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Media Commercialization and Authoritarian Rule in China Daniela Stockmann Department of Political Science Leiden University.

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Presentation on theme: "Media Commercialization and Authoritarian Rule in China Daniela Stockmann Department of Political Science Leiden University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Media Commercialization and Authoritarian Rule in China Daniela Stockmann Department of Political Science Leiden University

2 Media Marketization in Authoritarian States Deregulation Commercialization Partial Privatization Guang Niu/Getty Images

3 The Puzzle Why does media marketization contribute to political liberalization in some countries, but not in others? What is the role of the audience in explaining these outcomes? Media Marketization Regime StabilityPolitical Liberalization & Regime Instability

4 A. Theoretical Framework and Research Design

5 State-Society Relations under Authoritarianism Authoritarian rulers stay in power by means of: Repression (Friedrich and Brzezinski, 1965; Bellin, 2004) Exchange of economic benefits in return for political support (Ross, 2001; Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2004; Acemoglu and Robinson, 2005; Lust-Oskar, 2006)  Compliance not explained with regime support A.1. Theoretical Framework

6 The Dictator’s Dilemma (Wintrobe, 1998) 1.The use of repression makes citizens hesitant to state their true opinions 2.The dictator suspects opposition  Distribution of rents as a solution A.1. Theoretical Framework

7 Marketized Media as a Solution to the Dictator’s Dilemma 1.Marketized media provide information about citizen beliefs 2.Media marketization makes the state less reliant on coercive measures  Media become more credible  Marketized media are attractive propaganda instruments But: what happens, if market demands conflict with the official line? A.1. Theoretical Framework

8 Regime Type and Media Marketization Condition for media marketization to work in favor of authoritarian leaders: Institutions in charge of editorial control of news content Single-party regimes tend to have this institutional capacity  Regime type mitigates the effects of media marketization A.1. Theoretical Framework

9 Media as Instruments of Regime Stability A.2. Hypotheses In China and Other Single-Party Regimes:

10 A.3. Research Design Chongqing Foshan Shenyang Beijing Wuxi

11 Research Design Interviews Open-ended, semi-structured interviews with 46 media practitioners Content Analysis Computer-Aided Content Analysis of news reporting in Chongqing and Beijing Public Opinion Surveys Beijing Area Studies of Beijing Residents (BAS) Survey of Legal Mobilization conducted in Chongqing, Shenyang, Foshan, and Wuxi (LLM) Experiments Natural experiment of media management during the 2005 Anti-Japanese protests Experimental vignettes (among citizens in Beijing) Cross-country Comparison Collection of macro-level data on authoritarian states in Africa, East Central Europe, and the Middle East A.3. Research Design

12 Evaluations of Labor Law and Sentiment towards the United States 1.Both issues are open, but related to regime stability  Most-difficult test of counter-hypotheses 2.Issues differ in terms of the relationship between the official line of the state and audience demands  Observation of the relationship between institutions and market forces A.3. Research Design

13 Media as Instruments of Regime Stability A.2. Hypotheses In China and Other Single-Party Regimes:

14 B. Evidence from the 2005 Anti-Japanese Protests in Beijing

15 Media Management During Crisis Nationalism as a source of state legitimacy Nationalism poses pressures and constraints on foreign policy towards Japan (and the US)  Media as a tool to “massage” negative sentiment  Except during Crisis B.1. Background

16 Timeline Quasi-Experiment B.2. Empirical Example

17 Newspaper Types in Beijing Space for News Reporting Open Closed Degree of Media Marketization HighLow “Commercialized”“Semi-Official”“Official” B.2. Empirical Example

18 Treatment B.2. Empirical Example

19 Media Credibility Official papers are perceived as propaganda organs and mouthpieces of state units. Commercialized papers are perceived to publish “real news” from the perspective of “ordinary people.” B.2. Empirical Example

20 Newspaper Types in Beijing Space for News Reporting Open Closed Degree of Media Marketization HighLow “Commercialized”“Semi-Official”“Official” B.2. Empirical Example

21 Data Analysis Data: Beijing Area Studies, conducted in the spring of 2005 based on PPS random sampling (response rate: 56.1 %, n= 617) Statistical Models: 1. Media Selection Model DV: Newspaper Consumption (dummy variable) 2. Media Effects Model  Assumption: People were at least moderately attentive to news about Japan. DV: Feeling Thermometer toward Japan (continuous variable, 1-100) B.2. Empirical Example

22 Media Effects Controlling for national identity, exposure to alternative media sources, travel to Japan, education, generation, and gender. B.2. Empirical Example

23 Media Effects B.2. Empirical Example

24 Summary Despite marketization, newspaper content tends to be uniform. At the same time, marketization boosts the credibility of newspapers, thus promoting the ability of the state to influence public opinion.

25

26 Appendix Quasi-Experiment

27 Assumption of Quasi-Experiment

28 Official Paper Use (Raw Data)

29 Data Analysis Data: Beijing Area Studies, conducted in the spring of 2005 based on PPS random sampling (response rate: 56.1 %, n= 617) Statistical Models: 1. Media Selection Model DV: Newspaper Consumption (dummy variable) 2. Media Effects Model  Assumption: People were at least moderately attentive to news about Japan. DV: Feeling Thermometer toward Japan (continuous variable, 1-100) B.2. Empirical Example

30 Selection Effects B.3. Selection Effects Control variables are not displayed in the table.

31 Selection Effects B.3. Selection Effects

32 Selection Effects (Controls)

33 Media Effects (Controls)

34 Effects of Exposure to More Commercialized Papers as Reading Additional Papers and Press Restrictions Change

35 Effects of Reading up Ten Papers as Exposure to Commercialized Papers and Press Restrictions Change

36 Credibility

37 Media Labels and Branding Media branding refers to marketing strategies by media outlets to establish themselves as distinctive players in the media market. Advertising “We make a Paper that is close to YOU!” “The Paper that Responsibly talks about everything!” Corporate identities Special columns and famous reporters Design Overstepping of boundaries for news reporting (playing table tennis by the edge)

38 Beijing Readership Survey, 2002 (I)

39 Beijing Readership Survey, 2002 (II)

40 Experimental Vignettes: Official Frame According to (Beijing Evening News / Beijing Daily), Wang Village Colemin owed Deng Pingjun and others, a group of 20 people, wages of more than 30000 Yuan. Approaching the spring festival the migrant workers wanted to visit home and asked several times for their wages, but the cole mine refused due to lack of money. The migrants had no alternative but to go to Beijing city court, demanding to be compensated for their work. To the benefit of the workers, the court took their case very seriously, speeded up the process, and waived the application fee. Under the hard work of the judges the case was resolved through mediation. The migrants received partial compensation on the same day and they had enough money to travel home for new year’s. According to statistics, since my country’s labor law was passed in 1995 the number of accepted cases in the whole nation was 425726. these dispute’s rightful, timely, and proper application had advantages for protecting the legitimate rights of the large working population. The court guided and shaped the complicated labor relations during the reform process, as well as solved the problems arising during reform and development of enterprises. 据 ( 北京晚报 / 北京日报 ) ,王村煤矿欠 郑平均等 20 人劳动报酬 3 万多元。眼看 春节将至,民工们想回家过节,多次向 煤矿索要所欠工资,煤矿以无钱为由拒 绝给付,民工们万般无奈之下诉至北京 市门头沟法院,要求王村煤矿给付所欠 劳动报酬。 事关民工的切身利益,门头沟法院对 此案非常重视,迅速立案,并根据原告 的申请,缓收了案件受理费。在法官们 的努力下,此案得以调解结案,民工们 在结案当天便领到了部分劳动报酬,有 了回家过年的路费。 据统计,自 1995 年我国劳动法实施以 来,全国法院共受理各类劳动纠纷案件 425726 件。这些纠纷的合法、及时和 妥善处理,有力地保护了广大员工的合 法权益,各级法院依法引导和规范了改 革过程中纷繁复杂的新型劳动关系,及 时化解了企业改革和发展中出现的矛盾 和问题。 Original source: People’s Daily, 21 March, 2002. “ 为了员工的合法权益 : 人民法院积极处理劳动纠纷案件纪实

41 Experimental Vignettes: Commercialized Frame According to (Beijing Evening News / Beijing Daily), Liu Dingwei, Li Demin and Chen Qian belong to a group of 19 farmers in the city of Nancheng in Sizhou. Between July and December 2005 they worked at a construction site of TongXin Company in Chengdu. Throughout the process, the company outsourced to Mr. Zou. After arriving at the construction site, Mr. Zou asked Liu Dingwei and the other 18 to hurry up. Working hours and wages were decided by Mr. Zou. While working at the site Mr. Zou only gave these migrant workers a small sum to pay for living expenses. Each migrant’s wages was delayed to a different extent. In total wages in the amount of 26050 Yuan were not paid. Liu Dingwei and the others asked several times for their wages, but without any result although Mr. Zou said he would inquire about the reasons for the delay. In February the workers asked the provincial legal aid center for help. Together with two lawyers and staff they contacted TongXin Company and after positive coordination and communication eventually received a compensation of 13000 Yuan. 据 ( 北京晚报 / 北京日报 ) ,刘定伟、李 德敏、陈潜、李庆参等 19 人均系四川省 南充市嘉陵区的农民。 2005 年 7 月 22 日 至 12 月 1 日在成都某通信有限公司承建 的某网络优化网工地务工,该工程承包 方是成都某通信公司。在施工过程中, 该通信公司将上述工程承包给自然人邹 某,邹某接到工程后,遂请刘定伟等 19 人负责建设施工,工作时间及工资标准 由邹某决定,工作过程中邹某只给这些 农民工发过一些生活费,每个农民工均 不同程度地被拖欠工资,经统计这 19 名 农民工共被拖欠工资 26050 元。 刘定伟等人曾多次向何某、邹某追索 未果,于 2007 年 2 月 12 日到省法律援助 中心申请法律援助。工作站刘红、邓冰 二位律师及工作人员杜伟数次前往通信 公司,与其进行积极协调、沟通,最终 于日前达成协议,由通信公司支付劳动 报酬 23000 元。 Original source: Chengdu Evening News, 18 September 2007.” 免费为民工维权 律师不必白干了 ”

42 Experimental Vignettes (Gibson and Gows, 2003) Survey Question (asked in all conditions): Source: LLM, 2005. 您有没有听说过 《劳动法》 ? 总的看来,您认为《劳动法》的贯彻执行对劳动者权利的保护是非常、 比较、不太还是完全无效? “Have you heard about the labor law?” If yes, respondent was asked: “In general, is the implementation of the labor law very effective, somewhat effective, not so effective, or not at all effective in protecting workers’ rights?” Variable was coded one if respondent had heard about the labor law and thought it was somewhat or very effective, otherwise it was coded zero. 1 13 out of 138 participants had never heard about the labor law and were therefore not asked the second question. Among those 4 were sampled into the control group and 9 in treatment groups.

43 Experimental Vignettes: Results

44

45 Institutions

46 Institutional Restrictions Sponsoring Institutions State Publication and Press Agency Conglomeration Absence of Media Law Propaganda Department  Institutions establish boundaries for news reporting

47 Attitudes toward the United States

48 News Reporting about the United States Topics Positivity / Negativity B.2. News Content

49 News Reporting about the United States * Control variables are not displayed in the table.

50 News Reporting about the United States

51 Sensitivity of News Reporting about the United States

52 News Reporting Over Time: Tone

53 Tone Over Time (Table)

54 Data Analysis Data: Beijing Area Studies, conducted in the spring of 2005 based on PPS random sampling Statistical Model: Attitudes = Attention + AttentionSquared + Exposure + Attention*Exposure + AttentionSquared*Exposure + Controls + u DV: Feeling Thermometer toward the United States B.3. Media Effects

55 Media Effects: Theory (Exposure +) Attention + Susceptibility = Effect Attention Attitude Change Liberal Conservative B.3. Media Effects

56

57 Beijing Evening News B.3. Media Effects

58 People’s Daily B.3. Media Effects

59

60

61 Media Effects e More Paper: Medium Attention B.3. Media Effects

62 One More Paper: High Attention B.3. Media Effects

63 Official Papers

64 Views of the Labor Law

65 Labor Law and Labor Disputes Labor protests have been increasing in recent years Legal Reform: Building a Rule of Law - Increase its legitimacy - Channel worker grievances into legal institutions - Improve Implementation  “Use the law as a weapon!” ( 用法律武器 !) A.3. Issue Selection

66 Newspapers in Chongqing Open Space for News Reporting Closed Commercialized PapersOfficial Papers

67 The Official Line: Labor Law Protects Workers "The central government is very clear: Wen Jiabao said that migrant workers should get their salary on time. Those kind of problems are labor disputes. If the employer is from a private corporation, they should give salary on time; if the employer is from a state-owned enterprise, then he should even more do so." (Interview # 7)

68 News Reporting on Labor Law: Tone

69 News Reporting on Labor Law: Selection “… This year in May Lao Du happily took the labor compensation.” (People’s Daily, 2005) "Filing a lawsuit is too exhausting, I no longer believe in legal channels. Chinese people do not have human rights. Zhu Rongji has really sacrificed our generation, especially since the beginning of the reform period. Justice in China is not real." (Interview with Lao Du by Mary E. Gallagher, University of Michigan)  “Happy endings:” Articles do not address the problem of implementation

70 Media Effects: Theory (Exposure +) Attention + Susceptibility = Effect Attention Attitude Change Liberal Conservative B.3. Media Effects

71 Attentiveness and Views of the Labor Law (among media users) * Forthcoming in Comparative Political Studies, 2011

72 Media Effects of Official and Non-Official Papers on Views about the Labor Law * Parallel regression assumption holds; Control variables not displayed in the Table

73 Media Effects of Official and Non-Official Papers on Views about the Labor Law

74 Likelihood to Perceive the Law as Effective / Coefficient

75

76 Applicability to Other Media Types

77 Newspaper Use (Raw Data)

78 Newspaper Use

79 Newspapers and News Websites * Forthcoming in Susan Shirk, Changing Media, Changing China, 2010

80 Newspapers and News Websites * Forthcoming in Susan Shirk, Changing Media, Changing China, 2010

81 Media Sources, Attentiveness, and Views of the Labor Law (among frequent media users) * Forthcoming in Comparative Political Studies, 2011

82 Generalizability China

83 Regional Advertising Income in China

84 24 Chinese Provinces and Municipalities No data on dependent variable available for Jilin, Tianjin, Neimenggu,Sichuan, Xizang, Gansu, Qinghai, Hong Kong, Macao.

85 Media Marketization and Media Credibility in China

86 Generalizability: Single-Party States

87 37 Countries / 137 Cases Cases were included if coded as partly free or not free according to FH or as authoritarian according to Polity

88 OLS Regression Results of Media Marketization on Diversity of Information as Regime Type Changes

89 Partial Regression Plots

90 OLS Regression Results of Media Marketization on Media Credibility

91 Partial Regression Plot


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