1. Environment Canada context: Climate and Air Quality M. Shepherd, Climate Research Division Science & Technology Branch November 18, 2013

2. Context Climate Adaptation  Climate impact studies  Climate services – targeted information to address adaptation challenge and reduce vulnerabilities Climate Mitigation Estimating climate response to individual forcers Clean Air Regulatory Agenda (CARA)  CACs and AQ / Weather feedbacks The Northern Strategy Advance our understanding AQ and climate response in the Arctic due to climate change, resource development, and marine traffic Build supporting science through integrated atmospheric research program, leveraging collaborations > NSERC CCAR NETCARE

3. The obligations to do this work UNFCCC Articles 4 and 5: monitoring and research CEPA: GHGs, Smog precursors identified as toxic substances under Schedule 1 Clean Air Agenda: Adaptation and CARA Renewal (2008 - 2016) Through Canada’s membership to the: –World Meteorological Organization (WMO),WMO –Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO),IOCUNESCO –United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and theUNEP –International Council for Science (ICSU).ICSU ▪Global Climate Observing System: (GCOS) ▪Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ▪World Climate Research Program (WCRP) ▪International Global Atmosphere Chemistry Program (IGAC) –Arctic Council – mitigation of SLCFs –UN ECE LRTAP Gothenburg Protocol – short lived climate pollutants

4. Why did EC support an aerosols focussed project? Climate projections continue to be challenged by uncertainties related to the role of aerosols (AR4, AR5). –Requires better processes understanding –Based on better / more observations AQ management needs improved source characterization (type, transport) and response to climate change. Demands a very intentional linkage between the observations and processes research with the model development

5. V. K. Arora et al. 2011 Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases. GRL doi:10.1029/2010GL046270 To reach ~2 o warming target, global CO 2 emissions must level off immediately, and decline to negative values before end of century (i.e. net CO 2 extraction from atmosphere);

6. Surface air temperature change (relative to 1986-2005 average) from CanRCM4 (44 km resolution, RCP4.5) CC

7. 2010 2030 2050 2090 CC

8. Gillett et al, 2011 Detection and Attribution – separating the response to various forcings

9. The collaborative approach to address specific program needs in EC To reap the benefit of the collaboration, and integrate the research results of NETCARE in EC programs and tools, EC contributes scientists, technicians, instruments and sites for observations and field campaigns (surface, ice breaker and airborne), data interpretation, and model development and evaluation. Rely on the academic community for scientific and technical contributions to the field work, atmospheric processes research and model development. Building on international collaborations and previous field campaigns (PAMARCMIP) To address key uncertainties in the prediction of aerosol effects on climate by using a variety of observational and modeling approaches, and; To use that increased knowledge to improve the accuracy of Canadian climate and earth system model predictions. Aerosol processes: ice nucleation, deposition Improved emissions characterization for ships and natural marine sources Transport and source region characterization CanESM and GEM-MACH Long term monitoring activities

10. Science Innovation Model & Method Development Model & Method Application User Accessible Climate Information & Data CanESM, CanRCM, CanSIPs Climate Trends, Variability & Extremes characterization Water Availability & Infrastructure Climate indices Snow and Sea Ice characterization GHG and Aerosols Baseline Monitoring Observations based GHG source estimates + trends Global and Regional Scale Climate Scenarios Adjusted Homogenized Climate Data Records and Climate Indices Snow Water Equivalent maps GHG and Aerosols Observations Annual GHG Source / Sink Estimates EC Climate Research Innovation Chain for Adaptation & Mitigation Decision Making User s NMHS’s Regional Climate Consortia Academic Institutions Federal & Provincial Sector Based Ministries National Sector Associations Private Sector Global and Regional Model Testing & Evaluation Evaluating Statistical Methods for Climate Analysis Inversion and Assimilation Methods for Source Characterization Instrumentation Atmosphere – Surface Processes Parameterization Atmospheric Chemistry Parameterization Atmosphere, Ocean, Cryosphere, Terrestrial Model Development Statistical Methods Development for Climate Variables Analytical / Instrument Testing for GHG and aerosol monitoring Conceptual model July 8, 2013 NSERC CCAR Projects

11. Preparing now for contributions to IPCC 6 th Assessment …

12. CanESM4 AGCM4 OGCM4 CTEM CMOC CanRCM4 AGCM4 Chem CMAM Strat/Meso AGCM3 CanCM3 AGCM3 OGCM3 COUPLER AGCM4 OGCM4 COUPLER CanCM4 CanSIPS ACCMIP CCMVal-1 CCMVal-2 CORDEX CMIP5 GEOMIP MJO-DPIP CMAM30 CCMI SHFP CHFP GLASE-2 CMIP5 IceHFP Current Model Suite Unification CMIP6 Model Suite – strat/trop chemistry – carbon cycle Development – AGCM dynamical core – ocean model (NEMO) – AGCM physics (eg aerosols, clouds) – land surface – ocean/land biogeo- chemical physics – sea ice CanESM5 AGCM5 OGCM5 CMAM CMOC5 CTEM5 COUPLER CanRCM5 CMAM CTEM5 AGCM5 CanCM3 AGCM3 OGCM3 COUPLER AGCM4 OGCM4 COUPLER CanCM4 CanSIPS CanCM5 AGCM5 OGCM5 COUPLER CTEM5 CMOC5 CMAM Climate Model Development

13. Physical PropertiesChemical Composition (direct measurements) Light Absorption derived BC Light Scattering Optical Depth Particle # Size Distribution Inorganic Speciation EC/OC Conc. (thermal evolution technique) EC/OC 13 C isotopes (thermal evolution technique & IRMS) 1 + 10 µm Calculated from Brewer and NOAA AOD Optical Particle Counter (coarse) Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) Condensation Particle Counter (CPC) Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) Optical Particle counter (coarse) 3-w PSAP Aethalometer 7-w 870 nm PAX* 2012 1-w Nephelometer 870 nm PAX* 2012 Hi-vol paper filter W14 Open filter, no size cut* 7-day int sample <1 µm Teflon filter Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) Quartz filter 14-day integrated TSP 7-day integrated <1 µm Aerosol Monitoring Multiple objectives and network optimization to support atmospheric process studies, model evaluation, estimation of source trends / impacts, and evaluation mitigation implementation

14. Specific policy interests, where scientific uncertainties are related to aerosols Complementing CO 2 mitigation with Short Lived Climate Forcer reductions ( methane, black carbon and ozone ). Geo-engineering – solar radiation management Seasonal to inter-annual to decadal forecasts Regional to smaller scale climate scenarios, polar regions AQ and Weather / Climate feedbacks Role of open ocean / sea ice Intercontinental transport to Arctic and Western Canada

15. EC contributions  Technical support for instrument integration with the POLAR 6 prior to each of the studies in 2014 and 2015.  Technical support for integration of instruments with M300 data acquisition system prior to each study in 2014 and 2015.  In-field technical and analytical support at Resolute summer 2014.  Field site access (Uccelet, Alert, Eureka, Whistler, Resolute…), fuel and campaign logistics  Scientific personnel for campaign coordination, data analyses, model development by the EC scientific investigators

16. AGCM5 OGCM5 CMAM CMOC5 CTEM5 COUPLER AGCM5 OGCM5 COUPLER CTEM5 CMOC5 CMAM CanESM5 CanRCM5 CanSIPS CanCM5 CMAM CTEM5 AGCM5 SMOKE Regional Data Canada & US GEM Meteorology Transport Chemistry Interface Global Emissions Emission Interface Gas Phase Chemistry Aerosol Module Equilibrium Scheme CABM NETCARE EC Tools and Programs

17. BLUE: CO2 ~ 420 ppm in 2100 GREEN: CO2 ~ 540 ppm by 2100 To reach ~2 o warming target, global CO 2 emissions must peak immediately and decline to negative values before end of century blue RCP 2.6 (i.e. net CO 2 extraction from atmosphere); or to reach ~3ºC target, global emissions must level off immediately green RCP 4.5. 2ºC average global warming target Pre-industrial era