1. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo State of the Planet: Energy Resources and Global Development Jeffrey Chow, Raymond J. Kopp, Paul R. Portney EE 563 Graduate Seminar -Winter 2004 Dr. Harris Summary: Newlyn Hui Critique: Akihiro Oi Date: 6 February, 2004

2. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Energy Resources and Global Development Abstract: The economic and environmental consequences are addressed by issues of availability and consumption of energy resources. Problems arise from dependence on combustible fuels. No primary energy source is free of environmental and economic limitations. Adoption of environmentally friendly energy technology are based on political and economic realties.

3. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Introduction Energy is the lifeblood of technological and economic development… Topics to Address: Availability of Global Energy Resources How and by whom the energy is used Consequences of global distribution Use of energy resources

4. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Availability of Global Resources World is not running out of mineral fuels Recoverable reserves continue to increase keeping pace with consumption Facts: Recoverable Fossil Fuel Reserves 1 Trillion Metric Tons of Coal 150 Trillion Cubic Meters of Gas Mineral Resource Reserves 3 Million Metric Tons of Uranium World Annual Consumption (Year 2000) Coal – 0.5% of Reserves Natural Gas – 1.6% of Reserves Oil – 3% of Reserves Uranium for Nuclear Electricity – 2% of Reserves

5. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Fossil Energy Reserve and Economic Development Fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in small number of countries Half of low income countries and over a third of middle income countries have no fossil fuel reserves Access to international energy markets is a key to economical development (such as Japan) Well-functioning socioeconomic system enables extraction and deployment of energy resources for social well being Countries with corruption in energy production can not enjoy its benefit

6. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Global Energy Resources Total global energy exceeds 370 Exa-joule per year equivalent to over 170 million of barrels of oil each day 95% of this energy are from fossil fuel Primary Resources: 44% Petroleum 26% Natural Gas 25% Coal 2.5% Hydroelectric Power 2.4% Nuclear Power 0.2% Non-hydro Renewable Energy

7. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Energy Use Applications: Industry Transportation Agriculture Commercial and Public Services Residential Developing Countries: 1.Residential 2.Industrial 3.Transportation Industrialized Countries: 1.Transportation 2.Industrial 3.Residential

8. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Annual Energy per Capita Disparity between industrialized countries and developing countries in annual energy consumption Industrialized country use 3-14 times more energy than developing countries in any application Developing Country: equivalent of 6 barrels of oil annually per person Industrialized Country: 40 barrels per person People of the poorest 10% of countries consume less than 1 barrel of oil equivalent per year per capita where the richest 10% consume over 60x as much

9. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Energy Use per Dollar of GDP Although individuals in higher-income countries consume substantially more energy than those in developing countries, higher- income countries are actually more efficient in terms of the energy intensity of GDP

10. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Dependence on Fossil Fuel Continued dependence on fossil fuel due to lack of convenient alternatives Transportation network brings higher demand in fossil fuel: Developing countries only consume less than 3% for transportation what the richest countries use Developing countries are expanding their transportation network

11. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Emissions from Fossil Fuel Between 1980 and 2001: Energy consumption increase: petroleum (22%), coal (27%), and natural gas (71%). Emissions from fossil fuel: 5 bill. to 6.6 bill. metric ton of carbon equivalent. Emission of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases facilitate the formation of heat trapping troposphere ozone. Global climate change: Not only increased mean temperature but also more frequent extreme climate events bring consequences to the ecosystem, agriculture, and human welfare.

12. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Extraction of Fossil Energy Fossil fuel exploration require seismic testing and road building that can harm wildlife habitats. Replacement of habitat with infrastructure. Oil spills, toxic byproducts onto local environment. Acid rain, smog, nitrogen loading from releases from coals and petroleum combustion.

13. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Drawbacks of Alternative Energy Hydroelectricity: Human settlement and terrestrial habitat. Nuclear Power: Objections to waste disposal and weapons. Wind-Powered Turbines: Installation of infrastructure and death of birds. Wind, Solar, Geothermal Systems: Capital intensive, geographically limited, lack of power storage. Hydrogen Fuel Cell: Requires need for fossil fuel as hydrogen fuel stock.

14. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Growing Concerns Drive Us toward Alternative Sources Growing environmental concerns make shift to alternative energy before scarcity becomes significant Policy Mechanisms: Environmental Standards Fuel and emission taxes Subsidies for renewable energy production Emission permit, trading schemes Successfully implemented in U.S. to reduce non-carbon air pollution, improve air quality and reduce acid rain

15. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Making Renewable Energy More Competitive in terms of Prices By subsidizing renewable development, at the same time, bringing them in the market by disadvantaging fossil fuels. 1.Adoption of a variety of R&D polices, such as subsidies, that would drive the price down and improve the performance of renewable over fossil fuel. 2.Raise the price of fossil fuels through carbon taxes or permits.

16. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Developing Countries are not Taking The Same Path Cleaner energy efficient technology becomes cheaper Developing countries are adopting new technologies by bypassing more wasteful and polluting ones Examples: Smaller and less capital intensive micro-turbines and renewable sources rather than large centralized power plants More efficient High Voltage DC transmission lines

17. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Conclusion Transition to alternative energy resources comes: When supply of fossil fuel will become too costly – but this will probably not happen for the next 25 to 50 years Or if governments artificially increase fossil fuel prices The support for change only comes when societies and governments decide that the benefits of fossil fuel do not make up for their negative effects on the environment and human welfare

18. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Critiques Strengths of Arguments Statistic Data Analysis Balanced Paper Weaknesses of Arguments Paper Lacks Wider Perspectives Is There a Third Path?

19. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Strengths of Arguments Statistic Data: Up-to-date and good amount of statistic data provided for energy consumption Balanced Paper: Authors also discuss about drawbacks of alternative energy Authors take a neutral position and do not overstep to advocate a particular stance

20. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Strengths of Arguments Good Analysis in: World is not running out of fossil fuel Projection of more fossil fuel demand by expansion of transportation network in developing countries Bypassing of old technologies long used in industrialized countries and adoption of cleaner and more efficient ones

21. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Weaknesses of Arguments Is There a Third Path? (1) Authors assert political and economic realities are only driving forces for change If this is true, dependence on fossil fuel will continue for future; because government policies are greatly influenced by economic interests rather than environmental concerns

22. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Weaknesses of Arguments Is There a Third Path? (2) Authors claim economical development is necessary for transition of energy rescues But what are negative impacts? Can we enjoy continuous growth of economy? How globalization impact us for energy?

23. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Weaknesses of Arguments Is There a Third Path? (3) Consumers can be a driving force for change? Authors lack perspectives in terms of conservation and recycle Need to gear toward less energy consuming society and social welfare Such as Europe and Japan

24. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Questions

25. Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo Thank You