1. 21 st Century Commuting Patterns How is the Washington Area Different American Dream Coalition Alan E. Pisarski Reston Va. Dec. 4, 2008

2. We are a major NATIONAL region  Fairfax at 1 million = Richmond metro area  Northern Va. at 2 million+ is a major national metro area by itself (= Pittsburgh; approaching Baltimore metro area )

3. Attributes of the No Va Commuting World  Wealth and stability  Multi-worker households  A leader in carpooling  More transit than expected  Fewer autos/commuter than all but NY  Gov’t still focused on center  Highest level of cross-county commutes

4. That’s why travel times stink

5. And why we get up so early

6. Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income - 2001 USANo Va

7. HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE! WE CAN DO IT ---- IF WE ALL PULL TOGETHER!

8. HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE! WE CAN DO IT ---- IF WE ALL PULL TOGETHER! WE ARE ALMOST THERE!

9. We are rich because we work

10. Lots of cars

11. Mode shares 2007

12. Non-SOV mode shares 2007

13. Stolen from Bob Dunphy via Bob Chase

14. Va leads the nation in commuting out of residence county (Md #2)

15. Workers are our biggest export

16. WHAT HAPPENED IN FAIRFAX ! 1.Jobs rose and created balance with workers 2.Live/work; 85% of new workers 3.BUT IMPORTS BOOMED TO FILL REMAINING JOBS

17. Nice to lead the nation in something

19. Greater Mobility Makes Metro Areas Smaller And Bigger SMALLER  Easier Access to Jobs  to Services  Customer Markets  More affordable homes near work BIGGER  Distant areas now part of economic engine  Operate in world markets as a bigger player

20. The Challenge  Reaching skilled workers will be the key challenge for employers  Employers will go where the skilled workers are or where they want to be  Competition will be amenities-based  Good transportation will be one of the amenities  Metro areas that can meet this challenge will be the big winners

21. THANK YOU! Alan E. Pisarski PISARSKI@ALANPISARSKI.C0M 703 941-4257

22. USDC MSAARLALXFFXLOUPW Total:139,259,6842,783,114127,464 80,884 544,300146,544190,924 Car, truck, or van:120,442,1882,172,55279,031 56,973 460,479129,719167,456 Drove alone105,954,6561,878,64568,593 51,477 404,899114,130133,935 Carpooled:14,487,532293,90710,438 5,496 55,58015,58933,521 2-carpool11,139,037211,3788,446 4,325 41,61211,18319,255 3 carpool1,963,01848,9111,361 317 9,3192,0338,906 4 carpool1,385,47733,618631 854 4,6492,3735,360 Transit6,800,512371,13733,176 18,576 42,5742,4728,993 Walked3,954,21082,4196,900 1,657 9,3732,0953,085 bike, other2,386,15233,6822,680 1,143 6,1222,4462,700 Worked at home5,676,622123,3245,677 2,535 25,7529,8128,690 Total: 100.00% Car, truck, or van: 86.49%78.06%62.00%70.44%84.60%88.52%87.71% Drove alone 76.08%67.50%53.81%63.64%74.39%77.88%70.15% Carpooled: 10.40%10.56%8.19%6.79%10.21%10.64%17.56% 2-carpool 8.00%7.60%6.63%5.35%7.65%7.63%10.09% 3 carpool 1.41%1.76%1.07%0.39%1.71%1.39%4.66% 4 carpool 0.99%1.21%0.50%1.06%0.85%1.62%2.81% Transit 4.88%13.34%26.03%22.97%7.82%1.69%4.71% Walked 2.84%2.96%5.41%2.05%1.72%1.43%1.62% bike, other 1.71%1.21%2.10%1.41%1.12%1.67%1.41% Worked at home 4.08%4.43%4.45%3.13%4.73%6.70%4.55% CP + T 15.29%23.90%34.22%29.76%18.03%12.32%22.27%

24. THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT Location, Amenities, Flexibility  The increases in services in the economy will permit more population to act on location preferences as workers and employers are less tied to resources and more attracted by amenities.  Areas of the country will compete for workers on the basis of life-style, climate, and ease of living. Good transportation will be one of the competitive amenities.  Employers will be forced to be more flexible in schedules and benefits to attract workers.

25. Parsing the sprawl topic  An ideal gov. program – no definition of problem or measures of success!  Amorphous, ill defined goals –  What is public and what is private?  What is federal and what is local gov.?  Role of transportation  Public preferences

26. “Efficiency” in transportation; BEWARE!  A Very Dangerous Word  THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT?  Transit is a more “efficient” vehicle!  The key to all transportation is the efficiency of the users – passengers and freight – not the vehicles  That’s why trucks not trains – cars not buses  One colossal pizza delivery per night per neighborhood is “efficient”! THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!

27. “ BLAMING TRANSPORTATION FOR THE PROBLEMS OF SPRAWL IS LIKE BLAMING HEALTH CARE FOR THE PROBLEMS OF OLD AGE.” Brad Mallory, Sec DOT, Pa.

28. The sprawl debate diverts us from the real issues  Lack of workers/skilled workers  Mainstreaming minorities  Safety  Serving an aging population  Responding to pressures of time  enhancing economic opportunities  Global competitiveness

29. % LEAVING COUNTY TO WORK 1990  U.S. 23.9% 2000  U.S. 26.7%  Va. 52% 2007  U.S. 27.4%  Va. 52.5% COMMUTERS SPRAWL? ACCESS? OCCUPATIONS ?

30. The great loss from congestion is not the extra three minutes it takes to get home HOUSEHOLDS  It’s the decline in the number of jobs I could reach in ½ hr!  It’s the decline in the number of affordable homes accessible to my work!  It’s the decline in the assurance of arriving on time! BUSINESSES  It’s the decline in the number of workers within ½ hr of my employment site!  It’s the decline in the number of suppliers & customers within ½ hr of my business!  It’s the decline in ship- ment reliability!

31. THE FAIRFAX STORY 1

32. THE FAIRFAX STORY 2

33. THE FAIRFAX STORY 3

34. THE FAIRFAX STORY 4

35. Where did residents work?  Added 47,000 new workers  40,000 Workers stayed in County  15,000 fewer toward center  21,000 more toward edge & ring

36. WHAT HAPPENED IN FAIRFAX ! 1.Jobs rose and created balance with workers 2.Live/work; 85% of new workers 3.BUT IMPORTS BOOMED TO FILL REMAINING JOBS

37. Arlington – not quite perfect yet!

38. Transportation Makes Cities Both Smaller and Bigger  Smaller in that the times to traverse distances are reduced  Bigger in that a city knitted together with effective transportation acts bigger economically socially

39. A VERY POSITIVE FUTURE  Problems More Operable Today  The Resources to Respond are there People, Technology, Political & Financial  MUST RECOGNIZE CENTRAL ROLE OF MOBILITY IN OUR SOCIETY  MUST BE WILLING TO ACT TO FOCUS RESOURCES

40. A VERY POSITIVE FUTURE  Problems More Operable Today  The Resources to Respond are there People, Technology, Political & Financial  MUST RECOGNIZE CENTRAL ROLE OF MOBILITY IN OUR SOCIETY  MUST BE WILLING TO ACT TO FOCUS RESOURCES

41. The Demographic Story a New Phase in American Commuting 1.The Commuting in America series has been the history of the working years of the baby boom generation 2.The Boomers are now moving off stage creating a new phase in American commuting. 3.The key will be where will the new workers come from? 4.Advent of the immigrant workforce will be just one of the challenging concerns

42. #1 GREAT INCREASES IN WORKERS LEAVING HOME COUNTIES TO WORK  1990 23.9% of workers left home county  2000 26.7% (2007 almost 28%)  90’s - 13.2 meg. new Workers 51% Left home county (6.7 Meg.)  00’s - Of 5 meg. new workers 55% left home county (2.6 Meg.)  Wash DC Area leads nation!