1. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Permaculture in the grand scale Ruralisation with ecounits

2. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Cheap energy will soon be a memory of forlorn times 1.Without cheap energy, phosphorus need to be recycled 2.Without cheap energy, supply lines need to be short 3.Without cheap energy, we have to rely on ecosystem services We are in trouble

3. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke We are in trouble Cheap energy will soon be a memory of forlorn times 1.Whithout cheap energy, phosphorus need to be recycled 2.Whithout cheap energy, supply lines need to be short (Clausewitz) 3.Whithout cheap energy, we have to rely on ecosystem services

4. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Therefore, we need a lifeboat

5. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Extraction horizons of phosphorus At higher energy price: ?? years 100 – 150 years At current energy price: Peak phosphorus

6. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Peak phosphorus is not a problem Phosphorus molecules does not wear out ! The ecounit is designed for phosphorus recycling ! The main thing is to avoid loss in an ecounit

7. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke a balanced agriculture a limited group of people a local recycling system Safe food supply and nutrient recycling requires:

8. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Balanced agriculture: Animals are fed with plants growing from their manure = about 80% recycling of nutrients PO 4 Feed Urin e One hectare: Balanced agriculture

9. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke.. but 3-4 kg of the phosphorus (20%) is exported as food The 3-4 kg amounts to the P content of the excrements from 5 persons PO 4 Feed Urin e Food Urine = 0,2 ha/pers One hectare: Limited group of people

10. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke.. these nutrients must be returned to close the cycle With source- separating toilets, these nutrients can be recycled PO 4 Feed Urin e Food Urine PO 4 = 0,2 ha/pers One hectare: Local recycling system

11. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke The eco-unit, a small population maintained by a permaculture agriculture Balanced agriculture Providing most of the human food and all of the animal fodder Area: 50 ha for 200 inhabitants Nutrient reclaim Landscape diversity Predator habitat Lee – planting Biomass production Open ditches Nutrients from the settlement is recycled to agricultural land Balanced agriculture, aimed at the support of the local population Small population, about 200, supported by the agriculture

12. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke The eco-unit Biological greywater treatment plant (wetpark) Clean water is returned to the households High diversity Perennial plants Co-operation Mutualism Nutrient circulation On-site consumption Water export by evaporation Feed PO 4 Food PO 4

13. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Economy

14. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Total energy investment: about 40.000 kWh / 4 pers Energy delivered to household: about 4.000 kWh/ 4 p. The energy economy of conventional food production Energy invested in agriculture: about 4.000 kWh/ 4 p. Energy invested by middlemen: about 36.000 kWh/ 4 p.

15. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke 0 kr 15 000 kr 30 000 kr 60 000 kr Annual consumer cost for food (four person Swedish family) 60.000 SEK Payment to producer, less than 25% Trade, distribution and processing about 75% of the total price Producer cost (fuel, interests etc.) 80% of producer payment Producer salary, about 3.000 SEK (5% of consumer cost) The economy of conventional food production

16. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Assume a group of consumers subscribe for food from a local farmer

17. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke They will drive the industry out of the market by paying the double industrial price (half of the consumer price)

18. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke 0 15 000 30 000 45 000 60 000 Expenses Salary Distribution and trade Because of the increased food diversity produced, the farmers’s expenses are assumed to increase with 50%..but the remaining is the farmers salary, which will increase 400% The consumer cost for the food decrease with 50% 13.000 18.000 60.000 30.000 12.000 3.000 The economy of ecounit food production conventional ecounit

19. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Total energy investment in food : about 8.000 kWh / 4 pers The energy economy of ecounit food production Energy invested in (conventional) agriculture: about 4.000 kWh/ 4 p. Energy invested local management: about 8.000 kWh/ 4 p.

20. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Let’s hope that the consumers will use their saved money to invest in the agriculture… Cheaper food Saved money Lesser energy price vulnerability

21. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke # The rules are: You can imagine the most ridiculous things But you have to render a statement of the effects # A scenario is an imagination made by a scientist The ruralisation scenario

22. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke The ruralisation scenario – start point In this scenario, the following is assumed: 4. They decide that, instead of building new houses on the same place as the old ones were torn down, they will build eco-units in the periphery of the town. At start point, the centre of the municipality has a population of 33 000 The periphery: 3 000 1. The city is inhabited by decision-makers who have the capacity to make far-sighted and strategic decisions 3. Furthermore, they understand that the city is not static, but dynamic. Old houses are torn down and new are built. (The average life-time for a house is supposed to be 60 years, which gives the city a rate of change of 1,6%) 2. They have the same knowledge of limiting resources, ecology and the rules for long-term survival as you.

23. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Ruralisation – after 12 years The town center: 24 000 The periphery : 12 000 Groups of four Eco-units Each group is inhabited by 800 people Local parks replacing the old houses

24. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Ruralisation – after 25 years The town : 12 000 The periphery : 24 000 Reversed ditching: Underground streams are brought to the surface Cleaner water

25. folkeg@gmail.com Folke Güntherhttp://www.holon.se/folke Ruralisation – after 50 years The endpoint of the ruralisation process: The municipality : 3 000 The periphery : 36 000 Area with 5,600 inhabitants in eco-units Population density closing to 500/km 2 High diversity Perennial plants Co-operation Mutualism Nutrient circulation On-site consumption Slow change Water export by evaporation By changing into a more resilient and less fuel dependent state, the ecological maturity of the area is considerably increased May be, the human impact on this area has changed from a parasitic to a supportive type