1. www.chrisbilder.com1 of 27 Turning data into knowledge to solve real world problems Christopher R. Bilder, Ph.D. Department of Statistics University of Nebraska-Lincoln www.chrisbilder.com

2. 2 of 27 11 years ago…  The year is 1993  Pearl Jam records second CD, Vs., –Daughter, Go, Elderly Woman Behind the Counter in a Small Town  Bill Clinton was inaugurated as the 41 st president  Movies –Jurassic Park –Sleepless in Seattle  Husker football –1993 season went undefeated  Math 4750 - Introduction to Probability and Statistics II –4-5:15PM Tuesdays and Thursdays in DSC 164 –Dr. Stephens

3. www.chrisbilder.com3 of 27 11 years ago…  Actuarial Science! –Planned to be an actuary when I started college –Internship at National Indemnity Company at 32 nd and Harney –Passed 4 exams under old system  Wanted to go on to graduate school –Math? –Actuarial Science?  Hypothesis testing in Math 4750 –Use for decision making! –Scientifically prove a hypothesis or statement –Go to graduate school for statistics!  1994 received BS in Mathematics with pre-actuarial science minor from UNO

4. www.chrisbilder.com4 of 27 After UNO  Went on to graduate school for statistics –MS 1996 from Kansas State University –PhD 2000 from Kansas State University –Internships at INEEL in Idaho and pharmaceutical company in Kansas City –Consult with students and professors in sociology, agriculture,… –Taught courses like Statistical Methods I and II (STAT 3000 and 3010)  Assistant Professor at Oklahoma State University –Department of Statistics –2000-2003  Assistant Professor at UNL –NEW Department of Statistics –2003-present

5. www.chrisbilder.com5 of 27Purpose  Tell you a little about statistics –Statistics is mainly a graduate discipline –Most statisticians have undergraduate degrees in math  Turning data into knowledge to solve real world problems –3 actual examples that come from my teaching and research  About statistics at UNL  Website (www.chrisbilder.com/statistics) for more information

6. www.chrisbilder.com6 of 27  Undergraduate teaching example for a course like STAT 3000 for math and non-math majors  How could you determine which grocery store, Super Wal- Mart or Albertson’s, has lower average prices? –Paired or dependent two sample hypothesis test for  Wal-Mart -  Albertsons –Sample the same items at each store Grocery store prices

7. www.chrisbilder.com7 of 27  Undergraduate teaching example for a course like STAT 3000 for math and non-math majors  How could you determine which grocery store, Dillon’s or Food-4-Less in Manhattan, KS, has lower average prices? –Paired or dependent two sample hypothesis test for  Dillon’s -  Food-4-Less –Sample the same items at each store  Only cereals from Fall 1998 –Possible problems described later Grocery store prices

8. www.chrisbilder.com8 of 27 Grocery store prices  Sample:

9. www.chrisbilder.com9 of 27 Grocery store prices  Do you think there are mean differences? 25% 75% 50%

10. www.chrisbilder.com10 of 27 Grocery store prices  Paired two sample hypothesis test –H o :  Dillon’s -  Food-4-Less =0 H a :  Dillon’s -  Food-4-Less  0 –t = 4.77, p-value = 0.0002, 95% C.I.: 0.1644 <  Dillon’s -  Food-4-Less < 0.4274 –Reject equal mean prices  If price was the only consideration, what store should one shop at?  Assumptions –Are prices and selection at these two stores indicative of all stores? –Normal populations –The sample was taken in 1998; what about now? –Finite populations

11. www.chrisbilder.com11 of 27  MS report – applying statistics to new problems or investigating new methodology –120 page book! –Reduced version published in Chance in 1998  Find a model to estimate the probability of success for placekicks in the NFL  Video –January 7, 1996 –Playoff game –Indianapolis Colts 10 Kansas City Chiefs 7 –Lin Elliott of KC will attempt a 42 yard field goal to tie the game and send it into overtimePlacekicking

12. www.chrisbilder.com12 of 27Placekicking  What factors affect the probability of success for NFL placekicks? –Distance –Pressure – How do you quantitatively measure? –Wind –Grass vs. artificial turf  Collected data >1,700 placekicks during the 1995 NFL season  Find the best logistic regression model of the form where p is the probability of success x i for i=1,…,k are independent variables  i measures the effect of x i on p for i=1,…,k

13. www.chrisbilder.com13 of 27Placekicking  The  i ’s are parameters which are estimated through maximum likelihood estimation  Estimated model –Change: lead change = 1, non-lead change = 0 –Distance: distance in yards –PAT: point after touchdown = 1, field goal = 0 –Wind: windy (speed > 15 MPH) = 1, non-windy = 0  What is the estimated probability of success for Elliott’s field goal? –Conditions: –Estimated probability of success: –90% confidence interval for probability of success: 0.6298 < p < 0.7402

14. www.chrisbilder.com14 of 27 Estimated probability of success for a field goal (PAT=0) 42 0.685

15. www.chrisbilder.com15 of 27Placekicking  UNL Department of Statistics developing statistics in sports specialty –Dr. David Marx Works with the UNL athletic department January 10, 2004 Omaha World Herald article about his work the men’s basketball team (available at www.chrisbilder.com/statistics) His students this semester have worked with NASCAR, Lincoln SE women’s high school soccer team, and Tendu, Inc. (baseball software company). –Myself Placekicking Modeling 64-team NCAA tournaments

16. www.chrisbilder.com16 of 27 Hepatitis C prevalence  MS/PhD research – forwarding statistical theory and methodology  Hepatitis C –Viral infection that causes cirrhosis and cancer of the liver –Screening blood donors is important to prevent transmission  Questions: –How can blood be screened in a cost effective and timely manner? –What proportion of people is inflicted with Hepatitis C in a population?  Individual testing –Each blood sample is tested individually –Problems: Costly Time + or - 

17. www.chrisbilder.com17 of 27  Group testing –Pool the blood samples together to form n groups of size s –If the GROUP sample is negative, then all s people do not have the disease –If the GROUP sample is positive, then at least ONE of the s people have the disease –Strategy works well when prevalence of a disease is small –Dorfman (1943) – first used to test members of the military for disease Hepatitis C prevalence + or -  Group 1 Group 2 Group n

18. www.chrisbilder.com18 of 27 Hepatitis C prevalence  Multiple vector transfer designs –Swallow (Phytopathology, 1985) –Want to estimate the probability a insect vector transfers a pathogen (virus, bacteria, etc.) to a plant Brown planthopper Whitebacked planthopper

19. www.chrisbilder.com19 of 27 Why statistics?  Statistics is used in many diverse areas! –Statistics is the “science of science” –Florence Nightingale quote: the most important science in the whole world: for upon it depends the practical application of every other science and of every art: the one science essential to all political and social administration, all education, all organization based on experience, for it only gives results of our experience.  I hope you have an interest to take more statistics courses –UNO –Graduate school in statistics or non-statistics programs  Of course, I want you to consider coming to UNL!

20. www.chrisbilder.com20 of 27 Statistics at UNL  Facts –July 1, 2003 formed –11 faculty + 2 more in 2004 –No undergraduate major –40+ MS and PhD graduate students (most MS) –Strong commitment from administration –Hardin Hall on East Campus

21. www.chrisbilder.com21 of 27 Statistics at UNL 33 rd st. Department of Statistics

22. www.chrisbilder.com22 of 27 Statistics at UNL  Background of new students –A few statistics courses – like UNO MATH 4740 and 4750 –Statistics is mainly a graduate discipline –Majority have math degrees  Recommendation for UNO classes (I took the classes in yellow) –Math 4740 and 4750 Intro. to Probability and Statistics I and II –Math 3300 Numerical Methods –Math 4760 Topics in Modeling –Math 4050 Linear Algebra –Math 4230 and 4240 Mathematical Analysis I and II Helpful if you plan to go on for a PhD –Stat 3000 and 3010 Statistical Methods I and II

23. www.chrisbilder.com23 of 27 Statistics at UNL  Recommendation for UNO classes (continued) –Business administration course: 3140 Business Statistical Applications –Computer science programming courses –Information Systems & Quantative Analysis Department courses 4150 Advanced Statistical Methods for IS&T 8160 Applied Distribution Free Statistics 8340 Applied Regression Analysis 9120 Applied Experimental Design and Analysis 9130 Applied Multivariate Analysis

24. www.chrisbilder.com24 of 27 Statistics at UNL  Assistantships –Work 16-20 hours a week –Teaching - $13K per school year + tuition (MS students) –Project Fulcrum grants - $30K per school year! 6 statistics students over the past 3 years have received grant –Research - variable depending on grants Statistics and non-statistics faculty grants  What makes us unique? –Consulting course and help desk –STAT 971 – Statistical Modeling –Statistics in sports and work with UNL athletic department –Consulting - All departments in the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources –Gallup Organization –Bioinformatics

25. www.chrisbilder.com25 of 27 Statistics at UNL  Where do statistics graduates work? –Pharmaceutical – Pfizer, Merck –Marketing – Target, Hallmark –Government research labs – INEEL, Los Alamos, Sandia, Argonne –Agriculture - Pioneer Hi-Bred –Consulting firms – Quintiles –Every statistics student that I have known has had a job offer before they graduated!  Salaries –Non-academic starting (2003 American Statistical Association survey) –Survey response rate was 23.5% by organizations surveyed –See salary surveys at the American Statistical Association’s website

26. www.chrisbilder.com26 of 27 Statistics at UNL  Applying for graduate school in statistics –Send out applications before end of fall semester –Apply to more than one school –Visit schools in fall or early spring –Assistantship offers usually first go out in March  7 th Annual UNL Regional Workshop in Mathematical Sciences –Statistics, Mathematics, and Computer Science departments –November 2004 –Friday afternoon & evening and Saturday morning –Speakers introducing statistics and jobs in statistics –FUNDING available!

27. www.chrisbilder.com27 of 27 Statistics at UNL  For more information… –E-mail me at cbilder3@unl.edu or chris@chrisbilder.com Advice Sit in on a class –Website: www.chrisbilder.com/statistics This PowerPoint presentation Links to –Introductory information about being a statistician –Jobs (including internships) –Salary information –List of all Departments of Statistics –Professional societies –MS and PhD course websites that myself and others teach –Newspaper and magazine articles about statistical applications