1. William van der Veld (University of Amsterdam) Willem Saris (ESADE Business School) Barcelona, 2005, European Association for Survey Research A UNIFIED MODEL FOR THE SURVEY RESPONSE Unifying Converse, Achen, Zaller and Feldman

2. 2 Overview The NES Panel 1956-1958-1960 Explanations for low response stability A unified model Unifying Converse, Achen, Zaller & Feldman Summary & Conclusion

3. 3 The NES panel 1956-1958-1960 Start of a controversy. Converse (1964): Government Intervention in Housing & Electricity 195619581960 19561.00 19580.371.00 19600.37 1.00

4. 4 Explanations for low response stability Several explanations have been suggested. 1964 Converse’s Black and White model 1975 Achen’s measurement error model 1992 Zaller & Feldman’s response axioms

5. 5 1964 Converse’s Black and White model What could cause a low correlation? The mass of the public have no stable opinion, a small elite have a stable opinion. No stable opinion => Random responses => Zero (small) correlations

6. 6 1975 Achen’s measurement error model What could cause a low correlation? Measurement instruments are unreliable, the responses will contain measurement error. Even if the opinion is stable the responses across time could be different by chance. Stable opinion & unreliable instruments => Random errors & random responses => Zero (small) correlations

7. 7 1992 Zaller & Feldman’s response axioms What could cause a low correlation? People have multiple considerations in mind, (that could be conflicting). The context of the survey question triggers different considerations that generate different responses. Unique context => Unique considerations & unique responses => Zero (small) correlations.

8. 8 A unified model - Foundations Semantic network, i.e. associations between nodes. Words in the question are associated with nodes. Hearing/Reading triggers activation of associations of nodes (spreading activation). Deliberate or automatically evaluations are made during the activation period. The evaluations are combined into an opinion, The verbalization of the opinion will introduce errors in the response.

9. 9 A unified model - Animation

10. 10 A unified model – Conceptual model

11. 11 A unified model – Structural Equations [standardized variables] => S t = s t,t-1 * S t-1 + N t O t = c t * S t + U t R tm = q tm * O t + e tm

12. 12 A unified model – Path model

13. 13 Unifying Converse, Achen, Zaller & Feldman Take the correlation between R 11 and R 23 : ρ R11,R23 = q 11 * c 1 * s 21 * c 2 * q 23 Converse (1964) => No stable opinion => [n=1] s=0 => ρ R11,R23 = 0 Achen (1975) => Measurement error => [e=1] q=0 => ρ R11,R23 = 0 Zaller + Feldman (1992) => Unique considerations => [u=1] c=0 => ρ R11,R23 = 0

14. 14 Summary and conclusion Association of nodes SE Model with special parameters Applying the arguments of C, A, Z &F implies certain values for the parameters This has the same consequence in our model: low correlations across time Is it possible to estimate the parameters of this model?

15. 15 Example Russet Panel study Design: Policies for national minorities Measured in 3 interviews, 1 year interval. Repeated measures in each interview. All (6) methods are different

16. 16 Example