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General Body Meeting 02-15-12 1. Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Welcome 2.

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Presentation on theme: "General Body Meeting 02-15-12 1. Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Welcome 2."— Presentation transcript:

1 General Body Meeting 02-15-12 1

2 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Welcome 2

3 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell News Updates 3

4 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Technology Sector 4

5 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Today’s Action  Open - 514.26, Close – 497.67, -2.31%  Went above 500 on 2/13 on strong earnings and better than expected iPhone sales  High – 526.01 at noon before dropping in a market selloff (Nasdaq down -0.55% to 2915.83)  At 497.58 in afterhours trading

6 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell For the Future  iTV and iPad 3 expected this year  CEO Tim Cook - “"From the first day [the iPad] shipped, we thought that the tablet market would become larger than the PC market, I feel that stronger today than I did then.“  App innovation, enterprise sales, smaller iPad in pipeline  Barclays Capital analyst - "If Apple were to sell a TV, we continue to believe its margins and pricing could be industry leading given its vertical integration with content,“  Integrated television set, ahead of competition, could contribute $5.40 to EPS

7 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Two Minute Drill 7 Guest Lecturer: Topic: Ali Yazdi Short Squeeze

8 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Tata Motors Liquidation Pitch John Yoshida 8

9 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Tata Motors Overview  India’s largest automobile company  Part of Tata Group  3 rd largest bus manufacturer in the world  4 th largest truck manufacturer in the world  3 rd largest manufacturer in passenger cars

10 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Original Thesis Points & Proposal  Current short-term risks outweighing long-term potential  Current price level makes investment extremely attractive  Short term play for correction  Geographic and risk diversification for portfolio  Proposal  Buy $2000 position  Revisit after 20% appreciation

11 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Stock Price Analysis (6-Month)

12 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Stock Price Analysis (Comparison)

13 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Q3 Earnings (2/14/2012)  Revenue: +44% yoy  Net income: +41% yoy  China sales  Jaguar-Land Rover sales

14 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Original DCF Summary  EV/EBITDA Multiple Range: 7x – 8x  WACC: 9%  If anything, conservative $19.16 – 21.18  Share Px as of 9/21/11: 16.26

15 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Thought Process  Our thesis only was for a short term play and it was fulfilled  Massively outperformed competitors in market  Fundamentally don’t see such value left in TTM Take profits now

16 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Proposal  Sell  Liquidate entire position and take profits of ~90% in appreciation Questions?

17 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Holding Short Sale Ticker (SHLD) Ali Yazdi Zachary Peskin Andrew Freiman Eric Hoffman Abhi Shah 17

18 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Basics of Retail Industry  Retail firms sell “finished products” to consumers  Second largest industry in the US  $3.8 trillion in annual sales (not including food)  Employs 12% of workers in US  90% of retail stores are single stores (i.e. “mom & pop” stores)  World’s biggest retailer is WalMart with $350 billion in annual revenue 18

19 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Online vs. Stores  Online retailers compete fiercely with traditional, store-based retailers  Amazon.com  Overstock.com  Zappos.com  Online stores can generally offer generic goods cheaper than physical stores  Forrester Research:  By 2014: e-commerce will be approx. 9% of all retail sales 19

20 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Generic v. Differentiated  The specific goods the store sells is important  Generic goods  Goods with many perfect substitutes Vacuum cleaners Mops  Sold by many retailers  Low margin  Differentiated Goods  Few perfect substitutes iPad Organic supermarket  Consumer seek out these stores  High margin 20

21 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Retail Sales 21

22 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Retail Sales ETF: XRT  Top Holdings  WalMart  Amazon  CVS  Costco  Dividend Yield = 0.99%  P/E ratio = 15.10  Price/Book = 2.02 22

23 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Retail Sales ETF: XRT 23

24 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Holdings Overview 24

25 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Holdings Corporation: Overview  4 th largest broadline retailer, headquartered in Hoffman Estates, IL.  Operates through subsidiaries  Sears, Roebuck and Co. and Kmart Corporation  Sells literally everything  Home appliances, tools, lawn and garden, consumer electronics, automotive repair and maintenance, health and beauty supplies, etc.  Operates approx. 4000 stores in US and Canada

26 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Overview Cont.  Merger of Kmart and Sears as Sears Holdings Corporation closed on March 24, 2005  Continue marketing products under previous labels  Launched mygofer.com in 2009  Online grocery service allowing customers to get items from stores where and when they want them  Owns SHC Realty  One of largest corporate real estate organizations worldwide  Buy or lease Sears and Kmart stores 26

27 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Products and Services  2011 Energy Star® energy retail partner of the year  Key proprietary brands  Kenmore, Craftsman, Diehard and Country Living collection  Key apparel offerings  Lands' End, Jaclyn Smith and Joe Boxer, as well as the Apostrophe and Covington brands  Nation's largest provider of home services  More than 11 million service calls made annually 27

28 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Products 28

29 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Competitive Landscape 29

30 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Major Competitors  J.C. Penney  Target Corporation  Wal-Mart  Lowe’s  Ace Hardware  Best Buy  Kohl’s  Home Depot  Bed Bath & Beyond  Amazon.com 30

31 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Profitability 2011SearsTargetWal-Mart Gross Profit Margin 26.62%30.99%25.04% Net Profit Margin (0.85%)4.31%3.77% Return on Equity (4.56%)19.79%25.01% Return on Assets (1.41%)6.39%8.69% Return on Invested Cap (2.96%)9.09%13.34% 31 2011 Net Profit Margin

32 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Valuation Ratios 2011SearsTargetWal-MartIndustry Median Price/Sales0.120.530.490.47 Price/Earnings(14.12)12.2013.9118.21 Price/Book0.672.313.161.76 Price/CF476.196.748.9410.07 EV/EBITDA11.874.876.47-- 32

33 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Financial & Operational Ratios 2011SearsTargetWal-MartIndustry Median Financial Ratios Current Ratio1.341.710.891.71 Quick Ratio0.240.780.210.58 Debt/Equity0.361.020.730.55 Operational Ratios Inventory Turnover 2.814.927.753.50 Asset Turnover1.661.482.301.45 Effective Tax19.35%35.64%32.52%-- 33

34 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Share Data & Growth 34 2011SearsTargetWal-MartIndustry Median Per Share Data Revenue$396.82$99.80$125.55$81.55 Dividend--$1.05$1.40$0.26 Cash Flow$0.10$7.77$6.93$3.82 12-Month Growth Figures Revenue(1.63%)3.11%3.34%2.82% Net Income(43.40%)17.36%14.33%45.94% EPS(40.20%)21.21%12.37%44.77% High revenue per share offset by consistent revenue decline Extremely low CF per share and tremendous decline in Net Income and EPS High revenue per share offset by consistent revenue decline Extremely low CF per share and tremendous decline in Net Income and EPS

35 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Financials 35

36 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Follow the Trend

37 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Follow the Trend

38 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Follow the Trend

39 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Valuation  Traditional ways of valuing a company  Discounted Cash Flow Sears has negative cash flows though…  Multiple Comparisons Sears has negative multiples though…  Bankruptcy Valuation Essentially look at all of Sears’ total assets and divide that by the number of shares 39

40 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Sears Valuation  Book Value per Share  $71.92 40 When extrapolating this trend: Sears will depreciate to zero in Total Equity in 9.6 years

41 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Follow the Trend 41 Depreciating assets, as Sears’ fleet of stores depreciates in value from age and disrepair Commercial Real Estate Crisis continues to decrease storefront value Online shopping continues to grow at expense of big box stores Industry emphasis towards smaller stores means that no one will even buy Sears’ old storefronts

42 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Analyst Price Estimates

43 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Technicals 43

44 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Relative Strength Index (RSI) 44

45 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Bollinger Bands 45

46 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Volume 46

47 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Short Squeeze 47

48 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Share Performance  Valid question to be asking:  “If Sears is performing so badly, then why has the stock gained 60% in the past few months?” 48 Short Squeeze

49 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Short Squeeze Overview 49

50 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Short Squeeze Overview 50

51 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Proposal  Short 50 shares of SHLD at:  Market Price (approximately 52.5)  Grand Total of ~$2600  Short term time frame (2-4 months)  Watch reaction after earnings next Thursday 51

52 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Announcements 52

53 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Stock Competition  Investopedia Trading Simulator  $100,000 in Virtual Money  Full Trading Platform (Short Selling, Options)  Weekly Leaderboard Update  Game Name: MICC Stock Competition  Password: Cornell 53

54 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Stock Competition 54

55 Mutual Investment Club of Cornell Brainteaser  What’s the difference between the hour and minute hand when the clock strikes 4:20? 55


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