1. Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan
June 5, 2007
Jeongim Park

2. Outline 1 2 3 4 Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP)
Study Scope and Methods 3
Premature Deaths–Related Benefits from SAQMP 4
Summary and Future Improvements

3. Seoul Metropolitan Area

4. Seoul Metropolitan Area
Gyeonggi
11.7 %
46.6 %
4 times
44.7 %
46.3 %

5. Air Pollution Trends in Seoul
Tokyo
New York

6. SAQMP’s PM10 Goal Statement

7. You will see the Yellow sea from Namsan, the center of Seoul!
Special Law for Improving Air Quality in Seoul Metropolitan Area (2004)
You will see the Yellow sea from Namsan, the center of Seoul!

8. SAQMP measures (partial list)
Source
Policy / Measure
Description / Example
Point
Emission trading
Fuel regulation
Emission standard
Voluntary agreement
Emission allowance allocation for large sources
Promotion of low-sulfur fuel
Stricter standards for small industrial sources
Monitoring and assisting voluntary program
Area
NOx source management
Demand management
VOCs management
Promotion of low-sulfur fuel and natural gas
Promotion of low-NOx boilers
Eco-building certification
Fugitive VOC regulation for industrial process
On-road vehicle
Clean vehicle
End-of-pipe equipment
Fuel standard
Stricter emission standards for new cars
Promotion of electric of hybrid cars
Subsidy for DPF/DOC/SCR installation
Stricter standards for vehicle fuel quality
Congestion charge, parking regulation, upgrading
public transportation service
Off-road vehicle
Stricter emission standards for new vehicle
Stricter sulfur contents regulation for ship fuels
Subsidy for DPF and SCR installation

9. Emission Reduction Potentials from SAQMP

10. Study Goal
To estimate the health benefits from implementing the SAQMP in 2014
PM10 reduction
Premature mortality (acute effect)

11. BenMAP Framework Data Input to BenMAP Results from BenMAP Data Input
Population
Data
Population
Estimates
Geographic
Grid Definitions
Population
Exposure
Air Quality
Monitoring
Air Quality
Modeling
Health
Functions
Incidence
Prevalence
Adverse
Health Effects
Valuation
Functions
Economic
Benefits

12. Analysis Materials Spatial Scope
Seoul Metropolitan Area (Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi)
Target pollutant
PM10
Population data
Age/sex categorized data of administrative boundaries (National statistics)
Emission data
CAPSS 2001 (Provided by Ministry of Environment)
Air Quality data
Monitoring data in 2001
MM5/CMAQ modeling data
2014 BAU (Business As Usual)
2014 Control (with SAQMP implemented)
C-R Functions
(acute mortality)
= (RR=1.015, Seoul, )
= (RR=1.025, Incheon, )
(long-term effects = , Krewski et al, 2000)
Baseline incidence
death rates in 2005 ( )

13. Population (year 2001)
9,200 ~
347,780

14. PM10 Distribution: 2001 Monitoring
49~88 ug/m3

15. Air Quality Modeling : MM5/CMAQ
CAPSS, ACE-ASIA
EMISSION
MM5
(Meteorological Modeling System)
Gas Phase
chemistry

16. PM10 Distribution : 2001 Modeling
24~106 ug/m3

17. PM10 Distribution : 2014 BAU
27~122 ug/m3

18. PM10 Distribution : 2014 Control
12~54 ug/m3

19. PM10 (2014 BAU –2014 Control)
15~75 ug/m3

20. Health Impact Functions
CHANGE in
health effects (Δy)
from the baseline
to the control scenario
CHANGE in
pollution (ΔPM)
from the baseline to the control scenario

21. Health Effects Change-required data
Air Quality
Change
Effect
Estimate =
Incidence
Population * * *
Concentration Units: ppm, ppb, μg/m3
Measurements: maximum, average
Measurement Intervals: hourly, daily, annual
Data Sources: Air Quality Monitoring data (NIER) Air Quality Modeling (using CAPSS)

22. Health Effects Change-required data
Air Quality
Change
Effect
Estimate =
Incidence
Population * * *
Pollution Effect Units:
change in health effect rate per μg/m3, ppm, ppb;
unit change in health effect per μg/m3, ppm, ppb
Measurements Interval: hourly, daily, annual
Data Sources: epidemiological studies

23. Health Effects Change-required data
Air Quality
Change
Effect
Estimate =
Incidence
Population * * *
Health Effects Units:
mortality: number of deaths per 100,000; individual risk of death
morbidity: number of new bronchitis cases per 100,000; annual risk of an asthma attack; number of hospital admissions per 100,000
Measurements Interval: daily, annual
Data sources: National Statistical Office; National Health Institutes; Published papers, etc.

24. Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)

25. Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)

26. Value of Statistical Life (VSL)
Valuation Methods
Revealed preference approaches
Hedonic pricing (ex) labor market, property markets
Averting behavior (ex) smoke alarms
Stated preference approaches
Contingent valuation method:
Choice Modeling: Choice experiment(or Conjoint analysis)
Resource Cost techniques
Cost of Illness(COI)
Human Capital Approach(HCA)
Benefit Transfer
The transfer of existing estimates (STUDY CASE) to a new study which is different from the study for which the values were originally estimated(POLICY CASE)

27. PPP: Purchasing power parity
Benefit Transfer
Benefit Transfer Method
VSL(Korea, 2001) = VSL(USA,2000)*Radj
Radj = (ppp(2000)kOREA /ppp(2000)USA )
 [per capita GDP(2000)kOREA/per capita GDP(2000)USA]
 [GDP deflator(2001)kOREA/GDP deflator(2000)KOREA]
PPP: Purchasing power parity
Point Estimate
Distribution P1
(scale parameter) P2
(shape parameter)
USA(2000,$)
6,324,101
Weibull
5,320,000
KOREA(2001,$)
2,361,882
1,986,877,239

28. Summary
PM10-related health benefits from implementing the SAQMP were analyzed using the BenMAP software
More than 2,000 avoided premature deaths were estimated with putting the SAQMP into action (short-term effects only)
The economic value of the deaths avoided was estimated to $4.8billion.

29. Thank you!! Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan