1. Similarity searching modell with Excel Zoltán Varga PhD student SZIU

2. Previous (Classical) model for sales forecast 0. Historical sales data 1. Periodical simple average 2. Smooth step 1 by moving average 3. Smooth step 2 by exponential cleaning 4. Estimation 5. Forecasted values 6. Interpretation to the actual data

3. Similarity analysis (COCO – Component-based Object Comparison for Objectivity) 0. Raw OAM (Object-Attribute Matrix 1. Ranked OAM 2. Definition of stair cases (range of results) 3. Definition of difference of neighboring stairs (restrictions) 4. Definition of object function 5. Definition of model error for minimizing 6. Optimizing

4. The story that lead to the birth of similarity searching model EMC 2014 Katalin Óhegyi and stock market dataset Philosophy of similarity by COCO

5. Similarity searching model 0. Times series 1. t n /t n+1; t n+1 /t n+2… ratio 2. Generation of non-overlapping categories 3. Generation of sequences (5 category points at most) 4. Searching for the most similar pair (m) of the last known sequence (n), and repeated search for the sequence m+1 with its first element is stored 5. First elements of the sequences m+1, 2,3…z are stored until z 6. Evaluating to the actual data by category accuracy and directional stability

6. Test on Crude Futures Open 184 weeks used to forecast the next 25 19 categories Category difference0123456789 25 cases4684101001 100,00%16%24%32%16%4%0%4%0% 4% Directional accuracy:18 Directional stability:72%

7. Test on Crude Futures Open - Benchmark 184 weeks used to find the most common

8. Test on Crude Futures Open – Benchmark results 184 weeks used to forecast the next 25 19 categories Category difference0123456789 25 cases7654020100 100,00%28%24%20%16%0%8%0%4%0% Directional accuracy:14 Directional stability:56%

9. Test on Crude Futures with Classical OpenHighLowClose Directional stability41,67%50,00%54,17%45,83% Correlation0,830,850,900,85

10. Test on sales time series of one product 100 weeks used to forecast the next 50 7 categories Category difference0123456 50 cases241742120 100,00%48%34%8%4%2%4%0% Directional accuracy:3 Directional stability:66%

11. Test on on sales time series of one product - Benchmark 100 weeks used to find the most common

12. Test on sales time series of one product – Benchmark results 100 weeks used to forecast the next 50 7 categories Category difference0123456 50 cases232610000 100,00%46%52%2%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Directional accuracy:30 Directional stability:60%

13. Summary of tests Crude Futures directional stability: –Similarity Searching Model: 72% –Benchmark: 68% Product sales time series directional stability: –Similarity Searching Model: 66% –Benchmark: 60%

14. Thank you for your attention!