2. Spatial Demography Spatial Demography Lectures I. Basic Principles and Measures of Demography II. Types and Patterns of Disease III. Infectious Diseases, Epidemics, and Spatial Diffusion Models IV. Spatial Population Dynamics V. World Population Problems and Prospects

3. Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics A. Demographic Accounting Equation (revisited) P(t+1)=P(t) +B(t,t+1) -D(t,t-1) {natural change} +I(t,t+1) -E(t,t+1) {net international migration} +IN(t,t1)-OUT(t,t+1) {net internal migration} Internal versus international migration Spatial focus of immigration Example: California

4. Spatial Demography -IV. Spatial Population Dynamics Historical Trends in California

5. Migration - Permanent relocation of residential place and activity space. Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

6. Miles from POB Year

7. Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics Miles from POB Year

8. Age profile of migration and the life course Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

9. Why is migration important? Increasing global mobility Integrative issue in geography Policy relevance - pursuit of happiness (survival) Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics Year

10. Migration typology Forced Reluctant Voluntary Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

12. Forced migration in Africa (circa 1994) International Migration Flows Africa (circa 1993) Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

13. Factors influencing the migration decision Economic Utility maximization Push (Origins) and Pull (Destinations) Spatial search, uncertainty, and hierarchical decision- making Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

14. Channelization Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

15. Gravity Model (macro-model of migration) Newton’s law of universal gravitation Spatial interaction Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

16. Ravenstein’s Migration Laws (1870-80s) Most migrants go only a short distance. Longer-distance migration favors big city destinations. Most migration proceeds step-by-step. Most migration is rural to urban. Each migration flow produces a counterflow. Most migrants are adults; families are less likely to make international moves. Most international migrants are young males. Spatial Demography - IV. Spatial Population Dynamics

17. Big Issues Population growth Food supply Health Status of women Migration Males Females Spatial Demography – V. Population Problems and Prospects Environmental consequences

18. How to diffuse the population bomb? Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

19. World Population Growth 177 M babies - 86 M deaths ~ 90,000,000 annually or 230,000 per day. Stabilize at 10 billion?? Millions versus billions Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

20. Population Reference Bureau examples: A 2.5 centimeter stack of U.S. paper currency contains 233 bills. If you had a million dollars in thousand-dollar bills, the stack would be 11 centimeters high. If you had a billion dollars in thousand-dollar bills, your pile of money would reach 109 meters (about the length of a football field). You had lived a million seconds when you were 11.6 day old. You won’t be a billion seconds old until you are 31.7 years of age. Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

21. Regional Variation in Growth Rates India 2.6 down to 1.9 Africa 2.4 up to 2.8 (contribution of Muslim societies) China declined to 1.0 Continuing rapid growth in Southeast Asia South America from 3.0 down to 1.7 Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

22. Regional Variation in Birth and Death Rates High birth rates: Africa & Southwest Asia Low birth rates: North America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, China Transitional birth rates: Latin America, High death rates: Africa & Southwest Asia Low death rates: Most of the developed world. Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

23. Historical Impetuses to Population Growth Agricultural revolution Industrial revolution Urbanization and sanitation Advances in medicine Conquest and colonization of new lands Developing countries Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

24. Historical Checks on Population Growth Epidemics and plagues (bubonic plague 1348-1350) – 1/4 population killed – 50% attrition in some towns – England lost 4M Famines – India and China 18th and 19th centuries – Irish potato famine Wars Natural decrease Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

25. Demographic Transition Stage I: high birth rates, high death rates Stage II: high birth rates, declining death rates Stage III: declining birth rates, low death rates Stage IV: low birth rates, low death rates Stage V: low rates with natural decrease Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A

26. Malthus & Exponential Growth Malthus (1798) Linear (food production) versus Geometric (population) Why was he wrong (short term)? Was he wrong (the future)? Neo-malthusians/demographic fatigue J-curve, S-curve, and homeostatic plateau Intervention and demographic momentum Spatial Demography - V. Population Problems and Prospects

27. How to diffuse the population bomb? Spatial Demography - II. Types and Patterns of Diseases, A