,181,1211,172,6581,189,584 241,8 56 146,032 Fishermen 355,815346,524365,107400,214389,019411,409346,345337,765354,924 44,39 8 -53,869