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1 Shareholder Information Meeting Radisson Penn Harris Hotel & Convention Center, Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, Tuesday, December 1 st, 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Shareholder Information Meeting Radisson Penn Harris Hotel & Convention Center, Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, Tuesday, December 1 st, 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Shareholder Information Meeting Radisson Penn Harris Hotel & Convention Center, Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, Tuesday, December 1 st, 2009

2 2 This document contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the US Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, regarding the belief or current expectations of the Group, AIB’s Directors and other members of its senior management about the Group’s financial condition, results of operations and business of the Group and certain of the plans and objectives of the Group, including statements relating to possible future write-downs or impairments. In particular, certain statements with regard to management objectives, trends in results of operations, margins, risk management, competition and the impact of changes in Financial Reporting Standards are forward-looking in nature. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate only to historical or current facts. Forward looking statements sometimes use words such as ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘would, ‘will, ‘aim’, ‘anticipate’, ‘target’, ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘goal’, ‘believe’, or other words of similar meaning. Examples of forward-looking statements include, among others, statements regarding the Group’s future financial position, income growth, business strategy, projected costs, capital position, estimates of capital expenditures, and plans and objectives for future operations. Because such statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of AIB and are difficult to predict, that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results of developments expressed or implied from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied include, but are not limited to, changes in economic conditions globally and in the regions in which the Group conducts its business, changes in fiscal or other policies adopted by various governments and regulatory authorities, the effects of competition in the geographic and business areas in which the Group conducts its operations, the ability to increase market share and control expenses, the effects of changes in taxation or accounting standards and practices, acquisitions, future exchange and interest rates, the risk that the Group may not participate in NAMA or that the NAMA Scheme may turn out to be unsuccessful in achieving its goals, the lack of control over the nature, number and valuation of the assets to be transferred to NAMA and the success of the Group in managing these events. The Group cautions that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Investors and others should carefully consider the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events when making an investment decision based on any forward-looking statement. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events discussed in this Report may not occur. The forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this document. Except as required by the Irish Financial Regulator, the Irish Stock Exchange, the UK Financial Services Authority, the London Stock Exchange or applicable law, AIB does not have any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward- looking statement, whether as a result of new information, further events or otherwise. AIB expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to publicly release any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement contained in this document or incorporated by reference to reflect any change in AIB’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. visit www.aibgroup.com/investorrelations Forward looking statements The following commentary is on a continuing operations basis. The growth percentages (excl. EPS) are shown on an underlying basis, adjusted for the impact of exchange rate movements on the translation of foreign locations’ profit and excluding interest rate hedge volatility.

3 Alan Kelly General Manager Group Finance

4 4 Agenda Introduction and welcome Key developments and performance review Shareholders’ questions

5 5 Major events for AIB; September 2008 – December 2009 2008 September Introduction of Irish Government Guarantee December Irish Government initial announcement on recapitalisation of Irish banks 2009 January Nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank; Market concerns re Irish sovereign February AIB & Irish Government announce a €3.5bn recapitalisation by way of Core Tier 1 preference shares March Nil final dividend for 2008 recommended April Irish Government announces National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) AIB announces retirement of CEO, CFO and appointment of new Chairman June Successful capital exchange offer, boosting equity capital by c. €1.1bn September Minister for Finance outlines NAMA terms AIB announces intention to raise additional capital over 12-18 months timeframe November Restructuring plan submitted to European Commission Enactment of NAMA legislation Senior management changes at AIB

6 6 Tough economic conditions Ireland Good initial progress in improving competitiveness, exports outperforming Difficult budget decisions must continue to be made Overdependence on construction rapidly diminishing Unemployment continues to increase; expected to average c.13.6% in 2010 Ireland-7.7-2.5 UK-4.4 1.0 Poland 0.51.5 Eurozone -4.0 1.0 US-2.61.9 World -1.1 3.1 Source: AIB ERU Forecasts % volume2009 f2010 f GDP

7 7 Major changes have materially affected AIB Lower demand for loans Increased cost of deposits / funding Liquidity severely curtailed Significant increase in forecast 2009 bad debts charge Mar 09€2.9bn May 09€4.3bn Aug 09€4.3bn+ Nov 09€5.3bn NAMA transfer - €24bn identified by Minister for Finance; discount yet to be finalised Potential impact of European Commission restructuring plan, not yet known Adjusted basic EPS H1 2009 (164.4c) ADR US$5.20 (on Nov 26 th 2009)

8 8 Operating performance €1.1bn* underlying pre-provision profit in H1 2009; €2bn* forecast for full year 2009 Performance driven by Diverse multi-national sources of income underlining importance of international diversification Continued downward trend in costs Loan and deposit volumes Weak loan demand, 2009 gross customer loans to be broadly in line with 2008 Deposit stability continues; full year balance expected to increase over half year level in 2009 Credit current account volumes stabilised since Q1 Net interest margin NIM attrition of c. 25bps expected in 2009 from 221bps in 2008 Driven by cost of customer deposits, partly offset by improving returns on loans and higher treasury margins Other income Non- interest income expected to reduce by over 10% in 2009, mainly attributed to lower fees from banking activity, investment banking, asset management and cost of the government guarantee partly offset by some bond disposals Costs Cost reductions to continue, targeting further decrease of 5% for 2009 Staff numbers reduced by 1,500 in 9 months to September * excludes capital exchange offer

9 9 Criticised loans - definitions Watch Credit exhibiting weakness but with the expectation that existing debt can be fully repaid from normal cashflow Vulnerable Credit where repayment is in jeopardy from normal cash flow and may be dependent on other sources Impaired A loan is impaired if there is objective evidence of impairment as a result of one or more events that occurred after the initial recognition of the assets (a “loss event”) and that loss event (or events) has an impact such that the present value of future cash flows is less than the current carrying value of the financial asset or group of assets i.e. requires a provision to be raised through the profit and loss

10 10 Credit deterioration Criticised loans increased by €17.9bn to June 09. AIB Bank RoI accounts for c. 75% of this increase, with AIB Bank UK 15%, Capital Markets 5% and CEE 5%. H2 increase to be significantly less Weakening trends evident across portfolios / sectors Property & construction sector 72% of H1 increase 20082009 Total criticised by value €m

11 11 Specific% ofIBNR% of Total% of ProvisionAvgProvisionAvgProvisionAvg P&LAdvsP&LAdvs(P&L)Advs €m%€m%€m% AIB Bank RoI1,7944.651170.301,9114.95 Capital Markets1711.31300.232011.54 AIB Bank UK1881.7900.001881.79 CEE581.38150.36731.74 Group Total2,2113.331620.252,3733.58 Credit charges – H1 2009

12 12 SpecificIBNR% ofTotal% of Impaired% ofProvisionProvisionEarningProvisionImpaired LoansAdvs(B/S)Cover(B/S)Advs(B/S)Loans €m%€m%€m%€m% AIB Bank RoI8,51610.92,439291,0181.463,45741 Capital Markets6672.628242500.2033250 AIB Bank UK1,2205.6342281660.8150842 CEE4014.716742841.0525163 Group Total10,8048.13,230301,3181.074,54842 Balance sheet provisions – June 2009

13 13 €mROIUKCMPoland Group Commercial Investment10,8893,5625,1991,24520,895 Residential Investment2,4071,317483364,243 Commercial Development6,1826853757047,946 Residential Development10,8773,15441359915,043 Contractors674334411401,189 Balances 31,0299,0526,5112,72449,316 Property & construction – sub sector profile June 2009 * * an element of management estimation has been applied in this sub-categorisation ** excludes €0.6bn in Housing Associations **

14 14 Asset quality update* Deterioration continues; pace slowing Bad debt charge heavily weighted to loans identified for potential transfer to NAMA and predominantly in the Republic of Ireland Some stabilisation in RoI “non-NAMA” loans; no material increase in provision requirement since H1 2009 International portfolios - impaired loans & bad debt charges higher than previous years reflecting more difficult conditions in all markets Prudent balance sheet provisions Provision charges expected to be lower in Capital Markets & CEE and broadly similar in UK in H2 2009 relative to H1 2009 * per Interim Management Statement

15 15 National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) – an overview Asset exchange programme, primarily RoI and UK property portfolios Quantum of loans to be transferred and asset values not yet finalised c. €17bn land & development and c. €7bn “associated” loans may transfer Transfers to be phased over 2010 Valuation on a bottom up, case by case basis Capital position and pre-provision operating profit will both be significantly influenced by NAMA outcome To be considered by shareholders at EGM on 23 rd December

16 16 Loans that may transfer to NAMA Landbank & DevelopmentAssociatedTotal €bn€bn€bn Republic of Ireland14.26.420.6 United Kingdom2.60.73.3 Rest of world0.2-0.2 17.017.124.1 Performing at 30 th June 2009c. 17.4 Impaired at 30 th June 2009c. 6.7 Forecast performing at 31 st December 2009c.13.6 Forecast impaired at 31 st December 2009c.10.5 Balance sheet provisions at 30 th June 2009c. 2.3 Forecast balance sheet provisions at 31 st December 2009c. 4.2

17 17 Capital position H1 2009 AIB Regulatory min. Capital ratios strengthened by €3.5bn Government investment and €1.1bn gain from the capital exchange offer Capital ratios above regulatory requirements NAMA effect to emerge over coming months Continuing to actively consider a range of potential sources of additional capital; firm resolve to strengthen capital position

18 18 Potential sources of capital Equity markets Strategic investment Asset sales / business disposals Government commitment to assist and support

19 19 AIB’s funding diversity - September 2009 Stable customer deposits – 50% Wholesale funding – 40% Capital – 10% Wholesale market liquidity has significantly improved Some pricing improvement; conditions remain more challenging than historic norms NAMA bonds will be a further significant boost to liquidity Recent raising of €1.75bn unsecured unguaranteed term funding

20 20 Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) EGM to be held on December 23 rd at 11:00 GMT in Dublin Proposals: To approve AIB’s participation in the NAMA Programme To permit AIB to convene certain shareholder meetings on 14 days notice Timetable: Dec 9th Mailing of proxy material to ADR holders begins Dec 18th Voting cut off date

21 21 AIB Bank Republic of Ireland Loss before tax (€1,522m) in H1 2009 driven by steep increase in bad debts Income pressure, particularly cost of deposits are key drivers of reduced operating profits Developing our franchise by supporting customers and the economy c. 42,000 credit facilities, €1.85bn extended to SMEs Jan – Oct 2009 8 out of 10 SME credit enquiries are approved (independent customer research) Opening 15 dedicated SME business centres nationwide Providing 1 in 3 of all mortgages, up from 1 in 6 a year ago Zero forced repossessions of owner occupied homes

22 22 Profit before tax  13% to €252m in H1 2009 due to increased bad debts (lower bad debt charge expected in H2 2009 vs H1 2009) High income growth combined with aggressive cost management Global Treasury; delivering strong profit growth Well chosen market positions, delivering continuing profits Improving margins in customer business; well placed to benefit in higher demand environment Corporate Banking; strong risk management Focus on de-leveraging balance sheet, margins improving Impaired loans spread across geographies / sectors Franchises well placed for recovery in corporate demand Investment Banking; lower customer activity Lower income from asset management and investment banking activities Costs reduced in low revenue environment Capital Markets

23 23 Loss before tax (£28m) in H1 2009 due to increased bad debts charge driven by property market downturn Strong management action in low income environment Intense focus on cost control Better loan prices; improving margins Higher deposit and funding costs Great Britain Profitable business banking franchise despite severe economic conditions Weak demand for credit; deposits stabilised (Q1 deposit outflow now stemmed) Increased provisions due to deterioration in property & construction with some contagion to other business sectors First Trust Bank (Northern Ireland) Increased provisions largely driven by property & construction sector and landbank lending in particular AIB Bank United Kingdom

24 24 Poland Franchise investment coincided with significant economic downturn; 514 branches include 145 added since H2 2007 Targeting small increase in loans in 2009 Higher margins in personal market Deposits stabilised Improving trends in asset management & brokerage Increased provisions across all sectors, particularly property and cash loans Strong liquidity, loan / deposit ratio 85%, Larger, well developed franchise set to outperform in next Polish growth phase Remainder of CEE Division BACB: value impairment of €45m in H1 2009 AmCredit: continued deterioration in Baltic mortgage market Central & Eastern European (CEE) Division

25 25 M&T Strong outperformance continuing – M&T is one of only 3 peer banks to report a profit in every quarter of 2007, 2008 and 2009 Underlying EPS $.98c in Q3,  24% on Q2 Q3 core deposits  18% annualised (ex 2009 acquisitions) Net interest margin  to 3.61% in Q3 Improved fee income and strong residential mortgage banking revenues Provident Bankshares Corporation acquisition completed – accretive in Q2 Careful and conservative risk management Second highest coverage ratio among peers, while maintaining the lowest ratio of net charge-offs to average loans €200m impairment charge to AIB investment in H1 2009 * d iluted net operating earnings per share

26 26 Summary Material deterioration in AIB’s condition over past 18 months Our decisions accentuated a very challenging banking environment Irish State an important source of support NAMA and European Commission restructuring plan will alter the shape of AIB Further cost reductions required in low income environment Firm resolve to rebuild AIB’s business and shareholder value

27 Questions

28 28 Contacts +353-1-660 0311 +353-1-641 2075 Alan Kellyalan.j.kelly@aib.ie  +353-1-6412162 Rose O’Donovanrose.m.o’donovan@aib.ie  +353-1-6414191 Pat Clarkepatricia.m.clarke@aib.ie  +353-1-6412381 Maura Hodnettmaura.n.hodnett@aib.ie  +353-1-6413469 Our Group Investor Relations Department will be happy to facilitate your requests for any further information Visit our website www.aibgroup.com/investorrelations


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