1. Professor Nigel Brandon Shell Chair Sustainable Development in Energy EPSRC Energy Senior Research Fellow Executive Director Energy Futures Lab GO science Focal Point in Energy with China www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab Energy Drivers for Emissions

2. Introduction Energy Futures Lab Global Energy Drivers and Trends. Energy in the UK. Conclusions.

3. The Energy Futures Lab Established in 2005 to promote and stimulate multi-disciplinary research in energy at Imperial College. The EFL integrates across science, engineering, policy and business in the energy sector. Imperial College has a research budget of £30M pa for energy research, one third from industry. We have around 370 energy projects and 600 research staff and students undertaking energy research. Energy Technologies Fuel cells and hydrogen Bioenergy Solar Carbon capture and storage Oil and gas Transmission and distribution Transport Nuclear fission and fusion Combustion science and engineering Integrating Themes Energy systems engineering Policy Environmental studies Sustainability analysis Economics Energy in society www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab

4. Global Energy Drivers: 1 – Population Growth 2005 (million) 2030 (million) Canada 32 268 38 880 France 60 496 66 269 Germany 82 689 79 090 Italy 58 093 57 385 Japan 128 085 117 794 Russia 143 202 124 121 United Kingdom 59 668 65 895 United States 298 313 364 427 Brazil 186 405 233 884 China 1 315 844 1 438 394 India 1 103 3711 489 653 Mexico 107 029269 211 South Africa 47 432 52 958 World Total 6 464 750 8 246 665 World Population prospects World Population prospects: the 2006 revision, UN Dept. Economics and Social Affairs

5. Global Energy Drivers: 2 – Energy Security Rising Oil Prices. Shift in power from energy consumers to energy producers. Link between energy, water and food. 400 million people in India have no access to electricity.

6. Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC. UK Energy Trade and consumption

7. PROJECTED EUROPEAN GAS BALANCE Source: IEA

8. Global Energy Drivers: 3 – Urbanisation Population (billion) Source: ARUP

9. Growth in Global Energy Demand Source: RCEP (2000)

10. Global Energy Impact: CO 2 emissions Source: DTI (2002). Energy: its impact on the environment and society.

11. Global Energy Impact: 2 – Pollution Guangzhou, China, March 2008, ~15.00

12. In 2006, 283 out of 524 cities recorded acid rain: 198 cities at 25% 87 cities at 75% 6 cities at 100% Acid rain: pH <5.6 Air Quality Report for 2006 Air Quality Report for 2006, Ministry of Environmental Protection of P. R. China, http://www.sepa.gov.cn/ Acid Rain in China More than 80 percent of Chinese cities in a recent World Bank survey had sulfur dioxide or nitrogen dioxide emissions above the World Health Organization's threshold.

13. Energy consumption in China is accelerating The increase in China’s energy demand from 2002-05 equates to Japan’s annual energy use. 105 GW of (mostly) coal fired power plant were built in 2006 (total UK capacity ~80GW). China Statistical Yearbook 2007 China Statistical Yearbook 2007, National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/ Coal Oil Gas Hydro, nuclear wind, biomass

14. Incremental increase in energy demand and energy related CO 2 emissions 2000-2006. World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

15. China’s energy consumption per capita is low World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency toe per capita

16. Human development and energy use A. Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory rep. no. UCRL-ID- 140773 (October 2000). A. Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory rep. no. UCRL-ID-140773 (2000).

17. Car ownership in China was 24 cars for every 1000 citizens in 2006, and will increase to 40 cars for every 1000 citizens by 2010. By contrast, the US has 765 vehicles per 1000 (2002 data), while Europe has an average of about 300 vehicles per 1000. Green Car Congress Source: Green Car Congress, http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/05/percapita_car_o.html Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Centre 40% Transportation accounts for 40% of annual oil consumption now and is increasing sharply. China is already the third-largest car market in the world. The National Development and Reform Commission predicted that 55 million vehicles will be running on China’s roads by 2010. This number will increase to 370 million by 2030. Oil Demand Domestic production Rising Transport Demand in China

18. Global energy demand continues to rise IEA World Energy Outlook

19. Major investment in new energy infrastructure $22 Trillion of investment in energy infrastructure is needed out to 2030 to meet demand. Cumulative Investment in Energy Infrastructure 2006-2030 World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

20. UK: Share of fuels contributing to primary energy supply Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

21. The size of the challenge: a potential scenario to reach 15% renewable energy by 2020 in the UK Source: BERR UK Renewable energy strategy consultation, June (2008).

22. UK: Energy consumption by sector Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

23. UK: Energy consumption by transport type Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

24. UK: Average new car CO 2 emissions and Car use per person Source: Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency; Department for Transport

25. Source: Derived from BREHOMES, taken from the Domestic Energy Fact File. Building Research Establishment UK: Domestic energy consumption

26. UK: Ownership of central heating Source: GfK Home Audit from the Domestic Energy Fact File, Building Research Establishment.

27. UK: Carbon dioxide emissions on an IPCC basis and measurements towards targets Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

28. UK: Sulphur dioxide emissions by sector Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

29. Examples of Energy Technology Development at Imperial College: Fuel Cells, Bioenergy and Solar Fuel Cell Programme –Basic materials and device research –CeresPower spun out in 2001; now with 70 employees and partnership with British Gas to create domestic fuel cell CHP –Units will reduce household CO 2 emissions by 20% Translated into a low CO 2, low energy technique to produce biofuel naturally. Bioenergy Programme Plant biology, microbiology, biotechnology and systems process engineering. Solar Programme Photosynthesis, photochemistry, organic and nano-materials, device physics. Targetting low cost organic solar cells - Tomorrows PV. A vision for direct solar production of hydrogen and other fuels – Artificial Leaf.

30. PLANET 2050 ALL- ELECTRIC BUILDINGS ELECTRIC MOBILITY Grantham Institute for Climate Change LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY BIOMASS BIOFUELS HYDROGEN ECONOMY CO 2 FROM THE AIR PLANET 2050 ELECTRIC FUTURES PLANET 2050 will explore how to deliver 80% cuts in net CO 2 emissions and beyond quickly and without excessive costs through exploiting advanced technology and an integrated system approach. LOW CARBON PRODUCTION Programme for Low And Negative Emission Technologies for 2050

31. Conclusions In the near term we need to rapidly deploy the technologies we have available today, both for energy demand reduction and for energy generation. But we will need to develop new technologies, behaviours and business models to meet our 2050 targets. We must explore a wide range of options – for example the large-scale use of low-carbon electricity could help achieve the 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050. But the scientific and engineering challenges associated with this are significant. To develop breakthrough technologies we need to support energy R&D&D – noting that public funding for energy research has more than halved globally in real terms since 1980. We need to understand how to manage the transition in our energy economy – at Imperial we will explore this through our new ‘Planet 2050’ programme. Many areas of the energy sector are short of critical skills – Universities have an important role to play in attracting, educating and retaining the very best young scientists and engineers to the energy sector.

32. Thank you n.brandon@imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab