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General Body Meeting 02-15-12 1
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Welcome 2
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell News Updates 3
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Technology Sector 4
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Today’s Action Open - 514.26, Close – 497.67, -2.31% Went above 500 on 2/13 on strong earnings and better than expected iPhone sales High – 526.01 at noon before dropping in a market selloff (Nasdaq down -0.55% to 2915.83) At 497.58 in afterhours trading
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell For the Future iTV and iPad 3 expected this year CEO Tim Cook - “"From the first day [the iPad] shipped, we thought that the tablet market would become larger than the PC market, I feel that stronger today than I did then.“ App innovation, enterprise sales, smaller iPad in pipeline Barclays Capital analyst - "If Apple were to sell a TV, we continue to believe its margins and pricing could be industry leading given its vertical integration with content,“ Integrated television set, ahead of competition, could contribute $5.40 to EPS
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Two Minute Drill 7 Guest Lecturer: Topic: Ali Yazdi Short Squeeze
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Tata Motors Liquidation Pitch John Yoshida 8
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Tata Motors Overview India’s largest automobile company Part of Tata Group 3 rd largest bus manufacturer in the world 4 th largest truck manufacturer in the world 3 rd largest manufacturer in passenger cars
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Original Thesis Points & Proposal Current short-term risks outweighing long-term potential Current price level makes investment extremely attractive Short term play for correction Geographic and risk diversification for portfolio Proposal Buy $2000 position Revisit after 20% appreciation
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Stock Price Analysis (6-Month)
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Stock Price Analysis (Comparison)
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Q3 Earnings (2/14/2012) Revenue: +44% yoy Net income: +41% yoy China sales Jaguar-Land Rover sales
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Original DCF Summary EV/EBITDA Multiple Range: 7x – 8x WACC: 9% If anything, conservative $19.16 – 21.18 Share Px as of 9/21/11: 16.26
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Thought Process Our thesis only was for a short term play and it was fulfilled Massively outperformed competitors in market Fundamentally don’t see such value left in TTM Take profits now
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Proposal Sell Liquidate entire position and take profits of ~90% in appreciation Questions?
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Holding Short Sale Ticker (SHLD) Ali Yazdi Zachary Peskin Andrew Freiman Eric Hoffman Abhi Shah 17
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Basics of Retail Industry Retail firms sell “finished products” to consumers Second largest industry in the US $3.8 trillion in annual sales (not including food) Employs 12% of workers in US 90% of retail stores are single stores (i.e. “mom & pop” stores) World’s biggest retailer is WalMart with $350 billion in annual revenue 18
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Online vs. Stores Online retailers compete fiercely with traditional, store-based retailers Amazon.com Overstock.com Zappos.com Online stores can generally offer generic goods cheaper than physical stores Forrester Research: By 2014: e-commerce will be approx. 9% of all retail sales 19
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Generic v. Differentiated The specific goods the store sells is important Generic goods Goods with many perfect substitutes Vacuum cleaners Mops Sold by many retailers Low margin Differentiated Goods Few perfect substitutes iPad Organic supermarket Consumer seek out these stores High margin 20
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Retail Sales 21
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Retail Sales ETF: XRT Top Holdings WalMart Amazon CVS Costco Dividend Yield = 0.99% P/E ratio = 15.10 Price/Book = 2.02 22
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Retail Sales ETF: XRT 23
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Holdings Overview 24
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Holdings Corporation: Overview 4 th largest broadline retailer, headquartered in Hoffman Estates, IL. Operates through subsidiaries Sears, Roebuck and Co. and Kmart Corporation Sells literally everything Home appliances, tools, lawn and garden, consumer electronics, automotive repair and maintenance, health and beauty supplies, etc. Operates approx. 4000 stores in US and Canada
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Overview Cont. Merger of Kmart and Sears as Sears Holdings Corporation closed on March 24, 2005 Continue marketing products under previous labels Launched mygofer.com in 2009 Online grocery service allowing customers to get items from stores where and when they want them Owns SHC Realty One of largest corporate real estate organizations worldwide Buy or lease Sears and Kmart stores 26
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Products and Services 2011 Energy Star® energy retail partner of the year Key proprietary brands Kenmore, Craftsman, Diehard and Country Living collection Key apparel offerings Lands' End, Jaclyn Smith and Joe Boxer, as well as the Apostrophe and Covington brands Nation's largest provider of home services More than 11 million service calls made annually 27
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Products 28
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Competitive Landscape 29
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Major Competitors J.C. Penney Target Corporation Wal-Mart Lowe’s Ace Hardware Best Buy Kohl’s Home Depot Bed Bath & Beyond Amazon.com 30
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Profitability 2011SearsTargetWal-Mart Gross Profit Margin 26.62%30.99%25.04% Net Profit Margin (0.85%)4.31%3.77% Return on Equity (4.56%)19.79%25.01% Return on Assets (1.41%)6.39%8.69% Return on Invested Cap (2.96%)9.09%13.34% 31 2011 Net Profit Margin
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Valuation Ratios 2011SearsTargetWal-MartIndustry Median Price/Sales0.120.530.490.47 Price/Earnings(14.12)12.2013.9118.21 Price/Book0.672.313.161.76 Price/CF476.196.748.9410.07 EV/EBITDA11.874.876.47-- 32
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Financial & Operational Ratios 2011SearsTargetWal-MartIndustry Median Financial Ratios Current Ratio1.341.710.891.71 Quick Ratio0.240.780.210.58 Debt/Equity0.361.020.730.55 Operational Ratios Inventory Turnover 2.814.927.753.50 Asset Turnover1.661.482.301.45 Effective Tax19.35%35.64%32.52%-- 33
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Share Data & Growth 34 2011SearsTargetWal-MartIndustry Median Per Share Data Revenue$396.82$99.80$125.55$81.55 Dividend--$1.05$1.40$0.26 Cash Flow$0.10$7.77$6.93$3.82 12-Month Growth Figures Revenue(1.63%)3.11%3.34%2.82% Net Income(43.40%)17.36%14.33%45.94% EPS(40.20%)21.21%12.37%44.77% High revenue per share offset by consistent revenue decline Extremely low CF per share and tremendous decline in Net Income and EPS High revenue per share offset by consistent revenue decline Extremely low CF per share and tremendous decline in Net Income and EPS
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Financials 35
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Follow the Trend
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Follow the Trend
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Follow the Trend
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Valuation Traditional ways of valuing a company Discounted Cash Flow Sears has negative cash flows though… Multiple Comparisons Sears has negative multiples though… Bankruptcy Valuation Essentially look at all of Sears’ total assets and divide that by the number of shares 39
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Valuation Book Value per Share $71.92 40 When extrapolating this trend: Sears will depreciate to zero in Total Equity in 9.6 years
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Follow the Trend 41 Depreciating assets, as Sears’ fleet of stores depreciates in value from age and disrepair Commercial Real Estate Crisis continues to decrease storefront value Online shopping continues to grow at expense of big box stores Industry emphasis towards smaller stores means that no one will even buy Sears’ old storefronts
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Analyst Price Estimates
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Technicals 43
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Relative Strength Index (RSI) 44
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Bollinger Bands 45
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Volume 46
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Short Squeeze 47
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Share Performance Valid question to be asking: “If Sears is performing so badly, then why has the stock gained 60% in the past few months?” 48 Short Squeeze
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Short Squeeze Overview 49
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Short Squeeze Overview 50
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Proposal Short 50 shares of SHLD at: Market Price (approximately 52.5) Grand Total of ~$2600 Short term time frame (2-4 months) Watch reaction after earnings next Thursday 51
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Announcements 52
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Stock Competition Investopedia Trading Simulator $100,000 in Virtual Money Full Trading Platform (Short Selling, Options) Weekly Leaderboard Update Game Name: MICC Stock Competition Password: Cornell 53
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Stock Competition 54
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Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Brainteaser What’s the difference between the hour and minute hand when the clock strikes 4:20? 55
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