1. 333 A New Project – An Earth Systems Modeling Framework for Understanding Biogeochemical Cycling in the Context of Climate Variability A New Project – An Earth Systems Modeling Framework for Understanding Biogeochemical Cycling in the Context of Climate Variability Aquatic Atmospheric VIC : Hydrology CropSyst/RHESSys : Terrestrial Nutrient Dynamics Stream-flow Routing ColSim : Reservoir Operations & Withdrawals Unaltered Stream-flow Global NEWS: Nutrient Transport in Channels Nutrients, Sediment: Transport & Retention Altered Stream-flow, Reservoir Storage Regional Economics: Agricultural Nutrient and Water Use CCSM4: Global Climate WRF : Meteorology CMAQ : Atmospheric Chemistry MEGAN : Biogenic Emissions Coupled Land-Atmosphere Meteorology (T, P, U, V, W, Q, R) Soil moisture, LAI, canopy T & R Regional-scale T, P, R, & O 3, and deposition of NO 3, NH 4 +, Hg, and S Energy fluxes, soil moisture, surface albedo, and emissions of VOC, NO X, NH 3, N 2 O, & CO 2 Runoff & Baseflow; Irrigation Withdrawals Nutrients & Sediments Terrestrial Aerosol optical properties & CCN Large-scale T, P, U, V, W, Q, R First Steps: Land/Atmosphere 1-Way Linkages As a first step in developing BioEarth, we are conducting a variety of investigations to understand the one-way impacts and linkages between various components of the earth system. One such study involves using the simulated atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (ADN) data from the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and observed nitrogen deposition from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) as external inputs to the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) is a physical model that incorporates hydrology with relevant biogeochemical cycling within ecosystems. CMAQ is a comprehensive chemical transport model that explicitly accounts for wet and dry deposition of a suite of N gas and aerosol species. We will compare the sensitivity of RHESSys-simulated (short- and long-term soil and plant) biogeochemical processes to ADN inputs as determined by: Motivation: The 21st Century’s Grand Challenges include understanding how changes in the balance of nutrients -- carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, sulfur, and phosphorus -- in soil, water, and air affect the functioning of ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and human health. Project Goal: Our goal is to improve understanding of the interactions among carbon, nitrogen and water at the regional scale, in the context of global change, to inform decision makers’ strategies regarding natural and agricultural resource management. Approach: We are creating a modeling framework over the Pacific Northwest region by integrating a suite of state- of-the-art process-based models that are currently in existence and that are undergoing continuous development. The framework includes atmospheric models (for meteorology and atmospheric chemistry), land surface models (for hydrology, cropping systems, and biogeochemical cycling), aquatic models (for reservoir operations and nutrient export in rivers), and economic models. Mission: This project’s mission is to: develop skill in integrated modeling of biogeochemical cycles, explicate potentially important responses to climate variability, understand the information needs of both resource managers and stakeholders, and forge among them a partnership founded on a common understanding of our region’s dependence on regional biospheric health. Below are time-series data of wet nitrogen deposition for the HJ Andrews Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site in central Oregon (see map above) from the NADP. Planned BioEarth First Year Milestones Offline evaluation of component models. Further investigation into 1-way linkages between component models, e.g. CMAQ and RHESSys (as described above). Full coupling of VIC and CropSyst. Preliminary coupling of VIC and RHESSys. Update coupling between VIC and WRF. Principal Investigators: J.C. Adam, S.H. Chung*, B.K. Lamb, F.-Y. Leung, & J.K. Vaugha n, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University (WSU) M. Brady & J.K. Yode r, School of Economic Sciences, WSU Y. Chen, Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University R.D. Evans, School of Biological Sciences, WSU J.A. Harrison, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, WSU A. Kalyanaraman, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, WSU C. Kruger, Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, WSU A.B. Perleberg, Dept. of Natural Resource Sciences and Extension, WSU C.O. Stöckle, Dept. of Biological Systems Engineering, WSU C.L. Tague, Bren School, University of California, Santa Barbara A. Guenther, National Center for Atmospheric Research J.C. Stephens, Environmental Science and Policy Program, Clark University L.R. Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory *Poster Presenter Comparison of time-series NADP with default constant total atmospheric deposition of N in RHESSys. Observed wet/dry ADN depositions CMAQ-simulated wet/dry ADN (historical and future projected under climate change) Hypothetical perturbations of ADN: Chronic low level, chronic high level Spikes Long-term increase or decrease High: 1627.3 Meters Elevation (m) Low: 411.5 7,5005,0002,5000