1. Los Angeles, Feb 24 nd, 2011 Alan Kay Viewpoints Research Institute Designing The Future of Software Vanguard

2. “News” can be told in a few minutes “New” = learning, longer & change News

3. News: Behold! New: Fiat Lux! van der Waals forces

4. A Vanguard Talk 45 Minutes!

5. Software Has Fallen Short Best of 1970s Best Practice of Today What is Needed Today Quality Bar 1 Quality Bar 2 Quality Bar 3 General Practice Today General Practice of 1970s Quality Bar 4 Quality Bar 5 Quality Bar 6 1980... Quality Bar 7

6. Technology Tinkering Engineering Mathematics Science Computer Software Yikes!

7. PeopleNature Forms Engineering Sciences Stories Painting Theater Music Language Religion Mathematics Physics Chemistry Biology Anthropology Psychology Sociology Systems Bridges & People “The Arts” from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics Agriculture Buildings Radio & TV Telephone Engines Electric Power Mechanics Bridges

8. PeopleNature Forms Engineering Sciences Stories Painting Theater Music Language Religion Mathematics Physics Chemistry Biology Anthropology Psychology Sociology Systems Bridges & People Bridge Science “The Arts” from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics Bridges Agriculture Buildings Radio & TV Telephone Engines Electric Power Mechanics

9. PeopleNature Forms Engineering Sciences Stories Painting Theater Music Language Religion Mathematics Physics Chemistry Biology Anthropology Psychology Sociology Systems Bridges & People Bridge Science “The Arts” from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics Bridges Computer Systems & People Computer Systems Computer Science Agriculture Buildings Radio & TV Telephone Engines Electric Power Mechanics

11. Coping Social Language Culture Fantasies Stories Tools, Art, Technologies Goals, Plans... Play & Games Fixed Rules, Flexible Strategies Case based learning Case based reasoning Superstition Religion/Magic Theater Differences over Similarities Quick Reactions To Patterns "The Other" Supernormal Responses Vendetta Value Shortages **Loud Noises & Snakes Human Universals About 300 of these have been identified

12. Coping Social Language Culture Fantasies Stories Tools, Art, Technologies Goals, Plans... Play & Games Fixed Rules, Flexible Strategies Case based learning Case based reasoning Superstition Religion/Magic Theater Differences over Similarities Quick Reactions To Patterns "The Other" Supernormal Responses Vendetta Value Shortages **Loud Noises & Snakes Progress Writing & Reading Deductive Abstract Math Model Based Science Thought, Thought, Thought Equal Rights Democracy Similarities over Differences Slow Deep Thinking Legal System vs Vendetta Perspective Drawing Theory of Harmony Agriculture.... Human Universals And Non-Universals About 300 of these have been identified

13. Easy To Learn?

14. Average Price Of A Car In US = $28,500 Average Price Of A High End Laptop = $2,500

15. Most people can only experience the present in terms of the past Which means they can only conceive the future in terms of the present

16. Present Past Future

17. Present Past Future

18. What learning curve are you on? What if the problem is really hard? For decades many people in many countries tried and failed

19. What learning curve are you on? Paul MacCready “Everyone else was trying to make an airplane. We were trying to do human powered flight!” “The problem is that we don't understand the problem. How can we find out what the problem is?” What if the problem is really hard? If you don't know what to do, Do lots of things!

20. Change the roles and the relationships... IT End-Users Using network, automatically find the prototypes the end- users are making and sharing Use the prototype as good first pass at “requirements” Optimize Make more powerful end-user tools and access to resources... Editors, helpers Authors Suppliers, vendorsConsumers Apple reported more than 4 million users had made Hypercard apps with scripting A Golden Oldie

21. From Computer Aided Design Directly To Artifacts

22. about Ship The Design The “computer aided software design system” merges and debugs and “prints” requirements, specifications, and design *as* the app

23. 7 Big Designs From The 70s Small low cost powerful personal computers Bitmap displays and ½ Mouse Graphical User Interface OOP High quality laser printing Ethernet Internet

24. ?

25. About Dependencies “Semantic Caching”, etc.

26. A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take Go get the future and bring it back I wasn't naturally gifted in terms of size and speed; everything I did in hockey I worked for Wayne Gretzky Theory of the Future

27. The 30 Year “Wayne Gretzky Game” It would be ridiculous if we didn't have Now 10-15 Years Out 30 Years Out $ HW If we do optimize, then we can make “far future” apps We can do many experiments without having to optimize

28. Hardware is just SW crystallized early!

32. Field Programmable Gate Arrays

33. What is the message of Moore's Law? From Gears to Biology! Moore's Law

34. What is the message of “From Gears To Biology”? “No Centers” Extremely Scalable Architectures

35. What was late 70s early 80s message of Extremely Scalable “No Centers” Architectures? ?

36. What Can You Make With Bricks? 1 st Order Golden: 1 st Order Golden: Architecture Dominates Materials 2 nd Order Golden: 2 nd Order Golden: But more powerful materials allow more powerful architectures

37. What Can You Make With Bricks? 2 nd Order Golden: 2 nd Order Golden: But more powerful materials allow more powerful architectures a|b ? ? 1 st Order Golden: 1 st Order Golden: Architecture Dominates Materials

38. Try to achieve a scalable “ecology”, then a “psychology” Not a “biological ecology” but a “systems ecology” We want an “ecology of competencies” “architecture dominates materials” Not a “biological psychology” but a “systems psychology” “meaning dominates connections”