1. 1 Hans von Storch with material provided by Dennis Bray, Insa Meinke, Armineh Barkhordarian, Ralf Weisse, Beate Ratter, Katharina Phillip, Marcus Reckermann, Katja Woth and after discussions with Nico Stehr, Werner Krauß, Roger Pielke, Jerry Ravetz and Reiner Grundmann Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht 26 August 2014, København, ”Third Nordic International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation“ Ten years of implementing regional climate service – practice and lessons

2. 2 Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8 Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350 Different perceptions among scientists and the public

3. 3 Climate Change: Constructions Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. (“Constructed” does not mean "made up" or "invented“, but originating from an abstract context, which may be quite divorced from day-to-day reality. ) One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. Climate science is in a post-normal phase (where interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity) Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. In this state, science is not only done for reasons for curiosity but is asked for as support for preconceived value-based agendas. Postnormal science von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12, 741-747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.04.008

4. 4 The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“. The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated. Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”. The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth) advocates to the public has lead to fatigue. Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public trust. Climate science is taking place under post-normal conditions. Results may appear favourable or unfavourable to the climate scientist according to value preferences. The results constitute “ammunition” in a politically antagonistic dispute about “climate policy”, in which many scientists take side. The conflict about the political issue of the climate challenge is framed as if scientific results would be key to the success of “right” agenda. Knowledge market

5. 5 An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. Provision of stakeholders with relevant knowledge, information and data about regional climate change, its perspectives and probable causes Recognition and analysis of post-normal situation (politicization of issues), alternative knowledge claims, other drivers also changing environmental conditions Regional climate service

6. Regional Climate service comprises … 1.Building a dialogue with public and deciders 2.Dealing with the issues of - present change (consistency with scenarios) - perspectives (projections vs. predictions) - reality of societal knowledge about climate, climate change and climate impact - confusion because of differently used terminology - discrimination between legitimate scientific knowledge and politically motivated knowledge claims - post-normal conditioning of climate research 3.Provision of - robust (homogeneous) data - robust knowledge von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1 (2), 78

7. 7 IFK-Büro ‚Regionaler Klimawandel - Norddeutschland‘ (gegenwärtig an der GKSS im Aufbau) Das Büro ‚Regionaler Klimawandel‘ versteht sich Das Büro ‚Regionaler Klimawandel‘ versteht sich als eine Schnittstelle zwischen (Klima-) Wissenschaften und deren Anwendern z.B. Interessenvertretern. Zunächst erfragen wir den konkreten Beratungsbedarf, den es heute von Anwender-seite bezüglich Forschung zum regionalen Klimawandel Norddeutschlands gibt. Im Mittelpunkt der Arbeit des Büros stehen die Aufgaben Im Mittelpunkt der Arbeit des Büros stehen die Aufgaben: Vermittlung von wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnissen gegenwärtiger Klima- veränderungen sowie möglicher zukünftiger Veränderung des Küstenklimas von Norddeutschland; Entwicklung von Fragestellungen/Projekten aufgrund spezifischer Anfragen; Koordination und Durchführung von Arbeiten zur Beantwortung von regionalspezifischen Fragestellungen zum regionalen Klimawandel. Kontakt: Dr. Katja Woth, woth@gkss.de Beginning in 2004 Presentation 2006

8. 8 Determining social reality: the Hamburg survey since 2008 Every spring since 2008, the survey the company FORSA is tasked to telephone-survey about 500 people in Hamburg about their opinions about climate and climate change.  Climate change is considered a relevant issue – when directly asked if so. Otherwise it is not a topic among the 10 most significant issues.  Attention and concern varies, without systematic changes.  Storm surges are considered the most important risks in Hamburg. Ratter, Phillip, ongoing work; Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8

9. 9 The IPCC provides the following operational definitions : “A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities” and “A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, for example, at seasonal, interannual or long-term time scales.” But in practice these terms are mixed up. Bray and von Storch (2009) find that about 29% of climate scientists call “most probable developments” projections, while about 20% “possible developments” are labeled “predictions”. Determining social reality: the confusion about „Projections and predictions Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2009: 'Prediction' or 'Projection'? The nomenclature of climate science. Sci. Comm. 30, 534-543 % × 2

10. 10 Observed and projected temperature trends (1982-2011) The observed trends are beyond the range of natural variability. In DJA and MAM the change may be explained with GHG alone; in JJA and SON other causes are also needed. Observed CRU, EOBS (1982-2011) Consistency of recent regional change: Baltic Sea Region Projected GS signal, A1B scenario 10 simulations (ENSEMBLES) Red bars – natural variability – for detection of a non-natural cause Black bar – uncertainty of scenarios – for consistency of recent trend with cause described in scenarios

11. 11 Difference betwenn peak heights of storm surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg Main cause for recently elevated storm surges in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe – (coastal defense and shipping channel deepening) and less so because of changing storms or sea level. Consistency of recent local change: Storm surges in Hamburg von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44

12. 12  Raw data from 12 regional climate projections  Analyzed for Northern Germany and Pomeranian Bight  Interactive user interface Tools for regional climate servicing Klimaatlas / atlas klimatu http://www.ujscieodry-atlasklimatu.de http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de

13. 13 Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented - documentation of contested issues. for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008, BACC 2 in final editing phase + Hamburg region (published November 2010) + North Sea (in final phase) Full reports and condensed reports for general public. Tools for regional climate servicing climate con/dis-sensus reports Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 161-162

14. 14 GKSS in Geesthacht The CoastDat data set: Model generated data sets Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions. extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea Clients: Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change Tools for regional climate servicing homogeneous data sets of past and future change

15. 15 Wave Energy Flux [kW/m] Currents Power [W/m 2 ] Some applications of - Ship design - Navigational safety - Offshore wind - Interpretation of measurements - Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution - Ocean energy - Scenarios of storm surge conditions - Scenarios of future wave conditions

16. 16 Norddeutsches Klimabüro: activities and main clients

17. 17 Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes along with a tendency of politicizing science, and scientizing politics. Cultural science need to support climate science to deal with this challenge. The cultural and scientific constructions mix. The utility of scientific assertions in the political arena compete with their accuracy. Take home: knowledge about climate

18. 18 Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public and stakeholders – recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue. Climate service must take into account competing alternative knowledge claims. Climate Service should adhere to the principle of sustainability – building trust by avoiding overselling and being explicit in spelling out contested issues. Climate Service is more than providing data to mostly anonymous clients; direct interaction is in many cases needed. Also precise language should be used, no more “the science is settled”, no cavalier usage of the term “predictions”, when “projections” are meant. Regional climate service as mechanism for interacting with public and stakeholders

19. 19 For further reading von Storch, H., 2014: Klimaservice: Nachhaltig "Vorhersagen"? Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 31-32/2014, 41-46 von Storch, H., I. Meinke, N. Stehr, B. Ratter, W. Krauss, R.A. Pielke jr., R. Grundmann, M. Reckermann and R. Weisse, 2011: Regional Climate Services illustrated with experiences from Northern Europe. Journal for Environmental Law and Policy 1/2011, 1-15 Krauss, W., and H., von Storch, 2012: Post-Normal Practices Between Regional Climate Services and Local Knowledge. nature and culture 7: 213-230