1. www.dreamchallenges.org

2. A crowdsourcing effort that poses questions (Challenges) about biology, modeling and data analysis: – Transcriptional networks – Signaling networks – Predictions to response to perturbations – Translational research DREAM: What is it? DIALOGUE FOR REVERSE ENGINEERING ASSESSMENT AND METHODS

3. Benefits of crowd-sourcing 1.Performance Evaluation – Unbiased, consistent, and rigorous method assessment – Discover the Best Methods – Determine the solvability of a scientific question 2.Sampling of the space of methods – Understand the diversity of methodologies presently being used to solve a problem

4. Benefits of crowd-sourcing, cont’d 3.Acceleration of Research – The community of participants can do in 4 months what would take 10 years to any group 4.Community Building – Make high quality, well-annotated data accessible. – Foster community collaborations on fundamental research questions. – Determine robust solutions through community consensus: “The Wisdom of the Crowds.”

5. Six Years of DREAM Challenge Seasons – 34 DREAM Challenges opened – More than 500 team submissions – 1000 cumulative conference attendees, – 60 papers written using DREAM Challenges, two edited books and a Special paper in PLoS One – Community email list includes > 7,000 participants DREAM Challenges Building communities of data experts since 2006

6. How Sage/DREAM Nurtures Challenge Communities Challenge webinars for live interaction between participants and organizers Community forums where participants can learn from each other Leaderboards on Synapse to motivate continuous participation Incentives to code-share: evolving models never before possible (machine learning + clinical insights Annual DREAM Conference to celebrate and discuss Challenge outcomes DREAM Challenge Leaderboard

7. Structure of a Challenge

8. Synapse and DREAM Challenges Cloud-based (Amazon) IRB-approved data repository Central hub for all DREAM Challenges Registration and messaging services Real-time Challenge leaderboards Provenance tools for data reproducibility Living archive of DREAM methods and winning source code … beyond a data repository …

9. CASE STUDY: Breast Cancer Prognosis Challenge Goal: use crowdsourcing to forge a computational model that accurately predicts breast cancer survival Training data set: genomic and clinical data from 2000 women with breast cancer Data access and analysis tools: Synapse Compute resources: each participant provided with a standardized virtual machine donated by Google Model scoring: models submitted to Synapse for scoring on a real-time leaderboard

10. Unique Attributes of the Sage Bionetworks/DREAM Breast Cancer Prognosis Challenge Open source with code-sharing: – Synapse’s computational infrastructure enables participants to use code submitted by others in their own model building – Winning code must be reproducible New dataset for validation of winning model: – Derived from approx. 200 breast cancer samples – Data generation funded by Avon – Winning model: the one that, having been trained using Metabric data, is most accurate for survival prediction when applied to a brand new dataset Challenge assisted peer-review – Overall winner submitted a pre-accepted article to Science Translational Medicine

11. Challenges DREAM 8.5 + 9 Registered Users Leader- board Forum Entries Unique Submissions Unique Teams Total1,78011,459669368159 2014: DREAM Challenge participation continues to increase

12. 2015 DREAM9.5 and 10 Challenges… So Far

13. Challenges with clinical impact  Ensemble methods that make use of best submissions to be tested in the clinic (grant under review)  Digital Mammography Challenge: Reduce the false negative rate in mammography screening  Modeling and simulation based Challenges??

14. Acknowledgements Sage Bionetworks  Stephen Friend  Thea Norman  Andrew Trister  Lara Mangravite  Mike Kellen  Mette Peters  Arno Klein  Solly Sieberts  Abhi Pratap  Chris Bare  Bruce Hoff IBM  Erhan Bilal  Kely Norel  Elise Blaese  Pablo Meyer Rojas  Kahn Rrhissorrakrai EBI  Julio Saez Rodriguez  Thomas Cokelaer  Federica Eduati  Michael Menden L. Maximilians University  Robert Kueffner, Univ Colorado, Denver  Jim Costello OHSU  Joe Gray  Adam Margolin  Mehmet Gonen  Laura Heiser Prize4Life  Melanie Leitnerr  Neta Zach NCI  Dinah Singer  Dan Gallahan ISMMS  Eli Stahl  Gaurav Pandey Columbia University  Andrea Califano  Mukesh Bansal  Chuck Karan Rice University  Amina Qutub  David Noren  Byron Long MD Anderson  Steven Kornblau Broad Institute  Bill Hahn  Barbara Weir  Aviad Tsherniak Merck  Robert Plenge BYU  Keoni Kauwe OICR  Paul Boutros UCSC  Josh Stuart