1. Alan Pardoe Head of Marketing Communications
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030 The implications for airports
Alan Pardoe
Head of Marketing Communications

2. The Airbus Global Market Forecast
20 year aircraft demand forecast Aircraft >19 seats and payload > 10 tons Traffic forecast modeling 161 distinct traffic flows Detailed study of network evolution, including new routes, markets and deregulation hot spots Model the impact of evolving airline models e.g. Low cost carriers Fleet build-ups covering 869 airlines

3. The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF)
The GMF is a 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast
Market research
Deregulation / liberalisation
Competition
Low cost penetration
Consumer / travel surveys
Market segmentation
Regional / low cost / charter
Start-up / Network
Integrators
Traffic flows
Domestic / International
Traffic Forecast
Economics & Econometrics
Tourism
Fuel price
Yields
Trade / Value of goods
Network development
Aircraft economics
Airline operation economics
Origin-destination demand
Demographics
Geopolitics
Network evolution
Airport constraints not considered

4. Air travel remains a growth market
20-year world annual traffic growth
4.8%
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
ICAO total traffic
Airbus
GMF 2011
Air traffic has doubled every 15 years
Air traffic will double in the next 15 years

5. 20-year demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freight aircraft
Source: Airbus GMF
20-year demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freight aircraft
19,170 single-aisle aircraft
6,920 twin-aisle aircraft
1,680 very large aircraft
~27,800 new aircraft
Market value of $3.5 trillion
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

6. 20-year passenger aircraft demand for 26,900 aircraft
Fleet size
A forecast need for 16,422 additional aircraft
Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)

7. The Middle East accounts for 7% of global air traffic
Source: Airbus GMF
The Middle East accounts for 7% of global air traffic
2010 regional distribution of total RPK traffic per airline domicile
CIS 3%
Europe 27%
Middle East 7%
North America 27%
Asia 24%
Africa 3%
Latin America 5%
Pacific region 4%

8. Source: OAG, comparing month of September
The Middle East was the fastest growing region in terms of inter-regional ASKs
ASK growth: 2010 vs (Inter-regional passenger traffic)
CIS +146%
Europe +34%
Middle East +229%
North America +11%
PRC +124%
Africa +87%
India Sub-continent +141%
Asia – Pacific region +34%
Latin America +29%
The Middle East will account for 11% of global air traffic by 2030

9. Market value of $347 billion
20-year demand for almost 1,920 new passenger and freight aircraft in the Middle East
780 single-aisle aircraft
810 twin-aisle aircraft
330 very large aircraft
~1,920 new aircraft
Market value of $347 billion
2011 Airbus GMF: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

10. These strong growth rates result in demand for 1,880 passenger aircraft over the next 20 years
Fleet size
A forecast need for 2,260 additional aircraft in the Middle East region
Airbus 2011 GMF: Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)

11. Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth in fuel demand relatively flat
Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand
(Base 100 in 2000)
Traffic
+45%
Traffic growth
Fuel
+3%
Jet fuel demand
Source: CERA. Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)

12. Fuel efficient Airbus aircraft Families
Fuel efficient Airbus products will sustain future growth, curb fuel demand

13. The Middle East : Prime opportunity as the “connector” of inter-regional traffic
8300 nm
A320 Family
4500 nm
2500 nm
World
population:
40%
World GDP:17%
A330 Family
World population: 87%
World GDP: 64%
A350 XWB
A380 Family
Source: Global Insight, Airbus

14. Airbus aircraft families are space-efficient
< 80m wingspan < 65m wingspan < 36m wingspan
A320
A330
A350 XWB
A380
Airbus product make best use of ramp space

15. Over 105 million flight hours… 99.7% reliability
A320 Family
8 380 firm orders
deliveries
3 329 order backlog
The A320 Family continues to attract both new sales and new operators.
Over 105 million flight hours… 99.7% reliability
Data to end March 2012

16. Well-defined Airbus single-aisle product strategy
Efficiency
A320neo
Sharklets
Airbus has responded to fuel price increases with the A320neo
Today
2012
2015
Building on proven values

17. A320neo is a minimum change aircraft
Sharklets
New engines
The A320neo is designed to deliver maximum economic benefit.
Development will not be delayed or put at risk by attempts to add further features with lesser or marginal value.
High commonality with A320 Family
15% lower fuel burn and more range

18. A320neo offers environmental benefits
Annual fuel savings of 15% equate to:
1.4 m litres of fuel: the consumption of 1000 mid size cars
3,600 tonnes of CO2
the CO2 absorption of 240,000 trees
NOx emissions 50% below CAEP/6
500nm more range
or 2 tonnes more payload
Aircraft noise up to 15dB below Stage IV
The A320 neo also addresses the concerns of environmentalists

19. A320neo: new engine option
A320/A320neo compared
A320
A320neo
81”
More efficient engines
CFM LEAP-1A
PW1100G
Sharklets
68”
Efficient engines
CFM56-5B
IAE V2500
Wing tip fences
Not so evident from other angles, this head-on view clearly illustrates how much larger the neo engines will be compared with those fitted on current production aircraft.
A320neo: new engine option

20. A320: more revenue-earning potential
Containers or bulk loading of bags and revenue cargo

21. An A330 takes-off or lands every 28 seconds of every day
A330 Family
1 188 firm orders
860 deliveries
328 order backlog
The A330 is firmly established as the mid-market long-range aircraft of choice.
The A , with its extended range, continues to open and develop new markets.
The A has consolidated its position as the regional 300 seat champion and is making steady inroads into longer-range markets, displacing and replacing 777s
An A330 takes-off or lands every 28 seconds of every day
To end March 2012

22. A330 continuous development, increasing production
A with 238t MTOW
Now in service
330nm extra range or up to 3.4t more payload
A with 235t MTOW
Now in service
135nm extra range or up to 1.4t more payload
Higher takeoff weights without increases in airframe empty weight provide A330 operators with maximum gains of payload or range, extending the productivity of both the -200 and the -300
Increased productivity and higher revenues
Optional design weights * Vs 233t MTOW variant

23. A330 Family - super efficient twins
More and more airlines are recognizing the value of the A330 and seeking early production positions in order to start generating profits instead of waiting for the 787 with its oft-delayed and yet to be delivered promises.
In September 2011, China Eastern became the first airline to cancel its 787 order while increasing its commitments for A330 models by 15 aircraft.
Over 750 aircraft sold since the launch of the 787 ~ four years of production backlog

24. A330-200F: now open for business
Now proving its worth in service, the A F is an attractive alternative or complement to larger freighters, able to serve larger markets with greater frequency and to sustain and build service to smaller markets
MASKargo became the 4th operator upon delivery of its first aircraft in September 2011.
Up to 70t payload, up to 4,000 nm range

25. A330-200F Versatility – In service fleet
MMM-200X
A F Versatility – In service fleet
Operating in major and emerging markets

26. Airbus freighter offerings
A F
~65 to 70 tonnes / Up to ~4,000nm
2000
2010
2020
A330 P2F
~60 tonnes / Up to ~4,000nm
A RP2F
~47 tonnes / Up to ~2,500nm
Airbus, ST Aerospace and EFW have entered into a strategic partnership to launch the development of the A330 P2F
The first converted aircraft will enter into service in 2016
The A330 P2F, alongside the A F, will play a key role in the mid-sized freighter segment
The A330 P2F will complement the A F as of 2016

27. New freighter market worth US$ 200bn in the next 20 years
Freighter GMF 2010 – 2030
Traffic 5.1% Annual Growth Rate Freight traffic to almost triple in the next 20 years
Fleet 3.2% Annual Growth Rate Freighter fleet to almost double over the period
594
1,327
810
10t < payload < 30t
30t < payload < 80t
payload > 80t
New freighter market worth US$ 200bn in the next 20 years

28. Long-haul traffic will grow twice as fast as the network
Evolution of long-haul traffic and route network, 2010 = 100% [passengers and number of city-pairs]
Traffic
x 2.8
Network
x 1.4
Long haul traffic will grow 2x faster than the network. This means more of the traffic growth will be allocated to existing long duration flights (trans-pacific, etc.) rather than to new routes itself
You can imagine this occurring with the phenomenon of urbanization
Traffic will more than double – airport infrastructure will not: routes will get bigger
* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm

29. Airbus wide-body aircraft Families are complementary
Seats
The new reference for consolidating trunk routes A
Regional efficiency on long-haul routes A A
Route developers with point-to-point range capability A A
Range
Complete fleet solutions, matching network requirements today and tomorrow

30. Efficiency by design Airframe with advanced materials (53% composite)
State of the art aerodynamics (M0.85 cruise speed)
Simple, efficient systems
Latest generation engines

31. An Intelligent Airframe by design
MMM-200X
An Intelligent Airframe by design
Al/Al-Li
19%
Titanium
14%
Steel 6%
Misc. 8%
Composite
53% A
Material Breakdown (%)
Including Landing Gear
A350 XWB. New design, new materials

32. A350 XWB final assembly has started
MSN 5000 (static test) front and centre fuselage join-up
Toulouse – 5th April 2012

33. Trent XWB Flight Test Bed
Flight testing well underway
First flight of Trent XWB flight test bed on Feb 18th, 2012
MMM-200X

34. An A380 takes off or lands every 10 minutes
253 firm orders
19 customers
An A380 takes off or lands every 10 minutes
At end March 2012

35. Incomparable popularity
“A380 flights are almost always full. In all of my 40 years in the business, I’ve never known an aircraft to be so popular. People are especially keen to fly in the A380”.
Tim Clark
Emirates CEO interviewed by Süddeutsche Zeitung – 16th December 2011

36. 2030: 87 Aviation Megacities across the globe
In 20 years, nearly 90 cities will handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day
2030: 87 Aviation Megacities across the globe
Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus GMF. * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

37. The A380 network keeps growing Flying 55 routes to 29 destinations
London
Amsterdam
Montreal
Manchester
Frankfurt
Toronto
Beijing
Paris
Munich
Zurich
Rome
San Francisco
New York
Tokyo
Washington DC
Seoul
Guangzhou
Los Angeles
Houston
Shanghai
Miami
Dubai
Hong Kong
Jeddah
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Singapore
Sydney
Johannesburg
Singapore Airlines
Emirates
Melbourne
Auckland
Qantas
Air France
Lufthansa
Korean Air
China Southern
Additional airline-announced routes for 2012 shown dotted
Malaysia Airlines

38. A380 airport compatibility
Two aircraft, one gate.
A380s make better use of valuable ramp space
Photos: Fraport website, Sydney Airport website

39. Airbus today A full range of market leading products
A380 Family
A350 Family
A330 Family
A320 Family
A full range of market leading products
11,569 aircraft sold to 337 customers