1. Utility Theory & MDPs Tamara Berg CS 590-133 Artificial Intelligence Many slides throughout the course adapted from Svetlana Lazebnik, Dan Klein, Stuart Russell, Andrew Moore, Percy Liang, Luke Zettlemoyer

2. Announcements An edited version of HW2 was released on the class webpage today –Due date is extended to Feb 25 (but make sure to start before the exam!) As always, you can work in pairs and submit 1 written/coding solution (pairs don’t need to be the same as HW1)

3. Review from last class

5. A more abstract game tree Terminal utilities (for MAX) 322 3 A two-ply game

6. A more abstract game tree Minimax value of a node: the utility (for MAX) of being in the corresponding state, assuming perfect play on both sides Minimax strategy: Choose the move that gives the best worst-case payoff 322 3

7. Computing the minimax value of a node Minimax(node) =  Utility(node) if node is terminal  max action Minimax(Succ(node, action)) if player = MAX  min action Minimax(Succ(node, action)) if player = MIN 322 3

8. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree

9. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 33

10. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 33 22

11. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 33 22  14

12. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 33 22 55

13. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 3 22 2

14. Games of chance How to incorporate dice throwing into the game tree?

16. Games of chance

20. Why MEU?

26. Human Utilities How much do people value their lives? –How much would you pay to avoid a risk, e.g. Russian roulette with a million-barreled revolver (1 micromort)? –Driving in a car for 230 miles incurs a risk of 1 micromort.

27. Measuring Utilities Worst possible catastrophe Best possible prize

33. Stochastic, sequential environments (Chapter 17) Image credit: P. Abbeel and D. Klein Markov Decision Processes

34. Components: –States s, beginning with initial state s 0 –Actions a Each state s has actions A(s) available from it –Transition model P(s’ | s, a) Markov assumption: the probability of going to s’ from s depends only on s and a and not on any other past actions or states –Reward function R(s) Policy  (s): the action that an agent takes in any given state –The “solution” to an MDP

37. Overview First, we will look at how to “solve” MDPs, or find the optimal policy when the transition model and the reward function are known Second, we will consider reinforcement learning, where we don’t know the rules of the environment or the consequences of our actions

38. Game show A series of questions with increasing level of difficulty and increasing payoff Decision: at each step, take your earnings and quit, or go for the next question –If you answer wrong, you lose everything Q1Q2Q3Q4 Correct Incorrect: $0 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $100 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $1,100 Correct: $61,100 Incorrect: $0 Quit: $11,100 $100 question $1,000 question $10,000 question $50,000 question

39. Game show Consider $50,000 question –Probability of guessing correctly: 1/10 –Quit or go for the question? What is the expected payoff for continuing? 0.1 * 61,100 + 0.9 * 0 = 6,110 What is the optimal decision? Q1Q2Q3Q4 Correct Incorrect: $0 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $100 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $1,100 Correct: $61,100 Incorrect: $0 Quit: $11,100 $100 question $1,000 question $10,000 question $50,000 question 9/103/41/2 1/10

40. Game show What should we do in Q3? –Payoff for quitting: $1,100 –Payoff for continuing: 0.5 * $11,100 = $5,550 What about Q2? –$100 for quitting vs. $4,162 for continuing What about Q1? Q1Q2Q3Q4 Correct Incorrect: $0 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $100 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $1,100 Correct: $61,100 Incorrect: $0 Quit: $11,100 $100 question $1,000 question $10,000 question $50,000 question 9/103/41/2 1/10 U = $11,100U = $5,550U = $4,162U = $3,746

41. Grid world R(s) = -0.04 for every non-terminal state Transition model: 0.80.1 Source: P. Abbeel and D. Klein

42. Goal: Policy Source: P. Abbeel and D. Klein

43. Grid world R(s) = -0.04 for every non-terminal state Transition model:

44. Grid world Optimal policy when R(s) = -0.04 for every non-terminal state

45. Grid world Optimal policies for other values of R(s):

46. Solving MDPs MDP components: –States s –Actions a –Transition model P(s’ | s, a) –Reward function R(s) The solution: –Policy  (s): mapping from states to actions –How to find the optimal policy?

49. Maximizing expected utility The optimal policy should maximize the expected utility over all possible state sequences produced by following that policy: How to define the utility of a state sequence? –Sum of rewards of individual states –Problem: infinite state sequences

50. Utilities of state sequences Normally, we would define the utility of a state sequence as the sum of the rewards of the individual states Problem: infinite state sequences Solution: discount the individual state rewards by a factor  between 0 and 1: –Sooner rewards count more than later rewards –Makes sure the total utility stays bounded –Helps algorithms converge

51. Utilities of states Expected utility obtained by policy  starting in state s: The “true” utility of a state, is the expected sum of discounted rewards if the agent executes an optimal policy starting in state s

52. Finding the utilities of states U(s’) Max node Chance node P(s’ | s, a) What is the expected utility of taking action a in state s? How do we choose the optimal action? What is the recursive expression for U(s) in terms of the utilities of its successor states?

53. The Bellman equation Recursive relationship between the utilities of successive states: End up here with P(s’ | s, a) Get utility U(s’) (discounted by  ) Receive reward R(s) Choose optimal action a

54. The Bellman equation Recursive relationship between the utilities of successive states: For N states, we get N equations in N unknowns –Solving them solves the MDP –We can solve them algebraically –Two methods: value iteration and policy iteration

55. Method 1: Value iteration Start out with every U(s) = 0 Iterate until convergence –During the i th iteration, update the utility of each state according to this rule: In the limit of infinitely many iterations, guaranteed to find the correct utility values –In practice, don’t need an infinite number of iterations…

56. Value iteration What effect does the update have? Value iteration demo

58. Values vs Policy Basic idea: approximations get refined towards optimal values Policy may converge long before values do

59. Method 2: Policy iteration Start with some initial policy  0 and alternate between the following steps: –Policy evaluation: calculate U  i (s) for every state s –Policy improvement: calculate a new policy  i+1 based on the updated utilities

60. Policy evaluation Given a fixed policy , calculate U  (s) for every state s The Bellman equation for the optimal policy: –How does it need to change if our policy is fixed? –Can solve a linear system to get all the utilities! –Alternatively, can apply the following update:

63. Looking ahead

64. Reinforcement Learning Components: –States s, beginning with initial state s 0 –Actions a Each state s has actions A(s) available from it –Transition model P(s’ | s, a) –Reward function R(s) Policy  (s): the action that an agent takes in any given state –The “solution” New twist: don’t know Transition model or Reward function ahead of time! –Have to actually try actions and states out to learn