Presentation on theme: "Energy Situation, Security and Policy of China Dr. FENG Fei Development Research Center State Council, PR China."— Presentation transcript:
Energy Situation, Security and Policy of China Dr. FENG Fei Development Research Center State Council, PR China
Great Energy Achievement (80’and 90’) Energy density decreased 64% total from 1980-2000, and would wide only 20%, OECD 19%.
Industry structure ( heavy industries vs. light industries) Heavy Light
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2010 2020 Projection of energy demand by 2020 10000×TEC
Challenges The enormous scale of China’s prospective energy needs, unrestrained, raises concern about resource adequacy. Supplying unrestrained needs on this scale will result in unacceptable environmental damage. Growing oil import dependence causes an increasing sense of insecurity and will impose greater burdens on the economy.
Oil consumption and import (1993 – 2005) Oil consumption and import growth rate was 17.5% and 35.0% in 2004, but -0.3%, -5.26% in 2005.
Energy Security 94% energy supply comes from domestic resource in 2005, and about 80% in 2020. Energy import dependency is much lower than the major countries. Ranking 2nd larger consumer following US, but oil consumption is only less 1/3 compared with US. Oil demand will be 450 million ton by 2020. Oil import dependency will increase to 60%.
Energy Security Securing of domestic supply. Establish the oil strategic reserve. Geographic Diversify. International cooperation.
Long term target: 2000 – 2020 : quadruple its GDP by 2020 while only doubling its energy use. Mid term target: 2006 – 2010 : energy consumption of per unit of GDP will reduce 20%.
Huge energy saving potential energy consumption per unit of product of eight major industries (electric power, iron & steel, nonferrous metal, petrochemical, building material, chemical light industry and textile industries) was on average 40% higher than the most advanced world level.
unit 19802000 China Develo ped Countri es Gap （ % ） China Develo ped Countrie s Gap （ % ） Coal-fire generation gec/kwh448338+32.5392316+24.1 Steelkgec/ton1201705+70.4781646+20.9 Cementkgec/ton203.8135.7+50.2181125.7+44.0 Ethenekgec/ton20131100+831212714+69.7 Trucksl/100km.ton8.73.4+188.8.131.52+123.5 Energy consumption of major product compared with foreign good level
Priority Policy: Improve the energy efficiency. Changing the economic growth pattern. Improving the standard of energy consumption for building and enforcement. Establishing the fuel economy standard for vehicle, and fiscal policy and alternative technology. During 2006-2010, if the population of vehicle doubles and fuel consumption should increase only 50%.
Energy Consumption By sectors (2000 vs. 2020) 2000 2020 Industry Building Transportation
Securing and Improving energy supply 2005, the National People’s Congress passed the Renewable Energy Law. 10% of energy consumption from renewable sources by 2010, 18% by 2020, 30% by 2030 and 50% by 2100.
Structure of Electrical Capacity (2003 vs. 2020)
Environmental friendship energy Internalized the external cost. Control the SO 2 emission and others. Improving the emission regulation.
Technology innovation Making the National Mid and Long Term Science and Technology Development Program. Cleaning coal technology, energy saving technology, advanced nuclear power generation technology, fuel- saving and alternative energy vehicle (hybrid, fuel cell etc).
Marketing oriented reform Pricing reform, more flexible and enough economic incentive for energy saving. Introduce the competition in the electrical sector. Strength the regulation.