Presentation on theme: "The ONS Longitudinal Study - plans for the 2011 Census and beyond"— Presentation transcript:
1The ONS Longitudinal Study - plans for the 2011 Census and beyond Jim Newman, Head of Longitudinal Study Development, Office for National Statistics
2Outline Overview of the ONS Longitudinal Study (ONS LS) Plans to link 2011 Census data to the ONS LSFuture of the ONS LS after the 2011 CensusONS LS resources and further information
3Definition of the ONS LS ‘The ONS Longitudinal Study is a studycontaining linked census and life events data ona one per cent sample of the population of England and Wales.’Note: A study, not a survey
4Structure of the ONS LS 1971 Census 1981 Census Entries Linked events 530,000 sample members selected513,000 traced1981 Census536,000 sample members selected528,000 traced1991 Census544,000 sample members selected535,000 traced2001 Census540,000 sample members selected536,000 traced2011 Census5??,000 sample members selected5??,000 tracedEntries264,000 new births164,000 immigrantsExits233,000 deaths39,000 emigrantsLinked events253,000 births to sample women2,000 infants deaths to sample women80,000 widow(er)hoods110,000 cancer registrations
5Census samples available for analysis 1971198119912001513,000528,000535,000536,0001 census408,000420,0002 censuses418,000327,0003 censuses331,000256,0004 censusesTotal traced LS members: 1,036,000
6Study cycle of an LS member 1950197019802010199020002001 Census1991 Census1981 Census1971 CensusBorn 1955EntryBirth #1Birth #2EventsExitRe-entryDeath of spouseCancerDeath(Exit from study)
7Census data Life event data ONS LS dataWhat does theONS LS contain ?Geographic dataEthnicity(1991 & 2001)Self-ratedhealth (2001)Long-term limitingillness (1991 & 2001)Religion (2001)Care giving (2001)Migration &travel to workEducation(all levels 2001)Census dataMarital status & family typeHousing & amenitiesOccupation &social classEconomicactivityLife event dataInfant deaths tosample mothersStill births toLive births toWidow(er)hoodsImmigrationsEmigrations(recorded)Births of ONS LSmembersCancerregistrationsDeaths(cause specific)Age, sex & country of birth
8High level plan to link 2011 Census data Census Day, 27 March 20112Delivery of 2011 Census link extract data files starts, one per delivery group3Delivery of full 2011 census data extract4Reporting to 2011 Census QA begins5Final processing report to Census QA covering all delivery groups6Full ONS LS census-to-census linkage analysis complete (equivalent to LS10 from 2001 Census)7Beta testing of ONS LS database incorporating 2011 Census data starts8Launch of ONS LS database incorporating 2011 Census data starts
92011 Census quality reporting Post-2001, ONS LS-based adjustment to population estimates2011 Census, report to Census during processingUndercountwho didn’t appear in the census, broken down by:agesexlocationmarital statusethnicity, etc.Overcountwho appeared more than once in the census, and whywithin household multiples, e.g. internet and paper responsestudents at home and term-time addressespeople at home and communal establishmentmovers enumerated at old and new addresseschildren of separated parents at both addresses, etc.
10Questions in the 2011 Census New questions in 2011:second residencenumber of bedroomscivil partnershipsQuestions being asked for the second time in 2011:caring responsibilitiesself-rated healthreligion
11Questions in the 2011 Census Questions on the themes of nationality/ethnicity/migration/religion:country of birthif born abroad, month and year of arrival to live in UK (’71)if arrived in the preceding year, intended length of stay (new)national identity (new)ethnic groupmain language (new)religionaddress one year agopassport held (new)
12Future direction for the ONS LS Short to medium termFully exploit the new LS databaseExpand LS user base, particularly within GovernmentUpdate annually with a fifth decade of life events dataCloser integration with sister studies in Scotland and Northern IrelandLong termWhat will we do in 2021?
13Centre for Longitudinal Study Information and User Support LS resources and further informationONS websiteCentre for Longitudinal Study Information and User Support