1. COMBINE –Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection M. A. Giorgetta, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg IS-ENES kick-off meeting, 30-31 March 2009 Call: FP7-ENV-2008-1, ENV.2008.1.1.4.1 Funding scheme: Collaborative project Partners: 22 Duration: 48 months (plan: 01.05.2009 – 30.04.2013) Status: in negotiation EC sci. officer:Philippe Tulkens

2. Partners in COMBINE, and their involvement in IS_ENES 1 Coord.Max Planck Society / MPI-M 2Met Office 3CNRS 4CMCC 5MF - CNRM 6KNMI 7Univ. Bergen 8Danish Met. Institute 9ECMWF 10ETH Zürich 11Finnish Met. Institute 12PBL 13SMHI 14Univ. Wageningen 15Univ. Helsinki 16CERFACS 17UCL 18Univ. Bristol 19Univ. Kassel 20Tech. Univ. Crete 21Cyprus R&E Foundation 22INPE

3. Selected key questions in climate research Do internal modes of variability exist in the climate system that allow skillful climate prediction on decadal time scales? What is the nature of these modes? Initialization methods and data? In which regions does predictability exist? For which time scales is a prediction skillful? (5, 10, 20 years?) What is the role of different processes and related feedbacks for climate sensitivity and climate change on the centennial time scale (until 2100 and longer)? Carbon and nitrogen cycles (and methane) Clouds aerosols and chemistry Stratospheric dynamics Cryosphere: sea ice and ice shields How to develop new mitigation scenarios? F( impacts( climate change( RCP scenarios, feedbacks ) )

4. The project in a nutshell New components (WP1-5) (C1) Carbon and nitrogen cycle (C2) Aerosols, clouds and chemistry (C3) Stratosphere (C4) Cryosphere (C5) Initialisation ESMsDifferences (E1) ESMD Α (C(i)) = (E2) – (E1) (E2) ESM + C(i)D Ω (C(i)) = (E4) – (E3) (E3) newESM – C(i)D Σ (Σ j C(j)) = (E4) – (E1) (E4) newESM Centennial Simulation (WP6) (CS1) Pre-industrial control (CS2) 20 th century (CS3) 21 st century scenario (RPCs) (CS4) +1% CO 2 / year to 4xCO 2 ESMs (M1) COSMOSMPG (M2) HadCM, HadGEMMETO (M3) IPSL-ESMCNRS (M4) CMCCCMCC (M5) CNRM-CMMF-CNRM (M6) EC-EARTHEC-Earth cons. (M7) NORCLIMUiB Decadal Simulation (WP7) (DS1) Climate prediction (2005-2035) (DS2) Climate hindcasts Impacts, and scenarios (WP8) Impacts in sectors and regions Scenarios Obs. and re-analyses CMIP5

5. Example: Exploring CMIP5 expts in ENSEMBLES Method proposed for the future CMIP5 experiments, i.e. experiments for the 5th IPCC assessment of climate change (Hibbard et al., 2007): Concentrations Surface temperature Emissions 2B 1 2A Carbon cycle - climate model Impacts in regions and sectorsStory lines (Mitigation) Scenario

6. E1 scenario (Van Vuuren et al., 2007) Equivalent CO2 concentration stabilizes at 450 ppm Sulfate aerosol decreases quickly  near pre-industrial levels at 2100  less cooling in early 21st cent. Land use change consistent with assumptions in the IMAGE model Well mixed greenhouse gases as prescribed in the E1 scenario.: [ppm] [ppb] -1000 ppb [ppb] [ppt] CFC-11* includes the radiative forcing from all minor CFCs. CO2 [ppmv] 20502100 SRES A2522836 SRES A1B522703 SRES B1482540 Ens. E1435421

7. Global surface air temperature anomalies Initially stronger warming in E1 than in A1B because of faster reduction in sulfate aerosol loading, hence less cooling. Reduce warming in E1 after 2040 Warming in 2100: ~4°C in A1B and ~2°C in E1  Climate – carbon cycle feedback will differ after 2050 Historic 1950-2000 A1B 2001 – 2100 E1 2001 – 2100 Global annual mean surface air temperature anomalies w.r.t. 1860-1880 (°C) ECHAM5/MPIOM incl. carbon cycle

8. Implied CO2 emissions 1950 to 2100 Implied CO2 emissions of E1 scenario drop sharply after ~2015 (unlike emissions for A1B scenario) Implied emissions are reduced by climate - carbon cycle feedback 2100: -2 GtC/yr in E1 and -4.5 GtC/yr in A1B Implied emissions of E1 close to 0 in 2100 (still positive). Historic 1950 – 2000 A1B 2001 – 2100 E1 2001 – 2100 Implied CO2 emissions with and without climate – carbon cycle feedback (GtC/yr) without feedback with feedback ECHAM5/MPIOM incl. carbon cycle

9. Summary In COMBINE we hope to make some interesting science w.r.t. The role of different processes for feedbacks that regulate climate change Predictability on the decadal time scale related to the internal variability of the climate system and initialization techniques Impacts in sectors and regions for RCP scenarios Iterative improvement of mitigation scenarios. And we hope for a fruitful interaction with IS-ENES: Infrastructure support in archiving, and dissemination of large data sets for the full project lifetime (CMIP5 and beyond) Generally more transparent supercomputing and data processing infrastructure at the European and international level.

10. Thank you

11. COMBINE & IPCC-AR5 time lines

12. Work packages and PIs New components (WP1) C and N cyclePierre Friedlingstein (CNRS) Chris Jones (METO) (WP2) Clouds, aerosols, and chemistryUlrike Lohmann (ETH) Heikki Järvinen (FMI) (WP3) StratosphereElisa Manzini (CMCC) Neal Butchart (METO) (WP4) CryosphereShuting Yang (DMI) Masa Kageyama (CNRS) (WP5) InitialisationDoug Smith (Doug Smith) Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF) CMIP5/AR5 + Evaluation (WP6) Decadal climate predictionRein Haarsma (KNMI), Silvio Gualdi (CMCC) (WP7) Climate projections and feedbacks Christoph Heinze (UiB), Johannes Quaas (MPG) (WP8) Impacts, regional feedbacks and Scenarios Pavel Kabat (WU) Daniela Jacob (MPG) Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)

13. Text of call FP7-ENV-2008-1 Area 6.1.1.4. Future Climate ENV.2008.1.1.4.1. New components in Earth System modelling for better climate projections Future climate predictions necessitate development of models which incorporate more complete range of Earth System parameters in comparison to the existing ones, as well as the Earth System feedbacks on future climate change. Incorporation of Earth system components (e.g., chemistry, stratosphere, nitrogen cycle, aerosols and ozone, cryosphere, ocean biochemistry and carbon sink, human dimension) within climate models and applications of these to a number of case studies (e.g. decadal-timescale prediction). Implications of these feedbacks for impacts of climate change on different sectors (e.g. water resources, agriculture, forestry, air quality) through specific simulations. Expected impact: The project outcome should contribute to the 5th IPCC assessment on climate change and provide solid scientific basis for future policy actions at European and international level …

14. Pert diagram

15. Motivation for this study United Nations Framework on Climate Change: Article 2: ‘The ultimate objective of this Convention... is to achieve,..., stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.’ Questions relevant for IPCC AR5 What anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are feasible for a CO 2 conc. pathway? Were are anthrop. carbon emissions stored in the system? What is the resulting climate change for a given CO 2 pathway? What is the role of feedbacks between climate change and the C cycle:  for climate change?  for feasible carbon emissions? CMIP5 protocol provides description of experiments for the investigation of these questions in a coordinated multi model ensemble. European ENSEMBLES project: Mitigation scenario E1 (Van Vuuren et al., 2007).  Stabilize the anthropogenic radiative forcing to that equivalent to a CO2 concentration at around 450 ppm during the 22nd century.  To match the European Union 2°C target. Apply E1 scenario and CMIP5 experiments to address questions listed above

16. Pre-industrial control simulation Climate of undisturbed system stable over 1000 years, no systematic drift in surface air temperature or CO2 concentration Surface air temperature (left scale, °C) Atmospheric CO2 concentration (right scale, ppmv) Global annual mean surface air temperature (°C) and CO2 concentration (ppmv) Pre-industrial conditions, thick lines: 11-year running means

17. Global annual mean surface air temperature Simulated surface air temperature less variable than observed. Natural sources of variability like volcanic forcing or the 11 year solar cycle are excluded from the experiment. Simulated warming in 2005 slightly underestimated. Global annual mean surface air temperature anomalies w.r.t. 1860-1880 (°C) 5 year running means simulated (5 realizations) observed (Brohan et al., 2006)

18. Global annual mean CO2 emissions 1860 to 2005 Model allows for relatively higher emissions before 1930. Minimum in 1940s Similar emissions in 2000. Implied emissions from simulations Observed (Marland et al., 2006) CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (GtC/yr) Global annual mean; 11-year running means

19. Carbon release and uptake by land, 1860 – 2005 Simulated land use emissions smaller than observed, especially in 1960-2000 Simulated land uptake sationary from 1920 to 1960. Observed land-use emissions (Houghton, 2008) Simulated land-use emissions Simulated net land uptake Simulated land uptake Carbon release from land use emissions and uptake by land (GtC/yr), Positive = land-to-atmosphere flux; Model: 11-year running means,

20. Simulated carbon uptake 1860 to 2005 Ocean carbon uptake very similar to land uptake Reduced uptake in 1950s Simulated carbon uptake (GtC/yr) 11-year running means Simulated ocean uptake Simulated land uptake (as on previous figure)

21. Momentum, Energy, H 2 O, CO 2 Ocean MPIOM 3°L40 HAMOCC Land HD JSBACH Atmosphere ECHAM5 T31/L19 ~4° Solar variations Volcanic aerosol CO 2 emissions/conc. Carbon cycle climate model Natural forcing Anthropogenic forcing Land use change CH 4, N 2 O, CFC conc. Carbon cycle – climate model XX

22. Experiments E1 450 ppm SRES A1B 186019001950200020502100 Historic 1860-2005 Control “1860” 1000 yr Ensembles of 5 realizations

23. Carbon uptake by ocean and land 1960-2000 50% of simulated fossil fuel emissons remain in the atmosphere In 2000: simulated ocean uptake = ~2 x simulated land uptake Remaining in the atmosphere Absorbed by ocean Aborbed by land Fraction of simulated fossil fuel emissions (%)

24. Accumulated C emissions: Coupled – Uncoupled Climate – carbon cycle feedback reduces implied carbon emissions until 2100 by 180 (E1) to 280 (A1B) GtC. Historic 1860 – 2000 A1B 2001 – 2100 E1 2001 – 2100 Reduction in accumulated C emissions by climate – carbon cycle coupling (GtC) (11-year running means)

25. Fig.12

26. Fig.13

27. Surface C uptake: Coupled – uncoupled Regions with negative differences take up less carbon under global warming conditions and contribute to a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle. Stabilization scenario E1 (2080 to 2100) IPCC SRES scenario A1B (2080 to 2100)

28. Table 1

29. Table 2