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Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu, Nepal Land use and water Resources June 29-30, 2006 June 29-30, 2006 By Dr. Pervaiz Amir.

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Presentation on theme: "Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu, Nepal Land use and water Resources June 29-30, 2006 June 29-30, 2006 By Dr. Pervaiz Amir."— Presentation transcript:

1 Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu, Nepal Land use and water Resources June 29-30, 2006 June 29-30, 2006 By Dr. Pervaiz Amir

2 Coverage of this presentation 1.Land Use/Land Cover Change as Driver for Water related Stresses (extreme events) 2. Some Brief Findings of APN Funded Activities in two Selected SHU Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas

3 Studies/Sources Land Use, Historical Perspectives focus on Indo-Gangetic Plains. Editors Y.P Abrol; Satpal Sangwan and M K Tiwari Allied Publishers. New Delhi. 2000 Land Use, Historical Perspectives focus on Indo-Gangetic Plains. Editors Y.P Abrol; Satpal Sangwan and M K Tiwari Allied Publishers. New Delhi. 2000 Socio-economic aspects of drought in Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas Hydrological Units of Pakistan. Science and Culture. Vol 71 No7-8 July-August, 2005 the Indian Science News Association. New Delhi. Socio-economic aspects of drought in Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas Hydrological Units of Pakistan. Science and Culture. Vol 71 No7-8 July-August, 2005 the Indian Science News Association. New Delhi. Climate Change and Water resources in South Asia- Proceedings of Year end Workshop Kathmandu, 7-9 January, 2003 (APN) Climate Change and Water resources in South Asia- Proceedings of Year end Workshop Kathmandu, 7-9 January, 2003 (APN) Current Issues in Water Sector Current Issues in Water Sector (Pakistan Water CAS-World Bank)- Pakistan’s Water Economy Running Dry (Pakistan Water CAS-World Bank)- Pakistan’s Water Economy Running Dry In India: India’s Water Economy Bracing for Turbulent Future In India: India’s Water Economy Bracing for Turbulent Future

4 OBJECTIVES-APN Project Analyze recent climate variability and extreme events, and impacts on regional water resources Assess impacts of projected CC & variability and associated extreme events, and socio-economic changes, on water resources Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to CC; identify key risks to each sub-region and prioritize adaptation responses Evaluate efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of regional water resources Provide inputs to relevant national and regional long-term development strategies

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8 Agro Ecological Zones: Main features of the agro-ecological zones of Pakistan Zone Physiography and climate Soils and land use Indus Delta lands along sea) Arid tropical marine; annual rainfall 5-75 mm Clayey soils in shallow basins while silty in (Coastal nearly flat areas; rice, sugar cane, banana, and pulses are the main crops Southern Irrigated plain (Punjab + Upper Sindh) Arid sub-tropical continental; annual rainfall 45-55 mm. Calcareous silty, sandy loams and loams; cotton, wheat, mustard, sugarcane and berseem are the major crops. Sandy deserts (Cholistan etc.) Typical arid; annual rainfall 300-350 mm Moderately calcareous sandy soils; mainly used for grazing. Northern Irrigated pain 9upper Punjab) Semiarid; mean monthly summer rainfall >200 mm and >45 mm in winter. Eastern part consists of calcareous silt loams, and southern part mainly calcareous loams; wheat and millet are the main crops.

9 Wet Mountains (Northern areas) Semiarid; humid; mean monthly rainfall 236 mm in summer and 116 mm in winter Slightly to non-calcareous silt loams and silty calys; maize, wheat, olive and natural coniferous forests are main crops. Northern Dry Mountains Undifferentiated, very cold, snow fall common; 25-75 mm and in summer 10-20 mm. Soils deep clayey in valleys and shallow on slopes, non-calcareous to acidic; main land use in grazing. Western dry Mountains Arid to semiarid: mean monthly rainfall up to 95 mm n summer and 30 mm in water Mostly bare sloping rocks, in valleys loamy soils; main land use is grazing and wheat with flood water, fruit include apple, peaches, plum, apricot and grapes. Dry western PlateauArid tropical; mean monthly rainfall 36 mm in summer and 3 mm in winter Soils in plains deep and calcareous silt loams; xerophytic vegetation, mainly grazing, vegetable and wheat with spring or kareze water at places. Sulaiman PiedmontArid & hot, subtropical continental; mean monthly winter railfall 13 & 21-38 mm in summer Loams on gently sloping areas while clayey away, strongly calcareous; torrent watered and millet are main crops.

10 LAND UTILIZATION STATISTICS (Million HA) Year/Pr ovince Geogra phical area Total area reported col. (4 to 7) Forest area Not available for Cultivation Cultur able waste Cultivat ed area Col. (8+9) Curr ent fallo w Net area sown Area sown more than once Total cropped area Col. (9+10_ 1234567891011 2001-02 Punjab Sindh NWFP Baloch 20.63 14.09 10.17 34.72 17.52 14.09 8.34 19.38 0.51 0.84 1.32 1.13 2.95 6.12 3.91 11.33 1.63 1.27 1.22 4.83 12.43 5.86 1.89 2.09 1.40 3.43 0.51 1.26 11.03 2.43 1.38 0.83 5.07 0.73 0.63 0.02 16.10 3.16 2.01 0.85 Total79.6159.333.8024.318.9522.276.6015.676.4522.12 2002-03 Punjab Sindh NWFP Baloch 20.63 14.09 10.17 34.72 17.50 14.09 8.35 19.51 0.51 0.84 1.33 1.36 2.88 6.12 3.92 11.33 1.58 1.34 1.20 4.83 12.53 5.79 1.90 1.99 1.48 3.52 0.51 1.10 11.05 2.27 1.39 0.89 4.91 0.79 0.53 0.02 15.96 3.06 1.92 0.91 Total79.6159.454.0424.259.8522.216.6115.606.2521.85

11 2003-04 Punjab (R) Sindh NWFP Baloch (R) 20.63 14.09 10.17 34.72 17.50 14.09 8.34 19.51 0.51 0.84 1.33 1.36 2.88 6.13 3.86 11.33 1.58 1.41 1.26 4.83 12.53 5.71 1.89 1.99 1.48 2.95 0.52 1.10 11.05 2.76 1.37 0.89 (E) 5.36 0.88 0.61 0.02 16.41 3.64 1.98 0.91 Total79.6159.444.049.08 22.126.0516.076.8722.94 E = Estimated R = Repeated of last year. Source:- Provincial Agriculture Departments. GEOGRAPHICAL AEA is that area which has been surveyed and calculated by the Survey of Pakistan. TOTAL AEA REPORTED is the total physical area of the village/deh, tehsil or district etc. FOREST AERA is the area of any land classed or administered as forest under any legal. Enactment dealing with forests. Any cultivated area which may exist within such forest should be exclude (and shown under heading cultivated area).

12 Land Use/Land Cover As Driver of Change Land Use f { Resource Endowments, Land Q, History, Pop, climate (T and P)-changes, skills and tradition, Type of Agriculture, Infrastructure, Water Q and Availability +Investments,profitability Development Goals, T }

13 Virtual Water Content Agriculture viewed as virtual water outputs that result in net transfer of water when the produce is sold Thus a water deficient country when it exports wheat, rice, meat, beef and cheese, is essentially using a large input of water that it transfers to water scarce nations In Pakistan wheat produced in Punjab and Sindh is being exported to neighboring provinces, NWFP and Balouchistan- A what if Crisis in the Making- Wheat failure in India or China and these countries enter in as big buyers in the international arena! A what if Crisis in the Making- Wheat failure in India or China and these countries enter in as big buyers in the international arena!

14 Virtual Water Content of a Few Selected Products in M 3 /Ton Potatoes160 Maize450 Milk900 Meat1200 Soybean2300 Rice2700 Poultry2800 Eggs4700 Cheese5300 Beef16000

15 Water Requirements Equivalent of Crop Production Crop Water Requiremnets per hectare (m 3 ) Yield Per Hectare (Kg) Water Requirements (m3) for Producing 1 kg Wheat405023881.70 Rice1026020135.10 Sugarcane11810473000.25 Cotton650062210.45 Fodder4660227190.21

16 SELECTED SUB HYDROLOGICAL UNITS

17 Survey Objectives To provide data on key aspects of Livelihood, Drought, Changes in magnitude, Rainfall pattern, Agriculture, Livestock, and certain coping mechanisms. To report on farmers perceptions about Drought in the areas of Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas.

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23 Source: APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas

24 Any other damages experienced 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Description Percentage Cattle Poultry Grazing ground Vegetable Garden Fruit Orchard

25 Source: APN Survey, June 2003-Bahawalpur Note: Due to multiple responses, sample size exceeds 113 Effectiveness of water user organizations to motivate the farmers to solve the problems related to water use? (n=113) FrequencyPercent Cumulative Percent No Response 1166 Borrow money 539 Work in city 14817 Migrate to other areas 6321 Sale livestock 1046081 Sale of belonging 3219100 Total 172100 FrequencyPercent Cumulative Percent No effectiveness 1109797 No Response 33100 Total113100 Source: APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas Adjustments adopted to cope with the last drought? (n=113)

26 Findings of APN Survey Findings of APN Survey Land size small, dependence on desert and periphery on livestock. Carrying capacity becoming problem during drought Minimal govt or NGO support. Food main expense. Income low and uncertain Main reason for drought rainfall. High shadow price of water during drought Little application of advanced technology, sprinkler, centrifuge- Egypt, Israel Droughts damage crops, livestock, pastures, gardens and distort livelihood Major difference in crop and livestock yields. Statistically significant Decision making framework compels step-wise adoption. Need drought and salt tolerant varieties

27 Water scarcity, well digging now at 250 feet. We must conserve total water, price it and regulate its use No more a free good. Considerable political turmoil. Droughts fueling controversy. Linear application inappropriate Drought forces an Exit strategy where options exist. Food security not problem but purchasing power lacking Water user association, extension in-effective. Livestock extension rated good. Policy interventions needed. People Cope with livestock sale, equipment, gold and belongings. Long tem impacts on human lives, asset inventory, and sustainability of systems Droughts affect people physiologically, depress them and changes their perspective on life

28 CC Findings 92% of the country’s area is arid to semi-arid – thus the climate change will have negative impact on availability of water because of: Extremes are going to be severe i.e. droughts Extremes are going to be severe i.e. droughts Reduced rainfall in the arid and semi-arid monsoonal regions Reduced rainfall in the arid and semi-arid monsoonal regions Reduced snowfall in the valleys of the arid winter dominant rainfall regions of Balochistan Reduced snowfall in the valleys of the arid winter dominant rainfall regions of Balochistan

29 Contribution by Glaciers River System Contribution (% of Total) Contribution of NAs to Indus River 72 Contribution of NAs to Indus Basin System 34 Contribution of Glaciers- and Snow-melt 29 Contribution of Glaciers 20 Shahid 2004

30 Sum up land Use and Water Change in water availability is evident – impacts of variability or climate change – persistent drought is a phenomena of severity of extremes Increasing trend in Water Demand – competing water users – people, agriculture, nature Physical limitations with the surface water resources Groundwater Resource Limitations -Quantity and Quality – exploiting the marginal quality zone

31 Meeting the Water Stress Challenge in Agriculture Water conservation (raised bed furrow technology) Efficiency options (sprinkler, trickle, drip etc.) New Storages for Regulation Supply and Demand Management Addressing water Rights an entitlements Managing the Management Nexus

32 Macro Implication of Water Saving with Adoption of Resource Conservation Technologies Description Cropping Zone/Crops Rice-WheatCottonRice Area (Mac) 5.227.75.22 Water Requirements (mm) 4056501022 Resource Conservation Technology Zero tillage drill Bed and Furrow Direct seeding Water Saved by RCTs (%) 2040-4525 Water Saved by RCTs (mm) 81260409 Net Water saving (MAF) 1.396.577.00 Source: OFWM, 1999-2000 and Dhillon and Sidhu, 2004

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39 Watercourse Improvement Improved Farm Layout Laser Land Leveling Improved Irrigation Application Methods Bed And Furrow Irrigation Rain-Gun Irrigation System For Rouni Efficient Irrigation Systems For Orchards Drip/Trickle Irrigation Improved Cropping Pattern Groundwater Quality Zonation Skimming Wells Use Of Low Quality Groundwater For Agriculture Reuse Of Wastewater Water Quality Monitoring Irrigation Scheduling Resource Conservation Technology Technologies For Irrigated Areas

40 Small/ Mini Dams Dug Wells Pressurized Irrigation Systems Soil And Water Conservation Practices Contouring Strip Cropping Terracing Tillage Practices Soil And Water Conservation Structures Technologies For Barani Areas

41 Rainwater harvesting Reducing evaporation Evaporation from open water surfaces Evaporation from soil surfaces Afforestation/drought resistant plants Saline agriculture Technologies For Desert areas

42 THANK YOU


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